AntiConsensus 2010

[BobbyBlueChip]

This is the time of the year that I do well by going straight anti-consensus. Taken from another site, here is the consensus as of 12:00 CDT

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds
2:45 PM Sam Houston St. +10.5 344 20.95% Baylor -10.5 1298 79.05% View View
7:15 PM East Tennessee St. +19.5 395 26.32% Kentucky -19.5 1106 73.68% View View
12:25 PM Old Dominion +2.5 510 27.13% Notre Dame -2.5 1370 72.87% View View
7:25 PM Ohio +13 438 30.12% Georgetown -13 1016 69.88% View View
9:30 PM Lehigh +25 447 30.39% Kansas -25 1024 69.61% View View
9:40 PM Montana +9 510 33.18% New Mexico -9 1027 66.82% View View
2:40 PM North Texas +16 562 35.96% Kansas St. -16 1001 64.04% View View
12:30 PM Robert Morris +18 559 35.97% Villanova -18 995 64.03% View View
7:20 PM Washington +1.5 628 36.15% Marquette -1.5 1109 63.85% View View
9:45 PM San Diego St. +3.5 666 38.74% Tennessee -3.5 1053 61.26% View View
2:30 PM Murray St. +2.5 694 39.21% Vanderbilt -2.5 1076 60.79% View View
8:00 PM Southern Mississippi +2.5 202 42.00% Louisiana Tech -2.5 279 58.00% View View
12:15 PM Florida +5 765 43.24% Brigham Young -5 1004 56.76% View View
4:45 PM Texas-El Paso +2.5 795 45.27% Butler -2.5 961 54.73% View View
9:35 PM Wake Forest +5 751 45.99% Texas -5 882 54.01% View View
2:50 PM St. Mary's +2 928 52.22% Richmond -2 849 47.78% View View
7:10 PM Northern Iowa +1 922 54.04% UNLV -1 784 45.96% View View

System calls for fading any team backed by 70+%. Since 2002, system has gone 46-38 (5-10 LY) and has made a profit for the two years before that (Didn't keep the records.) Simply, This is a time of the year that you don't want to be on the side of the public. (or at least that used to be the case)

The records not all that impressive anymore after back to back losing seasons, but I still believe in it fundamentally, but I've also believed in unranked favs and 40+ point underdogs and those systems shit the bed as the sample grew larger.

Sam Houston St. +10.5
E. Tennessee St. +19.5
Old Dominion +2.5

 

[IX_Bender]

Last year was like using sandpaper to wipe your own ass.


If you dont think Im putting the time in, working late night and getting cranked up for tomorrow, then youd be sadly mistaken.

Oh, I'll be taking some dogs this year and tradin the points in for kickback. Several dogs win outright tomorrow, but Vegas has shortened the strings on the purses with these bullshit tiny spreads.

 

[michaeljbird]

Find anything you like Bender ?

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System record 2-1


Consensus as of 9:00 CDT
2:45 PM Oakland +9.5 549 30.25% Pittsburgh -9.5 1266 69.75% View View
4:45 PM Utah St. +3 667 34.79% Texas A&M -3 1250 65.21% View View
9:30 PM Vermont +16 616 35.83% Syracuse -16 1103 64.17% View View
7:10 PM Florida St. -1.5 695 36.24% Gonzaga +1.5 1223 63.76% View View
7:25 PM Arkansas-Pine Bluff +23 69 36.51% Duke -23 120 63.49% View View
12:25 PM Minnesota -1 737 36.65% Xavier +1 1274 63.35% View View
12:15 PM Morgan St. +17.5 636 37.37% West Virginia -17.5 1066 62.63% View View
9:35 PM UC Santa Barbara +17 637 37.76% Ohio St. -17 1050 62.24% View View
2:50 PM Wofford +10 691 38.82% Wisconsin -10 1089 61.18% View View
12:30 PM Cornell +3.5 832 42.21% Temple -3.5 1139 57.79% View View
7:15 PM Georgia Tech +1.5 882 46.74% Oklahoma St. -1.5 1005 53.26% View View
9:40 PM Houston +9.5 893 50.20% Maryland -9.5 886 49.80% View View
2:35 PM Missouri +1.5 995 53.32% Clemson -1.5 871 46.68% View View
2:30 PM Siena +4.5 1131 57.29% Purdue -4.5 843 42.71% View View
7:20 PM New Mexico St. +13.5 1053 58.37% Michigan St -13.5 751 41.63% View View
9:45 PM Louisville +1 1295 64.40% California -1 716 35.60% View View

