Any NBA experts? What effect does this have?

[Don Dollars]

I was wondering if anyone has any information on the impact that OVERTIMES has in NBA Over/Under wagering.

How much is this factored into a line? How much of a compensation needs to be used to adjust appropriately?

Almost all UNDERS that are played are going to lose if their is an overtime. How big of an impact will this have? How much does it strengthen OVER plays? Any insight would be GREATLY APPRECIATED!

 

[SpursDynasty]

I thought about this vigorously.

I even mentioned it the first time I got to this forum almost in the same wording as you did 1.5 years ago.

But basically not just the "overtime", but also the late game fouling that constitutes with games that are close in the waning last minute of the game. You can suddenly grab an extra 5 to 12 pts with fouling alone.

overtimes are rare, not even significant enough to even factor in a line. It is almost like asking if safties are factred into football totals... that is to say I think there is no intention of any total differences (by oddsmakers) in a bball game b/c of the possibility of overtime.

I have also come to the conclusion that overall, betting overs in the long run probably is a lot better to bet than unders in the long run just because late game fouling and overtime would kick in after a lot of games have been calculated.

 

[Don Dollars]

I do not believe that overtimes are insignificant. If I am seeing this correctly, approximately 6% of games go into overtime. This is quite a high % of games that need to be accounted for.

The only bad thing about playing more overs, is that the public likes overs. I do not like betting what the public likes to bet because of skewed #'s given by books to compensate for the public's love of overs.

Thank you for the reply!
Anymore insight?

 

[MasterTX]

Over/Unders always avg out about 50-50 in the long run...it's all about picking your spots correctly. I think UNDERS have much more value in the NBA, b/c the game is so offensive minded and the public loves points.

 

[countinguy]

Don,

Don't worry about factoring in ots in nba capping. Been capping this league for years, and u will drive urself nuts if u factor in this.

Just look at the teams ur a dealing with, are they defensive teams like detroit, pacers or are they the running offensive teams like phoenix, dallas. NBA is one of the harder sports to cap, ask any veteran capper, but I never, never factor in ots. And also I would never just consider betting overs or just unders. Just cap out the games and see where the numbers fall, if I cap something way over, I then look for updated injury list, or who is questionable for that nites game. Madjack has a great database link right on this site u should be using everyday for capping.

GL BUDDY!

 

[Happy Hippo]

I am not necessarily an expert... But I do agree with countinguy - you really can't factor OT into games when capping them. This is the where the luck factor comes into play, and you may win some games in OT and lose some games in OT. However, in case you are interested, here are the stats from the 05-06 regular season:

FOR ALL GAMES:

49.4% of totals went OVER
49.4% of totals went UNDER
1.2% of totals PUSHED

7.1% of games went into OT
3.7% of games went OVER that were UNDER or a PUSH before OT

FOR OVERTIME GAMES:

88.5% of games went OVER
10.3% of games stayed UNDER
1.2% of games PUSHED

35.6% of games were already OVER before OT

16.1% of games went into double or triple OT
4.6% of games needed double OT for the total to go OVER


And if you would take out all the UNDERS that got blown in OT, then UNDERS would have hit 53.2% for the season...

 

[Don Dollars]

I am not necessarily an expert... But I do agree with countinguy - you really can't factor OT into games when capping them. This is the where the luck factor comes into play, and you may win some games in OT and lose some games in OT. However, in case you are interested, here are the stats from the 05-06 regular season:

FOR ALL GAMES:

49.4% of totals went OVER
49.4% of totals went UNDER
1.2% of totals PUSHED

7.1% of games went into OT
3.7% of games went OVER that were UNDER or a PUSH before OT

FOR OVERTIME GAMES:

88.5% of games went OVER
10.3% of games stayed UNDER
1.2% of games PUSHED

35.6% of games were already OVER before OT

16.1% of games went into double or triple OT
4.6% of games needed double OT for the total to go OVER


And if you would take out all the UNDERS that got blown in OT, then UNDERS would have hit 53.2% for the season...

Great information. That information is very helpful. Thank you!

 

[Agent 0659]

I am not necessarily an expert... But I do agree with countinguy - you really can't factor OT into games when capping them. This is the where the luck factor comes into play, and you may win some games in OT and lose some games in OT. However, in case you are interested, here are the stats from the 05-06 regular season:

FOR ALL GAMES:

49.4% of totals went OVER
49.4% of totals went UNDER
1.2% of totals PUSHED

7.1% of games went into OT
3.7% of games went OVER that were UNDER or a PUSH before OT

FOR OVERTIME GAMES:

88.5% of games went OVER
10.3% of games stayed UNDER
1.2% of games PUSHED

35.6% of games were already OVER before OT

16.1% of games went into double or triple OT
4.6% of games needed double OT for the total to go OVER


And if you would take out all the UNDERS that got blown in OT, then UNDERS would have hit 53.2% for the season...

How can you read awesome info like this, and NOT love Madjacks??

Good work!