ANZ Tour Championship
- Thread starter Ian
- Start date
Ian, quick question if you don't mind me asking - what % do you put on the early outright bets at long(ish) odds like these compared to later outrights and matchups?
Still learning the wise approach to golf betting; have really enjoyed all the tips from the board this year and made a nice profit to date.
Cheers
PS Checked out the NRL and Super 12 stuff yet?
Still learning the wise approach to golf betting; have really enjoyed all the tips from the board this year and made a nice profit to date.
Cheers
PS Checked out the NRL and Super 12 stuff yet?
Anders
Just gone midnight and I have been sat here the best part of 15 hours (except 2 down the pub) I'll answer you tomorrow as I am now brain dead
Just gone midnight and I have been sat here the best part of 15 hours (except 2 down the pub) I'll answer you tomorrow as I am now brain dead
Anders or AV, do any of you have any information about Concord golf club, ie tight course or not?
All I can find is that it is a par-72, was improved substantially a couple of years back for its centenary and last hosted an ANZ Tour event eight years ago when Mike Harwood shot 61 in the Australian PGA.
I know the players that I like this week, but they're tight/tough course players and if this is to be a birdie-fest or a long-hitters course then they will have to be dropped.
TIA
All I can find is that it is a par-72, was improved substantially a couple of years back for its centenary and last hosted an ANZ Tour event eight years ago when Mike Harwood shot 61 in the Australian PGA.
I know the players that I like this week, but they're tight/tough course players and if this is to be a birdie-fest or a long-hitters course then they will have to be dropped.
TIA
Preview & outright plays:
The finale to a memorable Australasian Tour season brings with it sub-plots and intrigue. The purse has been tripled this year to reflect the event's status, but it also adds to the suspense. Only three players can win the order of Merit - Baddeley who currently tops the standings, Campbell and Smail. But many more can gain a top-3 spot with good performances this week: Nick O?Hern, Peter Lonard, Geoff Ogilvy, Rod Pampling, Jarrod Moseley and Peter O?Malley in particular. The placings are important as they yield important exemptions:
Winner: Entry to the Open Championship, WGC American Express Championship, The Memorial (US Tour)
Top three players: Entry to the Open Championship, WGC American Express Championship
Top two players: Entry to US Open (provided they finish in top 75 in world rankings), US Tour School final stage
Peter Lonard has already stated that he will use the driver and attack the course to try and make something special happen. Given the course setup, that does not seem to be a very prudent strategy, but such are the sub-plots this week. The course is very short at just 6,700 yards, but it is very tight and Lonard has admitted that the penalties for not driving straight are severe. In a week when the pressure will be intense down the finishing stretch, it would appear the sensible option would be to side with the straighter hitters.
The three selected this week are Craig Parry, Peter O'Malley and Stephen Leaney, which is exactly the same trio as last week! Parry may not be involved in the differing Order of Merit scenarios, but there are few straighter hitters and despite an ugly last round last week, he is in cracking form. He even admitted in interview that he "could have blown them away" had his putter behaved. He is a winner on this course - 1992 Australian PGA Championship - and looks good to make amends for last week and steal the glory with everyone constantly looking over their shoulder.
Peter O'Malley is one whose finishing position could gain some important exemptions, but apart from the PGA Tour elements, he should already have those exemptions safe. Like Parry, one of the more accurate players on any Tour and comes to this event having finished strongly to gain 3rd place last week. Does not win as often as he should, but his experience should prove important in this type of event.
Stephen Leaney is another who finished strongly last week. Indeed, had it not been for an opening 75, then he may well have challenged the leaders. To desire to battle back and make the cut is noteworthy and he will be looking to finish an otherwise disappointing Australasian Tour season in style. He may not be as straight as the other two picks, but he is more of an accuracy than a power player and has ability that belies odds of 40/1.
Outright picks:
Craig Parry to win 16/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Peter O'Malley to win 33/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Stephen Leaney to win 40/1 e.w. @ Surrey
The finale to a memorable Australasian Tour season brings with it sub-plots and intrigue. The purse has been tripled this year to reflect the event's status, but it also adds to the suspense. Only three players can win the order of Merit - Baddeley who currently tops the standings, Campbell and Smail. But many more can gain a top-3 spot with good performances this week: Nick O?Hern, Peter Lonard, Geoff Ogilvy, Rod Pampling, Jarrod Moseley and Peter O?Malley in particular. The placings are important as they yield important exemptions:
Winner: Entry to the Open Championship, WGC American Express Championship, The Memorial (US Tour)
Top three players: Entry to the Open Championship, WGC American Express Championship
Top two players: Entry to US Open (provided they finish in top 75 in world rankings), US Tour School final stage
Peter Lonard has already stated that he will use the driver and attack the course to try and make something special happen. Given the course setup, that does not seem to be a very prudent strategy, but such are the sub-plots this week. The course is very short at just 6,700 yards, but it is very tight and Lonard has admitted that the penalties for not driving straight are severe. In a week when the pressure will be intense down the finishing stretch, it would appear the sensible option would be to side with the straighter hitters.