No picks today. Hopefully, you made some coin today IX

 

[wareagle]

hey Bobby, the site i use is very accurate and reputable when it comes to #'s

the format is kind of fouled up when i copied pasted it over here so i will bold the <70%. you dont have to put these in your record but just in case others wanted to see where the public $ was today thought i would share.

03/19/10 823 Vermont 142 +15.5-110 +2500 o143-110 9029 50% 63% 55% 21%
9:40PM 824 Syracuse -18 -15.5-110 -5000 u143-110 50% 37% 45% 79%

03/19/10 825 Florida St. 132 -1-110 -125 o132-110 15214 28% 19% 50% 24%
7:10PM 826 Gonzaga - +1-110 105 u132-110 72% 81% 50% 76%

03/19/10 827 Morgan St. 138? +17.5-110 +2250 o137.5-110 10694 59% 30% 59% 33%
12:15PM 828 West Virginia -16? -17.5-110 -4500 u137.5-110 41% 70% 41% 67%

03/19/10 829 Missouri 138 +1.5-110 +105 o140.5-110 13068 62% 59% 60% 54%
2:45PM 830 Clemson - -1.5-110 -125 u140.5-110 38% 41% 40% 46%

03/19/10 831 Cornell 118? +3.5-110 +155 o118.5-110 25171 48% 66% 63% 45%
12:30PM 832 Temple -4? -3.5-110 -175 u118.5-110 52% 34% 37% 55%

03/19/10 833 Wofford 116 +10-110 +465 o114.5-110 18782 51% 50% 67% 41%
3:00PM 834 Wisconsin -10 -10-110 -630 u114.5-110 49% 50% 33% 59%


03/19/10 835 Ark.-Pine Bluff 125 +23-110 o126-110 6128 49% 50% 99% 34%
7:25PM 836 Duke -21 -23-110 u126-110 51% 50% 1% 66%

03/19/10 837 Louisville 146? 0-110 o149-110 16201 72% 78% 65% 73%
9:55PM 838 California -1? 0-110 u149-110 28% 22% 35% 27%

03/19/10 839 UC Santa Barbara 132 +17-110 +2000 o131.5-110 7912 55% 13% 70% 55%
9:45PM 840 Ohio St. -17? -17-110 -4000 u131.5-110 45% 87% 30% 45%

03/19/10 841 Georgia Tech 138 +1.5-110 +105 o137-110 12106 49% 92% 85% 49%
7:15PM 842 Oklahoma St. - -1.5-110 -125 u137-110 51% 8% 15% 51%

03/19/10 843 Oakland, Mich. 133? +9.5-110 +475 o134.5-110 18284 54% 48% 50% 32%
2:55PM 844 Pittsburgh -11 -9.5-110 -650 u134.5-110 46% 52% 50% 68%

03/19/10 845 Minnesota -1 0-110 o142-110 18470 27% 13% 48% 44%
12:25PM 846 Xavier 142 0-110 u142-110 73% 87% 52% 56%

03/19/10 847 New Mexico St. 146 +13.5-110 +925 o148-110 14150 81% 88% 80% 64%
7:20PM 848 Michigan St. -13? -13.5-110 -1400 u148-110 19% 12% 20% 36%

03/19/10 849 Houston 155 +9.5-110 +415 o157.5-110 15555 62% 58% 53% 48%
9:50PM 850 Maryland -8 -9.5-110 -525 u157.5-110 38% 42% 47% 52%

03/19/10 851 Utah St. 129? +3-110 +145 o125-110 20711 38% 42% 82% 40%
4:55PM 852 Texas A&M -3 -3-110 -165 u125-110 62% 58% 18% 60%

03/19/10 853 Siena 131? +4.5-110 +160 o129-110 25663 67% 70% 43% 63%
2:30PM 854 Purdue -5 -4.5-110 -190 u129-110 33% 30% 57% 37%

03/19/10 855 Memphis +4.5-110 o149-110 50% 25% 33%
6:30PM 856 Mississippi -4.5-110 u149-110 50% 75% 67%


so plays would be on cal, mich st, fsu and minny

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I would assume any site's anticonsensus would work long-term, but this is the site I've used for about 10 years. Good Luck!


Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds
5:45 PM Old Dominion +4 291 26.10% Baylor -4 824 73.90% View View
8:00 PM Brigham Young +4.5 344 31.65% Kansas St. -4.5 743 68.35% View View
8:05 PM Wake Forest +9 228 34.76% Kentucky -9 428 65.24% View View
3:00 PM Jacksonville +8.5 319 35.41% Texas Tech -8.5 582 64.59% View View
5:40 PM Northern Iowa +11.5 250 38.94% Kansas -11.5 392 61.06% View View
3:20 PM Murray St. +4.5 441 41.37% Butler -4.5 625 58.63% View View
1:05 PM St. Mary's +4.5 504 45.86% Villanova -4.5 595 54.14% View View
5:50 PM Washington -1.5 317 47.89% New Mexico +1.5 345 52.11% View View
12:00 PM North Carolina +7.5 524 54.75% Mississippi St. -7.5 433 45.25% View View
5:00 PM N.C. State +5.5 522 57.43% UAB -5.5 387 42.57% View View
3:25 PM Ohio +8.5 396 60.18% Tennessee -8.5 262 39.82% View View

Old Dominion +4

 

[Cie]

Old Dom has solid length, and they controlled the interior vs. ND, but the numerous Baylor bigs are longer far more athletic than Harangody. Carter was not killing it the other day, so would expect a bit more from him today considering he is from the New Orleans area

From what I watched live Thursday, I would lean away from Old Dom, which tells me you should easily cover the +4:SIB

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System record 2-2

2:40 PM Missouri +6 375 31.57% West Virginia -6 813 68.43% View View
5:15 PM California +6 479 40.87% Duke -6 693 59.13% View View
2:30 PM Michigan St -1 527 43.95% Maryland +1 672 56.05% View View
4:50 PM Xavier -1 541 45.12% Pittsburgh +1 658 54.88% View View
2:20 PM Georgia Tech +6 561 46.91% Ohio St. -6 635 53.09% View View
12:10 PM Gonzaga +6.5 691 57.25% Syracuse -6.5 516 42.75% View View
2:50 PM Cornell +4.5 800 66.33% Wisconsin -4.5 406 33.67% View View
5:00 PM Texas A&M -2 830 68.99% Purdue +2 373 31.01% View View

No plays today. For information only

 

[IX_Bender]

4 plays in the first four days combined?


Really.


Parity? Sign of the times? Anti-public sentiment?

Might be time to reconsider the system/consensus.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

There's years that it ends with 4 plays. Last year it had 15 but that's because the favs got on a roll and they had heavy backing throughout the tourney. . . .really odd thing today is the significant backing for Cornell.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

7:05 PM Butler +6 599 30.62% Syracuse -6 1357 69.38% View View
9:35 PM Xavier +5 696 36.59% Kansas St. -5 1206 63.41% View View
7:25 PM Washington +4.5 867 45.06% West Virginia -4.5 1057 54.94% View View
9:55 PM Cornell +8 928 49.07% Kentucky -8 963 50.93% View View

Forgot to do this last night, no plays for the system, but Butler's close enough for me

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

9:55 PM Purdue +8.5 650 39.68% Duke -8.5 988 60.32% View View
7:05 PM Tennessee +4.5 739 44.95% Ohio St. -4.5 905 55.05% View View
7:25 PM St. Mary's +4.5 800 47.88% Baylor -4.5 871 52.12% View View
9:35 PM Northern Iowa +1 852 53.55% Michigan St -1 739 46.45% View View

Nothing.Zip.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

7:00 PM West Virginia +4 338 35.25% Kentucky -4 621 64.75% View View
4:30 PM Butler +4 382 41.08% Kansas St. -4 548 58.92% View View