Castillejo had to shed 1 pound
The Vargas of old would beat Castillejo, but Vargas has back problems which caused a long layoff and will bother him the rest of his career. Vargas looked very rusty against Joval having been inactive for 15 months, but he still won in convincing fashion. I expect Vargas to look better tonight, but his opponent is slightly better than the light-punching Joval.
If Vargas' back holds up, and he doesn't get caught with a big shot, he should win. The location and promotion heavily favor Vargas. If it goes to the cards, he has a huge advantage.
I played Castillo small at +350 due to how Vargas looked in his last fight, his questionable chin, and his back issues. Castillejo knows about all these things, and he knows he's up against everything as far as winning a decision. I expect Cast to go for a stoppage here, and it could happen.
Even money, I'd take Vargas
+350 I'll take a small shot on Castillejo
gl bl