ANZ Championship

[Stanley]

Outright play (0.75 units):

Peter Lonard to win 12/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Only one place offerings 12s now, so will jump on it before it goes as it is unlikely to be bettered when more prices arise later today. Had been a little concerned last week that he had competed in the previous two weeks on the PGA Tour, but he still played extremely well and, but for an error of judgement in attacking the flag with his approach shot on the final hole, he would have at least taken Els to a playoff. It meant he had finished 1st, 1st and 2nd in his last three ANZ Tour events and that consistency cannot be ignored. Not a big price, but it is hard to see him not being on leaderboard this week.

 

[milpalm]

Outrights:

Howell 66/1
Parry 16/1

 

[Stanley]

Adding ...

Outright plays (0.75 units):

Stuart Appleby to win 12/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power, Victor Chandler, BlueSq and Five Dimes
Impressive closing 63 to finish 6th in the Sony Open, his only start of the year, and has an excellent record in Australia and on this course in particular. In the 1997 Australian PGA Championship he finished 2nd at New South Wales and finished 12th and 13th in two earlier appearances here. Together with two top-3 finishes in the International on the PGA Tour, there is plenty of reason for Appleby to head the market this week.

Thomas Bjorn to win 20/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Didn't think I would get 20s so, instead of a place-only play on Hansen, will side with another Dane instead. Decent performance to finish in the top-15 in his first start of the year last week and there was enough evidence that he was playing well to side with him this week at this price: he finished in the top-10 in driving distance and greens in regulation. He has a good record in Australia generally and the modified stableford format should suit his attacking game.

 

[tartancords]

Stanley, whats your thoughts on P Fowler. I notice from your database that he shot a 81 in R3 on this course in 1998. i had him down as a possible struggler and that re-inforces my view.

i appreciate he has good current form but he is in the twilight of his career.

 

[hoss]

Tartancords (or ag ) - why don't you start posting some of your fades on here?? Players that aren't going to win are sometimes just as useful as ones that are

all the best

hoss

 

[Ian]

Cannot leave out the 2 guys with winning course form - Howell (66/1) had a promising start to the year and 2x winner Coltart (90/1) - even he doesn't know when he will play well!
1st time I have ever backed Poulter (40/1) - except in Italy - but the format should suit and also jumped on the Gallagher bandwagon at 100/1.
Also like the look of recent winner Foster and will probably play back a few quid of the winnings and Dougherty deserves a mention - a man of many birdies and bogeys who played well last year.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (0.75 units unless stated):

Gary Evans to beat Brian Davis -111 @ Centrebet
Evans looked to be enjoying himself last Sunday and he certainly did play well to finish in 4th place. Last year was a memorable year and with his confidence flying high, 2003 could be just as good. He beat Davis last week and expect the same will occur this week as well.

Niclas Fasth to beat Paul Lawrie -110 @ BetInternet
Successfully opposed Lawrie last week as he had missed three cuts and had a best finish of 58th in four strokeplay events in Australia. One week later, he still has a best finish of 58th so will be opposed again. He is an excellent bad weather player, but the weather conditions this week will be far removed from that in Aberdeen. Slight worry that Fasth complained of a sore back in last Sunday's 81, but he had been 2nd with 18 holes to play. So long as he makes the cut, he should have a very good chance of winning this match.

Nick O'Hern to beat Paul Lawrie -103 @ Five Dimes
Very easy to side with O'Hern who finished in the top-10 in his last two starts of 2002 and in the top-20 in his first two starts of 2003. He also played on this course in 1997 (he finished 30th), so it is rather surprising that Five Dimes makes Lawrie such a strong favourite.

David Lynn to beat Jyoti Randhawa -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Surprising matchup given that Lynn finished 4th last week and seven shots ahead of Randhawa. Lynn has a decent record in Australia making five cuts from six starts, whereas Randhawa has missed one cut and finished 33rd in his other start in this country. On both occasions he finished behind Lynn and can only see a repeat of that result particularly as he recovered his game very well in the face of an Els-Lonard-Faldo onslaught over the weekend.

Jarrod Moseley to beat Charl Schwartzel -118 @ Expekt [1.5 units]
An even more surprising matchup! Will continue to oppose Schwartzel while his odds reflect his one week of glory last month. He has never played in Australia before and so will surely struggle with the conditions that are very different to those in Southern Africa. In start contrast, Moseley won the Australian PGA Championship in December and finished in the top-15 last week. He looks likely to secure another top-15 finish this week, but making the weekend should be enough for this match.