The three selected this week are Craig Parry, Peter O'Malley and Stephen Leaney, which is exactly the same trio as last week! Parry may not be involved in the differing Order of Merit scenarios, but there are few straighter hitters and despite an ugly last round last week, he is in cracking form. He even admitted in interview that he "could have blown them away" had his putter behaved. He is a winner on this course - 1992 Australian PGA Championship - and looks good to make amends for last week and steal the glory with everyone constantly looking over their shoulder.
Peter O'Malley is one whose finishing position could gain some important exemptions, but apart from the PGA Tour elements, he should already have those exemptions safe. Like Parry, one of the more accurate players on any Tour and comes to this event having finished strongly to gain 3rd place last week. Does not win as often as he should, but his experience should prove important in this type of event.
Stephen Leaney is another who finished strongly last week. Indeed, had it not been for an opening 75, then he may well have challenged the leaders. To desire to battle back and make the cut is noteworthy and he will be looking to finish an otherwise disappointing Australasian Tour season in style. He may not be as straight as the other two picks, but he is more of an accuracy than a power player and has ability that belies odds of 40/1.
Outright picks:
Craig Parry to win 16/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Peter O'Malley to win 33/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Stephen Leaney to win 40/1 e.w. @ Surrey
AV, I always look for it first.
For me, the odds of someone who loses don't matter. If I can increase my chances of having a winning ticket by 25% [5 places vs 4], then that is very important. Only if there is a very large discrepancy will I take on a '4 places' e.w. bet.
For me, the odds of someone who loses don't matter. If I can increase my chances of having a winning ticket by 25% [5 places vs 4], then that is very important. Only if there is a very large discrepancy will I take on a '4 places' e.w. bet.
Have added Nathan Green to the portfolio at 80-1 at Bet24hrs (who are betting 1st 5 on this event)
72-hole plays:
Craig Parry to beat Michael Campbell +140 @ DAS
Have to side the top-ranked player this week against one whose attacking instincts will probably penalise him this week. No doubting Campbell's form despite the missed cut at the Greg Norman Holden Invitational, but attractive odds for someone who has won on this course
Craig Parry to beat Nick O'Hern -105 @ Sportfanatik
Like Campbell, there can be no question over O'Hern's form, but like Campbell the distractions of the Order of Merit sideshow should provide the perfect opportunity for the pressure-less Parry to seek that elusive win of 2001
Scott Gardiner to beat Nathan Green -110 @ Surrey
Both players in good form and both tipped for better things, especially Gardiner. Expecting Gardiner to win this one as this is the 7th event in as many weeks for Green and his wiltering once he had gained a share of the Sunday lead last week may have an impact on Green
Craig Parry to beat Michael Campbell +140 @ DAS
Have to side the top-ranked player this week against one whose attacking instincts will probably penalise him this week. No doubting Campbell's form despite the missed cut at the Greg Norman Holden Invitational, but attractive odds for someone who has won on this course
Craig Parry to beat Nick O'Hern -105 @ Sportfanatik
Like Campbell, there can be no question over O'Hern's form, but like Campbell the distractions of the Order of Merit sideshow should provide the perfect opportunity for the pressure-less Parry to seek that elusive win of 2001
Scott Gardiner to beat Nathan Green -110 @ Surrey
Both players in good form and both tipped for better things, especially Gardiner. Expecting Gardiner to win this one as this is the 7th event in as many weeks for Green and his wiltering once he had gained a share of the Sunday lead last week may have an impact on Green
Usually my philosophy on other stuff, too, makes sense to me, i.e. if a point in basketball worth 10c, and you can get 1.95 on -10 or 1.85 on -8.5 or whatever, go the more likely win.
