In Atlanta, there is immediate opportunity because of injuries at running back. Backup Travis Jervey was placed on injured reserve this week with a torn ACL in his left knee, starter T.J. Duckett's status is uncertain because of a foot injury and fullback Bob Christian is recovering from a concussion. IMHO Duckett is out and Christian will suit up (the guy is an animal).
Dunn and recently resigned Smith will see a lot of action today but look further into that. This will be an important week for Warrick Dunn, the one healthy holdover at running back. Dunn has not received as many as 10 carries in any of the past four games. However, Dunn was extremely effective as a receiver out of the backfield in a win at the Giants two weeks ago, but he has lost playing time to Duckett.
Maurice Smith could be the short term answer, but stepping into the middle of an NFL season you have to expect some rust. It will show. Therefore, what you have here is a situation where two divisional rivals are facing off very hungry, with Atlanta essentially a one-dimensional team. I watched the 49ers/Saints game last week and was not impressed with the New Orleans secondary, nor was Garcia as he rang up 275 yards on 23 completions. And they have Hearst and Barlow.
Vick came out in the third quarter of last weeks game with 16 completions. Atlanta ran the ball thirty nine times in that game. Now the books are releasing a line of 16.5 as the over under for Vick completions? We've talked about playing for value and thats exactly whats happening. I grabbed this at -120 and its around -140 now. Dan Reeves and Atlanta are well versed in the cover 2 package N.O runs, so expect quite a bit of short to intermediate passes from Vick to Dunn in the West Coast style. Also, it would not suprise me to see TE Alge Crumpler lineup as a fullback for blocking and pass protection on the blitz. Thats another reciever for the quick pass.
There are a few things that bring concern, but thats expected in this wager. Bob Christian will play and its uncertain how he will be catching out of the backfield. Another is OT Weiner banged up being a game time decision and probably only playing at 70% if he does. OT Thompson is not quick and DE Grant could have himself an afternoon chasing the QB and creating more scramble runs on passing situations. Also with Vick's ability to get out and run, there is an inherent possibility of injury. Much higher than say a Favre or Gannon.
After dusting off the old Commodore LCD and plugging in some numbers, it spewed out a wider variance of results than I anticipated with completions ranging from a low of 15 to a high or 26. That damn thing needs a tuneup. The median number on the readouts for completions was 19, and I'll go with that. This is still a solid play.
I didnt post my plays last week because typically on the "Big Sunday" people like to bet on sides in multiple games across the board, and the Sunday before last this thread had some 60 or so views. Thats discouraging considering the time spent on the writeup.
It was profitable as I did go 2-1 on them and the reason Im mentioning this is my one loss came on a similar over completions prop on a QB that got knocked out of the game. So, be sensible as anything can and will happen on any given Sunday. Play smart.
Dunn and recently resigned Smith will see a lot of action today but look further into that. This will be an important week for Warrick Dunn, the one healthy holdover at running back. Dunn has not received as many as 10 carries in any of the past four games. However, Dunn was extremely effective as a receiver out of the backfield in a win at the Giants two weeks ago, but he has lost playing time to Duckett.
Maurice Smith could be the short term answer, but stepping into the middle of an NFL season you have to expect some rust. It will show. Therefore, what you have here is a situation where two divisional rivals are facing off very hungry, with Atlanta essentially a one-dimensional team. I watched the 49ers/Saints game last week and was not impressed with the New Orleans secondary, nor was Garcia as he rang up 275 yards on 23 completions. And they have Hearst and Barlow.
Vick came out in the third quarter of last weeks game with 16 completions. Atlanta ran the ball thirty nine times in that game. Now the books are releasing a line of 16.5 as the over under for Vick completions? We've talked about playing for value and thats exactly whats happening. I grabbed this at -120 and its around -140 now. Dan Reeves and Atlanta are well versed in the cover 2 package N.O runs, so expect quite a bit of short to intermediate passes from Vick to Dunn in the West Coast style. Also, it would not suprise me to see TE Alge Crumpler lineup as a fullback for blocking and pass protection on the blitz. Thats another reciever for the quick pass.
There are a few things that bring concern, but thats expected in this wager. Bob Christian will play and its uncertain how he will be catching out of the backfield. Another is OT Weiner banged up being a game time decision and probably only playing at 70% if he does. OT Thompson is not quick and DE Grant could have himself an afternoon chasing the QB and creating more scramble runs on passing situations. Also with Vick's ability to get out and run, there is an inherent possibility of injury. Much higher than say a Favre or Gannon.
After dusting off the old Commodore LCD and plugging in some numbers, it spewed out a wider variance of results than I anticipated with completions ranging from a low of 15 to a high or 26. That damn thing needs a tuneup. The median number on the readouts for completions was 19, and I'll go with that. This is still a solid play.
I didnt post my plays last week because typically on the "Big Sunday" people like to bet on sides in multiple games across the board, and the Sunday before last this thread had some 60 or so views. Thats discouraging considering the time spent on the writeup.
It was profitable as I did go 2-1 on them and the reason Im mentioning this is my one loss came on a similar over completions prop on a QB that got knocked out of the game. So, be sensible as anything can and will happen on any given Sunday. Play smart.