 

[Stanley]

Tartancords, etc ...

I didn't look at Fowler for the outrights as I don't think he has any chance, but I would not be one to oppose him in the spread FPs.

He is very consistent on the ANZ Tour at making cuts and getting the occasional top-10 finish. His average FP in his last 10 ANZ co-sanctioned events (max 50) has been 25.1.

His performance last week would also suggest he should have a solid week this week. He had two eagles - only Jarrod Moseley had more - and finished 11-under-par on the par-5s - only Nick Faldo shot lower on the par-5s :shrug:

Not an obvious candidate to miss the cut IMO

 

[Stanley]

Adding (0.75 units):

Stuart Appleby to beat Paul Casey -150 @ Pinnacle

Casey has certainly played well in his last two events, but this is his first start on this course and in this format and there may be some scars from the way he let a large midway lead slip last week. Els, Faldo and Lonard had been ten, eight and seven shots respectively behind Casey after 36 holes, but only Els was behind (two shots) Casey one round later and they all finished comfortably ahead of him on Sunday. The price is not attractive, but with his course form, his form in Hawaii and his record in this format, there is enough reason to side with the outright selection again.

 

[Stanley]

Adding:

Peter O'Malley to beat Charl Schwartzel -161 @ Boyle [2.25 units]
A welcome chance to oppose Schwartzel again with a home player. O'Malley may have missed the cut last week, but it was his first event of the season and he is far too good a player to make back-to-back cuts in his home country. He finished in the top-10 on his last visit to the New South Wales course (1997 Australian PGA Championship) and secured his first ANZ Tour win (1998 Canon Challenge) in his home state of New South Wales. Lives only 20 minutes from the course, so should have a sizeable local advantage as well.

 

[steved]

gone for
0.5 ew Fasth 40/1 (Eurobet). Skybet had him short then pushed price out, probably after reading about back...all the same going well last week until back struck...will like links type course..
0.5 ew Howell 66/1 (365)..course winner..price reflects mc last week I think, Skybet 33/1..

 

[Anders]

For mine:

Outrights (e/w): Appleby 12-1, Bjorn 20-1, Dougherty 100-1.

Also playing all of Stan's matchups except Evans o Davis.

Adding these:

Appleby o Scott +100
Bjorn o Casey -111
Dougherty o Foster -110
Karlsson o Randhawa -118
Smail o Lawrie +100

all for 1 unit...

GL all

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes:

Stuart Appleby(12/1)
Paul Lawrie(33/1)
Gary Evans(55/1)

GL

 

[tartancords]

well i have decided to go with the Fowler bet, i hope his ANZ tour performance doesnt live up to past records for this week only.

hoss, good idea with the posting of "fades" unfortunately though they arent really recomendations of players to do badly as such, rather players to perform worse than the price offered thus ensuring a long term profit.

ps. is there a way to change your profile name caise i really should standarise over the forums

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Evans/Davis WON by 12
Fasth/Lawrie LOST by 6
O'Hern/Lawrie Leads by 11
Lynn/Randhawa Trails by 2
Moseley/Schwartzel WON by 11
Appleby/Casey All Square
O'Malley/Schwartzel WON by 1

Lonard 33rd
Appleby 17th
Bjorn mc

Won three of the four matchups decided at the cut and both of the larger plays against Schwartzel. Rather lucky to edge a one-point win with O'Malley on the largest play though. Had been a decent position in the outrights with Appleby and Lonard 2nd and 3rd respectively, but against their 33 points scored in Thursday they only managed two on Friday! Appleby had been leader after 34 holes, but dropped a shot on the 17th and then went out-of-bounds on the 18th. But at only four and seven points behind respectively, this could yet be a bumper event.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 4-3-0; +2.37 units

O'Hern/Lawrie WON by 23
Lynn/Randhawa LOST by 2
Appleby/Casey LOST by 4

Outrights: 2-1; +0.75 units

Lonard 4th
Appleby 2nd

Profitable event, but could have been much better and paid the price for underestimating Casey won did wobble on the final day before taking the title. Both Lonard and Appleby had opportunities to overtake him, but not this week.

Australasian Tour ytd
Matchups: 13-7; +7.27 units
Outrights: 3-6; +0.00 units

 

[Snakeoiler]

So if you were 4-3 in this tourney then why do you have 4-0 listed on your site?

 

[Stanley]

I don't.

But I am listed as 4-0 for the New Zealand Open, which I was.