American Idol Round of 2

[peteyboy]

Okay... Let's get this started.

Bad idea disagreeing with BDB, but that's what I'm gonna have to do here. Yes, Jordin, is supposed to win. Yes, she has the better voice. Yes, the producers want her to win. However! I think Blake has a groundswell of support from the teeny bopper crowd. And given how close Blake and Jordin appeared to be in the voting last week, the line of -350/+295 seems to be off. You want to tell me that Jordin is a 7.5 point favorite? Hardly. I think Blake has a legitimate shot at winning the whole thing. He is performing another Maroon 5 song this week -- She Will Be Loved -- which will get all the 16 year old girls squirming all over their couches. In addition to You Give Love a Bad Name - the bon jovi song he ripped a few weeks back. She's doing Christina Aguilera and Broken Wing - that country song she did a few weeks back.

In addition, our friends over at Zabasearch are predicting a Blake victory. http://www.zabasearch.com/ai_stats.php
They were spot on the last 2 weeks,even predicting Melinda getting the boot and apparently called the last 6 weeks correctly last year. Now, of course websites like this are to be taken with a grain of salt, with their claims of clairvoyance. After all, they are just running statistical analyses. Just another thing pointing in Blake's direction.

Personally I think the odds are skewed, and should be closer to -150/+135. There is so much hype about this being a 'singing competition' but we all know it's not. I think there were a couple posts last week about that... I don't think anyone can dispute the strength of Jordin's voice vs. Blake's, but he's got the teeny-bopper crowd out in full force and I think it's a lot closer than people think.

I have Jordin at 12/1 to win and Blake at 10/1 so I'm gonna win either way...But I'm going to take a good chunk of my Jordin profit and move it over to Blake at +295. I think he gets it done tonight.

 

[Marra]

I think there is value with Blake (I got him at 10-1 at the start) but I think he would be about even money IF that no talent ass clown Taylor Hicks didn't win last year.

 

[Chadman]

If he is doing a Maroon 5 song and approaches a repeat performance of his effort on the Bon Jovi song, I would put my money on the longer odds in this case. I think it's a tossup, considering what he is supposedly performing.

HOWEVER, now there is no division of the previous female/black votes...they will all more likely go to Jordin than Blake, I would guess. That number alone, if it were to happen, should be enough to put her over the top if she does well.

I'm still thinking Blake will be more cool and collected in this spot than Jordin will. And that could matter.

Long story longer, I think it's a tossup, so I would bet the dog before the competition tonight. Neither winning would surprise me, as I thought it would be these two in the final long ago. Gotta take the odds in a tight one.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

Not much left. The end is near. Each contestant sings two songs of their choice and the same sappy love ballad that is the winners first single.

Jordin wins. Period end of story. Blake has little value and can't win. Sorry, thats the facts ma'am.

Paula Abdul has a broken nose tonight. LOL


Here's what they are singing.

Jordin Sparks:

Broken Wing- Martina McBride. Absolutely killed this last time, her best performance on the show.

Fighter by Christina Aguilear

Winners Song

Blake Lewis:

She Will Be Loved - Maroon 5

You Give Love a Bad Name - Bon Jovi

Winners Song


My boy Chris Daughtry is also performing the elimination song "Home"


Guests for tomorrows finale:

Kelly Clarkson
Taylor Sucks
Carrie Underwood
Doug E. Fresh (not kidding)
Brittany Spears (rumor)

Sold my 50 shares of Blake for 23 earlier yesterday. It's dead money.

Have 50 left of Jordin. Will collect the 5k on Wednesday night bringing my total close to 10k on the season.

Barring disaster and Blake somehow winning which he won't, I still make over 4k for the season.

Not bad for a stupid tv show if you get over the homophobia.

Congratulations Jordin Sparks, AI Winner 2007.


gl

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

real quick, as to the validity of zabasearch, I know they predicted Melinda like I did last week. BUT, they use public access files like phone records which are made available to the public. BUT again, they are only helpful after the voting has taken place. How can they possibly measure the phone lines before anyone has voted? AND they have changed their picks before.

I wish I could say good luck, and I like Blake as well, but he won't win.

gl

 

[peteyboy]

Thanks BDB, as always, for your help.

Oughta be an interesting couple evenings.

 

[The Sponge]

NOt sure if anyone has odds on that Flavor of love charm school show but i think i picked something up a few shows back that gave the winner and it is the same thing i picked up one survivor series and it won with only a few shows completed. I know the show is stupid but its money and the girl that looks asian (the stripper) i think is the winner. I really think this is worth throwing some coin on if i could only find a place to bet it. Well, good luck fellas with your picks tonight. I can't wait to see Taylor Hicks tonight. Im a big fan. Was he the gray hair guy or the one with the snagletooth?

