this article makes some good points for both sides...
Thunder, Lightning, and Questions Aplenty
The Neutral Corner by Jason Probst --------------------------------------------------------
Can?t seem to get my hands around this weekend?s Arturo Gatti-Floyd Mayweather showdown, but it?s so enveloping that I hardly thought about last Saturday?s Glen Johnson-Antonio Tarver bout, despite its merits. The latter you knew was going to a hard-fought decision, but Gatti-Mayweather seems a far more important essay for both guys? careers and for the sport. Perhaps because the 140-lb. division is so much deeper and more compelling than the light heavyweights, who really haven?t thrived since Michael Spinks lived there more than 20 years ago.
It?s fittingly billed as ?Thunder and Lightning,? which was the same billing given Julio Cesar Chavez? epic encounter with Meldrick Taylor fifteen years ago.
The funny thing about this fight is that each time I watch tape of one guy, I lean toward the other one to give them hell. Seeing Gatti get hit with everything including the kitchen sink against Ward, you wonder how Mayweather will miss him. And seeing him have periodic troubles with Gianluca Branco doesn?t bode well for dealing with Floyd?s speed.
But watching Mayweather?s significant problems with Jose Luis Castillo ? a guy who knew how to apply intelligent pressure and was significantly bigger than him at fight time ? you wonder how he will hold up when Gatti keeps coming forward where others usually draw a line in the sand and agree to stop trying.
Like many great boxers, Mayweather wins a fight in the first few rounds by establishing that he?s going to punish you should you break the silent contract and push the issue. Those who didn?t stop trying ? Jesus Chavez, Phillip Ndou, Diego Corrales ? were punished and beaten down. Gatti has never given up on anything remotely that simple, and certainly won?t Saturday night. Go ahead and drill him nine times in a row, flush on the puss and with extreme prejudice. He?ll still be around to ask if you?re man enough to risk delivery on the tenth.
There?s also a huge number of fight-time factors that could become critical, more so than in most bouts. Both guys have recurring hand problems. Gatti?s long career of brawls and taxing wars seemed to have nearly caught up with him against Ward, but he of the nine lives has seemed reasonably reborn in recent bouts, where he has eschewed brawling for boxing. Against Mayweather, though, hidden cracks in the armor could be exploited.
Gatti cuts, bleeds and swells with such regularity that the magnificently apt Joe Souza should be enshrined in the Hall of Fame as soon as he?s eligible. Gatti will also be a dozen or more pounds heavier than Mayweather at fight time, and if you don?t think that?s a factor, look at how much stronger Castillo was on the inside against Floyd. He was able to bully him at times and simply didn?t budge when hit.
With Floyd?s fragile hands, and Gatti?s penchant for getting hit on top of the head when he swivels low on defense, Mayweather could fight perfectly for a few rounds before shattering his brittle mitt and finding himself in a very unenviable position ? having to keep Gatti off without full juice on his shots.
In this situation, ?Pretty Boy? has been able to adapt. He uses his legs to buy him time and limit exchanges. But Gatti is no game animal to be taken down with a lower-caliber weapon. Hitting him only complicates matters unless you have a Severe Equalizer, which for Mayweather has always been realized over time and with attrition setting his man up for the kill.
Several different subplots will play out in this bout, and most of them have to do with how much of Gatti will be able to bring his overlooked tools to bear. He has a very good jab when he remembers to use it, and some boxing ability that has neatly set up his knockout wins over Leo Dorin and James Leija. In fact, I think that jab is Gatti?s key punch in the fight. He could use it the same way Ken Norton did against Muhammad Ali, throwing it simultaneously to disrupt the quicker man?s rhythm. Nobody ever tries to jab against Mayweather. People concede the jab to him because it means you get countered silly over it with blinding right hands and hooks you never see. Luckily, for Gatti?s sake, this is usually just another day at the office. The jab could be a great way to throw Mayweather off-kilter and let him know that he?s in a dogfight.
Subplots aside, this should be a fantastic fight. It?s going to surely be the best of Floyd and Arturo in there Saturday night, and given Floyd?s remarkable track record in showdown fights I think he?ll take a hard-fought decision win, holding Gatti off over the stretch run. After going back and forth on it, youth and speed should prevail, but don?t be surprised if Gatti gives him some tough moments over the duke. Like a handicap match in horse racing, weight makes a big difference and because of that I think it?s going to be closer than the conventional wisdom suggests. Let?s just hope for a conventional, satisfying ending. Given the random factors that could inject themselves into the equation ? busted hands, Gatti?s tender tissues, etc. ? an acceptable result would be a boon for the winner.
