Anticonsensus 2011

[BobbyBlueChip]

This is the time of the year that I do well by going straight anti-consensus. Taken from another site, here is the consensus as of 12:00 CDT

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

1:40 PM Morehead St. +9.5 416 24.87% Louisville -9.5 1257 75.13%
3:10 PM N.C. Asheville +18 220 30.39% Pittsburgh -18 504 69.61%
6:50 PM UC Santa Barbara +13 470 31.63% Florida -13 1016 68.37%
7:20 PM Bucknell +10 518 33.04% Connecticut -10 1050 66.96%
4:40 PM Northern Colorado +15 508 33.66% San Diego St. -15 1001 66.34%
12:15 PM Clemson +2 318 34.91% West Virginia -2 593 65.09%
2:45 PM Princeton +13 563 35.48% Kentucky -13 1024 64.52%
9:55 PM Utah St. +2.5 650 39.06% Kansas St. -2.5 1014 60.94%
7:15 PM Wofford +8.5 646 40.60% Brigham Young -8.5 945 59.40%
9:45 PM Gonzaga +1.5 690 40.83% St. John's -1.5 1000 59.17%
4:10 PM Richmond +2.5 778 45.44% Vanderbilt -2.5 934 54.56%
2:10 PM Penn St. +2.5 782 45.70% Temple -2.5 929 54.30%
7:25 PM Belmont +5 769 46.35% Wisconsin -5 890 53.65%
9:50 PM Missouri +1 861 52.69% Cincinnati -1 773 47.31%
9:20 PM Michigan St -1 903 55.30% UCLA +1 730 44.70%
12:40 PM Old Dominion -2 1035 58.05% Butler +2 748 41.95%


System calls for fading any team backed by 70+%. Since 2002, system has gone 48-40 (2-2 LY) and had made a profit for the two years before that (Didn't keep the records.) Simply, This is a time of the year that you don't want to be on the side of the public. (or at least that used to be the case)

The records not all that impressive anymore after back to back losing seasons in 2008 and 2009, but I still believe in it fundamentally, but I've also believed in unranked favs and 40+ point underdogs and those systems shit the bed as the sample grew larger.

Play on:
Morehead State +9.5

 

[Clem D]

Morehead is always a good thing.

Serious though. I think they give louisville fits

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I have no idea. . . which is why even if this system hit 45%, it would save me money

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I still believe in it fundamentally, but I've also believed in unranked favs and 40+ point underdogs and those systems shit the bed as the sample grew larger.

I was just thinking about how profitable this system used to be and how it regressed to the mean and was also thinking about how I felt 10 years ago when I first came to Madjacks and started gambling on the internet. . . about how cool this was that we finally had the books by the balls with all the local information we had access to and all these systems I was learning about. . . .and then realized that sometimes the ball bounces the wrong way and it doesn't matter how good your info is or that the person that you got the info from is a homer and you also realize that sometimes a good system is just a statistical blip.

But one thing I do know that helps us now more than the mid 90's is the multitude of available books. The lines for tomorrow's games as of now from Bookmaker, 5 Dimes, JustBet, BetEd and Intertops

West Virginia -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5
Kentucky -13 -13 -13 -13 -13
Florida -13.5 -13 -13.5 -13 -13
Michigan State -1 -1 -1.5 -1 -1.5
UCONN -10 -10 -10 -10 -10
Cincy -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Pitt -18 -18 -18.5 -18 -18
Old Dominion -2 -2 -2.5 -2 -2
Vanderbilt -2.5 -3 -3 -3 -3
Louisville -9.5 -9.5 -9.5 -9.5 -9.5
BYU -8 -8.5 -8.5 -8 -8.5
St. John's -1 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5
San Diego State -15 -15.5 -15.5 -15.5 -15.5
Temple -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5
Kansas State -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5
Wisconsin -4.5 -4.5 -5 -4.5 -5

9 games have different lines depending what books you use. Moving just 4% of your games from a push to a win and a loss to a push will have a significant impact on your winnings no matter what percentage you hit.

 

[IE]

good post BBC, also have a look at SportsInteraction lines.


also, Intertops has betting trends in their left hand margin of their site.


http://www.intertops.com/sportsbetting/barometer.htm?lan=en&hide=false&slip=true

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

good post BBC, also have a look at SportsInteraction lines.


also, Intertops has betting trends in their left hand margin of their site.


http://www.intertops.com/sportsbetting/barometer.htm?lan=en&hide=false&slip=true

It was just a Guinness endorsed 10-year lookback of my gambling life

And not to make it seem like we're a team, but if a madjacker was looking for a nice incentive for adding another book, there's two contests going on that require a $100 deposit into a new gambling account to wager at JustBet, BetEd, SIA and Intertops.

http://madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=439415

and Jack said please

and JustBet has a 100% free play bonus

and BetEd has a 20% cash bonus

and Jack said please. . . . .

 

[Lumi]

BBC,

great info !

Thanks for fucking up my already messed up eyesight with the blurred together numbers ! :facepalm: :mj07:

:toast:

Peas and Good luck with mas cabeza

 

[IX_Bender]

I remember when this was followed blindly as was almost like printing money.


This year we'd probably be thrilled to go 3-2.

Thanks for keeping up the tradition.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

BBC,

great info !

Thanks for fucking up my already messed up eyesight with the blurred together numbers ! :facepalm: :mj07:

:toast:

Peas and Good luck with mas cabeza

That happened to me, too. I've got a headache.

Sorry

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

This year we'd probably be thrilled to go 3-2.