Quite clear that those with early tee times had the best of it on day 1 only 2 of the top 15 had late tee tee times Long and Cain, the latter has finished 3rd and 1st in this event in the last 2 years (albeit on different courses) but the 50-1 offered by Surrey seems quite generous
I know Baddeley is 5 shots clear but I think he will come back to the field
Green and Rumford had late tee times on day 1 so are not out of it yet
I know Baddeley is 5 shots clear but I think he will come back to the field
Green and Rumford had late tee times on day 1 so are not out of it yet
Update:
Morning tee-times have been a huge advantage so far this week, but sadly neither Parry nor Gardiner could make full use of their Thursday morning times and struggled to make the cut. Parry didn't by a single shot and in so doing lost an overnight four-shot advantage over Michael Campbell to end up losing by four; he lost to Nick O'Hern by eight. At least Gardiner made the cut, but he trails Green by five, though with an earlier start in the 3rd round, this cold very easily be overcome. In the outrights, Parry missed the cut, but Leaney lies in 4th place, two shots behind Baddeley, and O'Malley is in 20th place, just four shots further back.
3rd round plays:
Stephen Leaney to beat Nathan Green +100 @ Surrey [2 units]
Shigemasa Higaki to beat Wayne Perske +100 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Morning tee-times have been a huge advantage so far this week, but sadly neither Parry nor Gardiner could make full use of their Thursday morning times and struggled to make the cut. Parry didn't by a single shot and in so doing lost an overnight four-shot advantage over Michael Campbell to end up losing by four; he lost to Nick O'Hern by eight. At least Gardiner made the cut, but he trails Green by five, though with an earlier start in the 3rd round, this cold very easily be overcome. In the outrights, Parry missed the cut, but Leaney lies in 4th place, two shots behind Baddeley, and O'Malley is in 20th place, just four shots further back.
3rd round plays:
Stephen Leaney to beat Nathan Green +100 @ Surrey [2 units]
Shigemasa Higaki to beat Wayne Perske +100 @ Centrebet [2 units]
3rd round update: 1-1 and +0.00 units
Split the 3rd round plays as Leaney lost by five to Green and Higaki won by four over Perske. Not particularly close, though it did mean a drop in Leaney's position. Now he is out of a place position in 7th place. O'Malley also had a disappointing day and in 39th position is out of the hunt.
4th round plays:
Scott Hend to beat James Mclean +130 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Steve Alker to beat Paul Devenport +110 @ William Hill
Nick O'Hern to beat Stephen Leaney -133 @ DAS
Split the 3rd round plays as Leaney lost by five to Green and Higaki won by four over Perske. Not particularly close, though it did mean a drop in Leaney's position. Now he is out of a place position in 7th place. O'Malley also had a disappointing day and in 39th position is out of the hunt.
4th round plays:
Scott Hend to beat James Mclean +130 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Steve Alker to beat Paul Devenport +110 @ William Hill
Nick O'Hern to beat Stephen Leaney -133 @ DAS
Final update: 2-1-0 and +0.10 units for the day; 3-5-0 and -3.05 units for the week
A poor end to the ANZ Tour season. Lost the double-unit play as Mclean did shoot over-par, but so did Hend and by three shots more. Comfortable wins in the other two as Alker beat Devenport by four and in the hedge play, O'Hern beat Leaney by three. The remaining 72-hole play had been tied for much of the front nine, but it still finished a six-shot loss for Gardiner.
Update on the outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Had covered a poor final day performance by Leaney and it happened: he fell further down the leaderboard every day and finished in 19th position, five places ahead of O'Malley. Disappointing to end the season with a blank, but it has been a memorable and very profitable one none the less!
ANZ Tour ytd:
Matchups/props: 29-33; -11.58 units
Outright plays: 5-16; +67.38 units
Unlucky Ian
Green finished one shot out of a play-off and Rumford finished one place out of a win with BlueSq only offering 4 places
[This message has been edited by Stanley (edited 02-25-2001).]
A poor end to the ANZ Tour season. Lost the double-unit play as Mclean did shoot over-par, but so did Hend and by three shots more. Comfortable wins in the other two as Alker beat Devenport by four and in the hedge play, O'Hern beat Leaney by three. The remaining 72-hole play had been tied for much of the front nine, but it still finished a six-shot loss for Gardiner.
Update on the outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Had covered a poor final day performance by Leaney and it happened: he fell further down the leaderboard every day and finished in 19th position, five places ahead of O'Malley. Disappointing to end the season with a blank, but it has been a memorable and very profitable one none the less!
ANZ Tour ytd:
Matchups/props: 29-33; -11.58 units
Outright plays: 5-16; +67.38 units
Unlucky Ian
[This message has been edited by Stanley (edited 02-25-2001).]
Cheers Stan but I suppose a second place at 80-1 is better than nothing, just a bit galling that I backed Lonard heavily last week when he finished 6th
