Year To Date 11-6
Year To Date Bank = + $652
Huge card today with 15 games. That being said, there aren't that many spots that I really like as should be in a big card. But the season is long, and all novice baseball bettors should take note that just because there is a lot of games doesn't mean you have tons of value. Be patient, and find value games. With that said, protect your bankroll too. But more on bankroll in another post. I've noticed a lot of threads already about laying heavy chalk and agree with most of what has been said. Anyway, the selections.
Philly vs. Florida
Florida's Ace Beckett was beat up on opening day, but the bullpen has had a day to rest and should be ready.
Randy Wolf has WOLF is 1-7 when starting against FLORIDA with an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.491.
His team's record is 2-7 (-7.8 units) in these starts
never fared well against Florida.
Pavano is only 2-5 against Philly with an above 4 era BUT
we'll bite at florida getting their first victory of the season at home as dogs.
Recommended Play FLORIDA +100
Pirates vs. Reds
I've bashed the Reds plenty of times before and to be honest, I don't hate them, I just think they are a bad ballclub. Their pitching is average at best, but they don't have a good offenese. Griffey is half the player he was before, Barry Larkin gets the senior discount at the movies, and I'm convinced Sean Casey had one good year. I know Kip Wells has never beaten the Reds
WELLS is 0-3 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.95 , BUT
DEMPSTER is 2-3 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 5.68
Simply put, Dempster isn't gonna throw a one or two run game, and if it gets to a sluggfest, the Pirates have the better bats. I like em as dogs.
Recommended Play Pittsburgh +110
Chicago vs. Kansas City
The Sox aren't known for their pitching or their brutal defense. They are known for their bats. There bats were shut down against KC two days ago. They might never outpitch many teams, but they sure can outslugg them. I like the addition of Colon, but his track record against KC isn't that great:
COLON is 7-5 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 5.23
Jeremy Affeldt has opposed the Sox once, but lost the decision. I think the sox bats wake up, and if history is an indication Colon will allow some runs.
Recommended Play OVER 9.5 +100
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
Unlike the previous day, the Cubs ain't gonna score 15 runs again. Leiter has always pitched the cubs tough.
LEITER is 5-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.03 since 1997
BUT, one of my favorite pitchers last year was Matt Clement. This guy can flat out pitch.
CLEMENT is 2-2 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 2.74
He has all the makings of a dominant pitcher for years to come. I think there are problems with this Mets team surrounding the Glavine signing, Piazza suspension, and Howe hiring. I think it takes a while to get adjusted. Clement has good value as a dog in this spot
Recommended Play CUBS +112
Dodgers vs. DBacks
I know I've bet the dodgers every game of this series, and yes, I do like the dodgers, but I probably won't wager on them again for a long while. I just see tremendous value with this team in spots against division foes on the road. They are playing hungry and didn't quit yesterday against Schilling. How many of you big chalk players were scared. Anyway, getting Kevin Brown back is a big boost for the dodgers. They will go as he goes this year, you can guarantee that. My sources say he is healthy and has had a great spring. Playing Kevin Brown as small chalk when healthy is ridiculous value. He's an overlooked pitcher now that he was hurt, but if he is back (which he is supposed to be) I'll lay small chalk on him anytime. Even at the BOB.
Recommended Play DODGERS -124
Recap
Year to Date 11-6
Year to Date Bank = +$652
PENDING:
1)Florida +100 100/100 (L) -100
2)Pittsburgh +110 100/110 (W) +110
3)Chicago OVER 9.5 +100 100/100 (L) -100
4)Cubs +112 100/112 (L) -100
5)Dodgers -124 124/100 (W) +100
6)Angels -1.5 +115 100/115 (W) +115
7)Padres +115 100/115 (L) -100
Good luck to all
Year To Date Bank = + $652
Huge card today with 15 games. That being said, there aren't that many spots that I really like as should be in a big card. But the season is long, and all novice baseball bettors should take note that just because there is a lot of games doesn't mean you have tons of value. Be patient, and find value games. With that said, protect your bankroll too. But more on bankroll in another post. I've noticed a lot of threads already about laying heavy chalk and agree with most of what has been said. Anyway, the selections.
Philly vs. Florida
Florida's Ace Beckett was beat up on opening day, but the bullpen has had a day to rest and should be ready.
Randy Wolf has WOLF is 1-7 when starting against FLORIDA with an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.491.
His team's record is 2-7 (-7.8 units) in these starts
never fared well against Florida.
Pavano is only 2-5 against Philly with an above 4 era BUT
we'll bite at florida getting their first victory of the season at home as dogs.
Recommended Play FLORIDA +100
Pirates vs. Reds
I've bashed the Reds plenty of times before and to be honest, I don't hate them, I just think they are a bad ballclub. Their pitching is average at best, but they don't have a good offenese. Griffey is half the player he was before, Barry Larkin gets the senior discount at the movies, and I'm convinced Sean Casey had one good year. I know Kip Wells has never beaten the Reds
WELLS is 0-3 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.95 , BUT
DEMPSTER is 2-3 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 5.68
Simply put, Dempster isn't gonna throw a one or two run game, and if it gets to a sluggfest, the Pirates have the better bats. I like em as dogs.
Recommended Play Pittsburgh +110
Chicago vs. Kansas City
The Sox aren't known for their pitching or their brutal defense. They are known for their bats. There bats were shut down against KC two days ago. They might never outpitch many teams, but they sure can outslugg them. I like the addition of Colon, but his track record against KC isn't that great:
COLON is 7-5 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 5.23
Jeremy Affeldt has opposed the Sox once, but lost the decision. I think the sox bats wake up, and if history is an indication Colon will allow some runs.
Recommended Play OVER 9.5 +100
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
Unlike the previous day, the Cubs ain't gonna score 15 runs again. Leiter has always pitched the cubs tough.
LEITER is 5-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.03 since 1997
BUT, one of my favorite pitchers last year was Matt Clement. This guy can flat out pitch.
CLEMENT is 2-2 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 2.74
He has all the makings of a dominant pitcher for years to come. I think there are problems with this Mets team surrounding the Glavine signing, Piazza suspension, and Howe hiring. I think it takes a while to get adjusted. Clement has good value as a dog in this spot
Recommended Play CUBS +112
Dodgers vs. DBacks
I know I've bet the dodgers every game of this series, and yes, I do like the dodgers, but I probably won't wager on them again for a long while. I just see tremendous value with this team in spots against division foes on the road. They are playing hungry and didn't quit yesterday against Schilling. How many of you big chalk players were scared. Anyway, getting Kevin Brown back is a big boost for the dodgers. They will go as he goes this year, you can guarantee that. My sources say he is healthy and has had a great spring. Playing Kevin Brown as small chalk when healthy is ridiculous value. He's an overlooked pitcher now that he was hurt, but if he is back (which he is supposed to be) I'll lay small chalk on him anytime. Even at the BOB.
Recommended Play DODGERS -124
Recap
Year to Date 11-6
Year to Date Bank = +$652
PENDING:
1)Florida +100 100/100 (L) -100
2)Pittsburgh +110 100/110 (W) +110
3)Chicago OVER 9.5 +100 100/100 (L) -100
4)Cubs +112 100/112 (L) -100
5)Dodgers -124 124/100 (W) +100
6)Angels -1.5 +115 100/115 (W) +115
7)Padres +115 100/115 (L) -100
Good luck to all
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