Was pretty happy with 2-2 last year. . . keep your expectations low and life is nothing but a bowl of cherries

 

[Lumi]

That happened to me, too. I've got a headache.

Sorry

drive on.....:0008

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System Record 1-0


3:10 PM Hampton +23 441 25.09% Duke -23 1317 74.91%
1:40 PM Akron +14 458 25.29% Notre Dame -14 1353 74.71%
9:55 PM Indiana St. +12.5 493 26.97% Syracuse -12.5 1335 73.03%
7:15 PM LIU Brooklyn +17.5 484 27.96% North Carolina -17.5 1247 72.04%
6:50 PM Boston U +22.5 510 29.81% Kansas -22.5 1201 70.19%
9:45 PM Georgia +5 599 32.17% Washington -5 1263 67.83%
2:45 PM Memphis +5.5 635 34.01% Arizona -5.5 1232 65.99%
7:20 PM St. Peter's +15 711 40.96% Purdue -15 1025 59.04%
9:20 PM Illinois +2 786 40.96% UNLV -2 1133 59.04%
4:40 PM Texas-San Antonio +24 272 41.40% Ohio St. -24 385 58.60%
9:50 PM VCU +5.5 308 42.90% Georgetown -5.5 410 57.10%
4:10 PM Florida St. +1 918 48.55% Texas A&M -1 973 51.45%
7:25 PM Marquette +2.5 944 49.19% Xavier -2.5 975 50.81%
2:10 PM Villanova -1.5 1042 52.26% George Mason +1.5 952 47.74%
12:15 PM Oakland +10.5 1035 52.97% Texas -10.5 919 47.03%
12:40 PM Tennessee -2 1100 55.06% Michigan +2 898 44.94%

Play on:
Hampton +23
Akron +14
Indiana St. +12.5
LIU Brooklyn +17.5
Boston U +22.5

 

[Handi Capper]

i do a pool that had 801 entries, of all the games is 1st round that was close to a pick 75% was on flor st,the next was missouri with 66%

 

[DWSmith17]

System
Record 1-0
Play on:
Indiana St. +12.5
LIU Brooklyn +17.5
[/b]

I love these two so they're probably the ones that won't hit...

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System Record 4-2

9:40 PM Cincinnati +3.5 174 21.64% Connecticut -3.5 630 78.36%
6:10 PM Temple +6 323 29.07% San Diego St. -6 788 70.93%
2:45 PM UCLA +5 271 33.75% Florida -5 532 66.25%
5:15 PM Morehead St. +4 397 35.38% Richmond -4 725 64.62%
12:15 PM West Virginia +4 437 39.12% Kentucky -4 680 60.88%
7:10 PM Butler +7.5 490 45.20% Pittsburgh -7.5 594 54.80%
8:40 PM Kansas St. +3 416 53.06% Wisconsin -3 368 46.94%
7:45 PM Gonzaga -1.5 463 57.09% Brigham Young +1.5 348 42.91%

Play on:
Cincinnati +3.5
Temple +6

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Was pretty happy with 2-2 last year. . . keep your expectations low and life is nothing but a bowl of cherries

:toast:

 

[el JB]

System Record 4-2

9:40 PM Cincinnati +3.5 174 21.64% Connecticut -3.5 630 78.36%
6:10 PM Temple +6 323 29.07% San Diego St. -6 788 70.93%
2:45 PM UCLA +5 271 33.75% Florida -5 532 66.25%
5:15 PM Morehead St. +4 397 35.38% Richmond -4 725 64.62%
12:15 PM West Virginia +4 437 39.12% Kentucky -4 680 60.88%
7:10 PM Butler +7.5 490 45.20% Pittsburgh -7.5 594 54.80%
8:40 PM Kansas St. +3 416 53.06% Wisconsin -3 368 46.94%
7:45 PM Gonzaga -1.5 463 57.09% Brigham Young +1.5 348 42.91%

Play on:
Cincinnati +3.5
Temple +6

love Cincy +3.5 ....Temple +6 gives me fits but your logic may be right as smax said this are games with less than 40 hour rest between plays and teams have to adjust to that intensity so they even out with their competition...thanks for posting these:toast: BOL

 

[Cie]

You are SOL, blue balls. I like both and pounded cincy. Good luck.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

You are SOL, blue balls. I like both and pounded cincy. Good luck.

You realize what our record is when you do this, right? Carry on :0008

System Record 4-3 (Cincy pending and sinking)

12:15 PM Washington +3.5 204 31.53% North Carolina -3.5 443 68.47%
9:40 PM Florida St. +5.5 355 32.69% Notre Dame -5.5 731 67.31%
8:40 PM Illinois +8.5 209 34.72% Kansas -8.5 393 65.28%
7:45 PM Marquette +4.5 222 36.57% Syracuse -4.5 385 63.43%
5:15 PM George Mason +11 485 45.03% Ohio St. -11 592 54.97%
2:45 PM Michigan +11.5 483 46.94% Duke -11.5 546 53.06%
6:10 PM Arizona +5.5 508 47.48% Texas -5.5 562 52.52%
12:30 PM Kent St. +4.5 429 49.88% Fairfield -4.5 431 50.12%
7:10 PM VCU +9 377 60.61% Purdue -9 245 39.39%

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

No picks. . . .just for your viewing pleasure



7:27 PM Brigham Young +3 705 43.15% Florida -3 929 56.85%
7:15 PM Connecticut -1 949 56.66% San Diego St. +1 726 43.34%
9:57 PM Butler +4.5 1005 61.66% Wisconsin -4.5 625 38.34%
9:45 PM Arizona +8.5 918 63.18% Duke -8.5 535 36.82%