anybody feeling confident about a castillo/montiel wager?

[gardenweasel]

i think there are 2 main events saturday night...pavlik/taylor and this one...


i`m a little more familiar with montiel...i`ve been fairly lucky with himl despite some of his sketchy recent performances...caught a big break being able to unload on him as a dog vs a vastly overrated ivan hernandez...

used to think he had pfp potential,but,it hasn`t quite panned out...

castillo`s very tough...very resilient...a top notch fighter..good technically....both are, actually...

i`d pay to see this fight whether or not pavlik/taylor were on the card...should be an action,give and take fight....

i would look at the over,if it weren`t for the recent cut issues with both men....

this is being fought at both men`s prime fighting weight,imo.....castillo is naturally a little bigger,but not a big puncher....

when he`s on,montiel can be a brutal body puncher.....i`ll never be able to explain his lousy performance vs mark johnson,who,at that point in their respective careers,montial should have beaten...and his life and death performance vs evert briceno(despite the cards,montiel faded in that fight...and briceno`s a plodder)...

he doesn`t always bring his "A" game.....

he`ll have to here..


opinions?...fightwriter`s right...this one`s very tough to wager on..

 

[frank s.]

I'm glad you narrowed that one down. Now I know even less than I did before. I was wondering who might be the right side here. I can bet confidently now. Thank You!

 

[gardenweasel]

dewd.....:shrug: ...whats the problem?...the pillows weren`t fluffed and minted to your specifications?....go back to sleep....

sheesh...

sometimes its a crap shoot....

i think the odds favor montiel only because he`s fought the more high profile competition and has fought on t.v. more than castillo.....

it is legitimately a toss-up...it is what it is...

only a mo-mo throws his money down without weighing both sides of the game...

you can make a pick and have a 50-50 chance of winning this one.....flip a coin.....i`m just trying to provide the little i know about the fighters...

i`m a montiel fan...but,i`m not confident enough to throw money at him yet...

thats why i`m asking for other opinions...we have some guys that know their shit and i`m hoping for some add`l info.......

it just may be that this is one of those "no-plays"....sometimes thats the best option...

 

[frank s.]

Are you getting touchy in your old age? I thought you could stand a little ball bustin. I wish I had a read on this fight is all. I'm not playing it unless someone comes in here and says they have a very strong opinion. Peace out my brother!

 

[gardenweasel]

Are you getting touchy in your old age? !

yeah...i guess so...i`m practically farting dust..... ...

but,honestly,i`d rather chew tinfoil than be a "yoot" in today`s world(another conversation for another day)...

sorry..


i titled the thread in the form of a question and i figured that was a dead giveaway that i was flailing a bit on this fight......on most fights unless i feel i have an edge...

i`m cautious...new guys come on here and bet based on what is provided....and i`d hate to "mislead" anyone(i sound like roger clemens testifying before congress)........

still hoping for some opinions or general info....

hey,mayorga fan......you follow the little guys closely and seem to have a handle on the guys that frequently fight in asia...

how did these guys stack up fighting the asians?....can you make a comparison?.....

thanks...

 

[gardenweasel]

the primo bet is the over in mijares/navarro at -245,imo......it`s a little high straight for me....but,i have it in some pars...

i also like mijares by 12 rd decision at -134...i think it`s a tough fight but i think thats reasonable...you can lay -134 without getting badly hurt...and if you`re squeamish,take navarro at +340 as a hedge........

the draw at +2750 is interesting,also...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

the primo bet is the over in mijares/navarro at -245,imo......it`s a little high straight for me....but,i have it in some pars...

i also like mijares by 12 rd decision at -134...i think it`s a tough fight but i think thats reasonable...you can lay -134 without getting badly hurt...and if you`re squeamish,take navarro at +340 as a hedge........

the draw at +2750 is interesting,also...

Valuev-Lyakhovich Draw has a shot as well at +2250

gl bl

 

[weepaul]

I would stay away from Montiel/Castillo. They are both too good.

If I had to make a pick, it would be Castillo.

 

[gardenweasel]

now thats the montiel that i was a big fan of.....the guy i thought was a pfp guy a few years back.....

a masterful performance....he demolished castillo....

wooo hooo!....way to go,fernando!......:clap:

 

[gardenweasel]

and there was that signature brutal left hook to the body.....

an almost perfect performance vs a world class opponent...