 

[Chadman]

I think you are being a little too dismissive of Blake's chances, BDB, but I wish you luck on cashing out. I have nothing riding on it, and actually like both singers in the final, so wishing luck to the bettors.

I still think Blake has a shot considering what he is performing, but agree Jordin would be the favorite.

Looking back at past winners, I think that has to tell you what is possible on a one night scenario.

Thanks for the update on the performers tonight...should be a pretty good show, except for Freshie...that is...:shrug:

If any of you have not heard Daughtery's CD yet, it's really good. A couple pretty middle of the road poppy songs on there that I don't care for, but some really well sung, good instrumental songs on that CD. He does one song featuring Slash from G&R that really rocks. He's just a great singer, not a pure voice, but really strong and solid on the notes. Recommended.

Enjoy the show, peeps.

 

[StevieD]

For what it is worth I like Jordin better than Blake. Giving Blake his props though his Bon Jovi song, in my opinion, was the best of any song all season. That being said, to me, everything else he has done sounds the same.
Jordan, not as steady as Blake. I would also like to see her act her age. But I think she wins.

 

[Sun Tzu]

If there was ever any doubt - Jordin will win in a landslide.

I even think she would have outspit the spitter tonight - wiped the floor with his pansy ass.

Feel pretty good that I got on that one many weeks ago.

 

[BahamaMama]

FWIW, i prefer Blake. If given the choice to see one of the two in concert would prefer a showman. Wayne Newton doesn't have a great voice by any means, but even at 17, when my parents DRUG me to one of his concerts in Vegas, i'd willingly go at any time past then. Showmen/women are better IDOLS

 

[NBA_Kid]

Maybe Idol wants to rethink the winner from last season:shrug:



Nice closing act by Daughtry :00hour


Where the hell is Taylor Hicks anyways?:142smilie

 

[Blitz]

My boy Chris Daughtry is also performing the elimination song "Home"

Was that supposed to be tonight or tomorrow night?

By the way, my 12 year old daughter is a big fan of Jordin. She is calling some votes in for you BDB...GL

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

Was that supposed to be tonight or tomorrow night?

By the way, my 12 year old daughter is a big fan of Jordin. She is calling some votes in for you BDB...GL

haven't seen it yet

but i heard jordin was far and away superior. not that its much of a surprise. i heard the sappy love song was even tailor made for her and it was unfair to blake, but that's life.

thank your daughter, but from everything i've read it doesn't look like i'll need much help. its a pretty sure thing.

and i heard chris was great. i loved that guy last year and downloaded his album this year. i like it. can't wait to hear him perform.

it was tonight blitz at the very end. i was told to have my tivo record ten minutes later to hear him cause the show ran late.

gl everyone.....

 

[Blitz]

Yeah, I guess my DVR stopped recording just before he came on...

 

[The Sponge]

Yeah, I guess my DVR stopped recording just before he came on...

Me to. I actually rewound the sucker thinking i missed it somewhere. Told my brother that this thing is cutting the last few minutes off of some shows and is there a way to fix this. He says it is in the book. Anyone know where the book is?

 

[freelancc]

'this is my now' :shrug:

:moon:

 

[peteyboy]

Buh Bye Blake...

Still think he got absolutely farked by that awful awful song. Producers get what they want. Ah well.

Thanks for everybody's input all season long.

 

[loungelizard]

absolutely agree with peteyboy, what a crappy song for a guy to have to try and sing. Congrats Jordin fans.

 

[Chadman]

Watched the show and think at this point that Jordin will win it. My opinion on the three performances by each:

Song One: Blake KILLED Jordin on this matchup. That song Jordin did had nothing to offer anyone, IMO, did not feature her skills, and would not be a good one for anyone. I think she would have gone home earlier in the year or not even made the show had that been a performance earlier. Blake ripped through Bon Jovi, again, and was terrific. Big edge to Blake.

Song Two: Blake did pretty well in a song that requires a good singing performance. It's a very likeable song for a contemporary audience, but not really memorable. Middle of the road effort. Jordin hit Broken Wings again, and did terrific, although I just don't get the country tie in. She definitely won Round Two, but I would still have Blake ahead overall after two songs.

Song Three: Blake suffered through the performance - another Idol crap song - and it probably lost him the competition. No way to sugarcoat it, he clearly was out of his element on the final grab for votes. Jordin sang the song well, although it is a weird song, hard to really grab onto or drive home. She won this matchup easily, and everyone knew she would. It's a pity that the competition is usually won or lost on the songs Idol wants to sell records with - they have been terrible right down the line.

My opinion is that specifically due to Blake being pigeonholed into Jordin's wheelhouse category on the last song, she went ahead of him and should win. Life isn't fair, and the upside (if BDB is correct and Blake will get to do his own record now) is that Blake will shine on his own without releasing that crap song.

Thanks for all the discussions this year. Already ready for next year, and some new "babeage." Maybe one of them will be a good singer.