I have read Senior Capper?s excellent input and Dizzaytons? thread along with input from those who contributed, as well as others, so at risk of ?beating a dead horse? here is another way to look at this Charger/Jets matchup.
Using yds./pt. as a guide, on both offense and defense, you can determine the efficiency of the offense and defense. SD has proven to have one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL, scoring a point for every 15.1 yds. of offense (2nd only to Indy at 14.3). The Jets on the other hand sport a pedestrian 23.9 yds./pt. rating, with the NFL avg. being around 21. This means that for every 15 yds of offense the Chargers can muster, they can be expected to score a point??same for the Jets, but at the rate of 23 yds/pt.
Now the trick to using this information is to determine how many yds of offense can each team get against the other. Using the same formula for defense and comparing the two, I can estimate the Chargers will run up around 296 yds total. I estimate the Jets to slightly exceed that and end up with approx. 306 yds.
Rounding up and adding for home field advantage, the Chargers should score 25 points and the Jets should score 13. Turnover ratio?s are similar for both teams at +15 and +17 and although they may prove to be pivotal in the game, cannot show an advantage from a handicapping standpoint. These figures are for weeks 1-15 and don?t include fumbles recovery?s, kickoff returns, or defensive scoring.
An interesting look at the home/away scoring for these teams shows a similar pattern, with SD averaging 32 pts at home and the Jets avg. 16 away. In fact, aside from the Jets scoring 29 last week in a losing effort against the horrid St. Louis defense, they have not scored more that 17 points on the road since Sept. 19th.
Without going into the individual rankings of each Off. and Def. the balance and efficiency of the Chargers offense will prevail Saturday. With all due respect to Pennington, the Jets running game, the Jets haven?t shown that they can score enough points on a good defense, on the road, to stay with the Chargers. With the Jets only scoring 16 points (and expected little help from turnovers), the Chargers will wear down the Jets in the second half and put up the requisite 25 and cover the 7.
It?s raining steady in So. Cal. With rain expected all day (temp 60?s) tomorrow and Sunday. Who knows what will happen on a muddy field, but with these teams expect to see a lot of Martin and Tomlinson between the tackles. One slip by a DB could change the complexion the whole game?.
I bought this game Sunday at 5?, bought some more later at 6? I don?t like laying a TD, but the numbers say to take S.D and lay the 7?
Good Luck
Using yds./pt. as a guide, on both offense and defense, you can determine the efficiency of the offense and defense. SD has proven to have one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL, scoring a point for every 15.1 yds. of offense (2nd only to Indy at 14.3). The Jets on the other hand sport a pedestrian 23.9 yds./pt. rating, with the NFL avg. being around 21. This means that for every 15 yds of offense the Chargers can muster, they can be expected to score a point??same for the Jets, but at the rate of 23 yds/pt.
Now the trick to using this information is to determine how many yds of offense can each team get against the other. Using the same formula for defense and comparing the two, I can estimate the Chargers will run up around 296 yds total. I estimate the Jets to slightly exceed that and end up with approx. 306 yds.
Rounding up and adding for home field advantage, the Chargers should score 25 points and the Jets should score 13. Turnover ratio?s are similar for both teams at +15 and +17 and although they may prove to be pivotal in the game, cannot show an advantage from a handicapping standpoint. These figures are for weeks 1-15 and don?t include fumbles recovery?s, kickoff returns, or defensive scoring.
An interesting look at the home/away scoring for these teams shows a similar pattern, with SD averaging 32 pts at home and the Jets avg. 16 away. In fact, aside from the Jets scoring 29 last week in a losing effort against the horrid St. Louis defense, they have not scored more that 17 points on the road since Sept. 19th.
Without going into the individual rankings of each Off. and Def. the balance and efficiency of the Chargers offense will prevail Saturday. With all due respect to Pennington, the Jets running game, the Jets haven?t shown that they can score enough points on a good defense, on the road, to stay with the Chargers. With the Jets only scoring 16 points (and expected little help from turnovers), the Chargers will wear down the Jets in the second half and put up the requisite 25 and cover the 7.
It?s raining steady in So. Cal. With rain expected all day (temp 60?s) tomorrow and Sunday. Who knows what will happen on a muddy field, but with these teams expect to see a lot of Martin and Tomlinson between the tackles. One slip by a DB could change the complexion the whole game?.
I bought this game Sunday at 5?, bought some more later at 6? I don?t like laying a TD, but the numbers say to take S.D and lay the 7?
Good Luck
