Argue this........(oil continued)

ironlock

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BEAM ME UP SCOTTY!
I vainly attempted to relay the economics of the gas/oil industry, with failing results. After all my wasted time, the "price fixing", "we need price controls" posts continued to show up, much to my frustration.

I was so glad to find this article today.....please read it, and for those of you "conspiracy" believers, ADMIT DEFEAT...


BLACK-GOLD BLUES
More to gas prices
than cost of oil
Industry analysts list factors fueling increases at the pump

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


By Jon Dougherty


As Americans face the prospect of paying more per gallon of gas this summer than at any other time in U.S. history, oil and gas companies and industry analysts are scrambling to explain why the prices are rising, why they are rising so quickly and what factors have led to the current price increases.

In the past, analysts say, the price consumers pay at the pumps has largely been tied to the availability of foreign oil supplies, especially as the United States, over the past decade, has become increasingly reliant on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel and other suppliers for the majority of its oil.

As recently as last year, OPEC -- after enduring years of lower oil prices due to a worldwide glut -- began cutting production, which led to tighter supplies and higher prices. Though the cartel had agreed to boost production by last fall, OPEC ministers announced earlier this year that they would again cut production to boost prices.

Analysts say the cost of crude oil represents the single largest price-controlling factor in a gallon of gasoline. Oil companies and government analysts say taxes amount to about 29 percent of a price of a gallon of gas -- including federal, state and local levies.

And even though prices are on the rise now, the profit oil companies are making per gallon of gas has not risen as dramatically as some would think. Before the current price increases, the average profit per gallon made by oil companies was 7.5 cents -- a figure that has not risen much in the past several weeks, despite the spike in prices to over two dollars a gallon in parts of the country, including California and Illinois.

Another factor affecting prices is supply and demand. Traditionally, demand for gasoline falls during the winter months but rises in the summer, as more Americans take to the roads for vacations.

Oil companies have said that because of tight supplies through the winter and because many refineries did not produce gasoline but instead produced heating oil, gasoline reserves were allowed to plummet to all-time lows, thus boosting the price for the available fuel at precisely the time the demand begins to rise.

Who holds the cards?

At the current time, the OPEC nations -- Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela -- produce about 40 percent of the world's oil. In total, the cartel countries hold about 70 percent of the world's known reserves.

While the Bush administration has pledged to decrease U.S. reliance on foreign suppliers, the task cannot be accomplished overnight. Besides political considerations, oil reserves must be found and then the infrastructure to pump it and distribute it must be built. Also, U.S. refineries -- most of which are currently running at capacity -- must either expand to handle the new load, or companies must build new refineries, which takes years.

With U.S. domestic production capacity reduced, no major new oil finds to exploit and an almost non-existent oil-exploration industry, there is no reason to believe, analysts have said, that the United States will be able to ease its reliance on foreign suppliers anytime soon.

However, some analysts have said that rather than rely on OPEC's "charity," the U.S. may do well to begin securing its oil supplies from non-OPEC members who may be charging lower per-barrel prices, such as Mexico and Nigeria.

Even so, if the U.S. manages to find cheaper oil prices on the world market, the average price per barrel is expected to rise over the next six months.

Average prices in April hovered around $26.50 per barrel; by September, analysts are predicting oil prices will rise to over $30 a barrel. The Department of Energy, however, predicts that prices per barrel of oil will only average about $24 by the end of 2001 (in 1999 dollars).

The breakdown of costs

The cost to produce and deliver gasoline to consumers includes the cost of crude oil to refiners, refinery processing costs, marketing and distribution costs and, finally, the retail station costs and taxes, said a primer published by DOE.

The prices paid by consumers at the pump reflect these costs, as well as the profits (and sometimes losses) of refiners, marketers, distributors and retail station owners.

In 2000, when the price of crude oil averaged $28.36 per barrel, crude oil accounted for about 46 percent of the cost of a gallon of regular-grade gasoline. In comparison, the average price for crude oil in 1999 was $17.46 per barrel, and it composed 37 percent of the cost of a gallon of regular gasoline. The share of the retail price of regular-grade gasoline that crude oil costs represent varies somewhat over time and among regions, DOE said.

Federal excise taxes are 18.4 cents per gallon, and state excise taxes average 19.96 cents per gallon.

Refining costs and profits comprise about 14 percent of the retail price of gasoline. This component varies from region to region due to the different formulations required in different parts of the country.

Distribution, marketing and retail station costs and profits combined make up 12 percent of the cost of a gallon of gasoline. Approximately one-third of service station outlets today are company-owned stations, meaning they are owned or leased by a major oil company and operated by its employees, DOE said.

According to the Energy Information Agency, the reason why prices at the pumps are higher in some regions has to do with their distance from Gulf of Mexico ports along the U.S. coast. Nearly half of the gasoline produced in the U.S. is produced in the Gulf coast region, the area where prices are historically the lowest. That explains why prices are often higher in the upper Midwest, West and Northeast.

In response to the spiraling prices, some consumers and advocacy groups have suggested boycotting the major oil companies in lieu of purchasing gas from more competitive, often locally owned stations that tend to charge lower prices in order to compete


[This message has been edited by ironlock (edited 05-08-2001).]
 

djv

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I can believe everything said here. Or I could say it is said the way certain folks think it should be. Only thing I know for sure is. Last year $30 barrel of oil had me paying $1.77. That is a fact. Now we have
$26/27 barrel of oil. It has be at $1.86 and not slowing down. The other thing that report does not mention is what mergers did to refineries. Here in USA 4 refineries have been taken off line do to mergers. This has happen in last 4 years. So they say we just can't catch up going from one season to the other. I guess I know why. I am Not saying it is not there right to do so. But they could explain all the facts when doing these nice articals. As I said in the other thread I go along with supply and demand. Every time you and I go pay for that gas we help it along. But jumps of 10, 15 and 20 cents a day in some places. It has happen. Makes you wonder even if your good Republican. Many folks where I work say things like fu?? Calf. They have no idea what could happen to our Country. They think one way and thats it.

[This message has been edited by djv (edited 05-08-2001).]
 

djv

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Supply and Demand.
Fed tax is same every state per gallon.
Other states have form zero like Texas to 16 cents here in Wi. I have been told Calf has 27 cents.
Supply and Demand
Florida heaviest vaction state in the country demand. I hope so $1.59.
Texas where all is big and far a part. Demand I hope so. Last number I saw $1.49.
Wissky must have lots of demand $1.86.
Calf $2.20 for the cheap stuff.
Ill $1.92. for the cheap stuff.
Nevada $1.84 14 cent state tax.
YYZ you may have just said it all.
They call it Zoning. It is not illegal.
Is it shitty. You bet. And they try to blame it on everyone. They can do no wrong.
I still believe in supply and demand. I do however believe in ethics to.
 

redsfann

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Nothing like a true Republican to ignore the dozens of articles letting us all know about the RECORD profits the oil companies have seen in the first quarter of 2001.
Supply and demand? What a joke. Of course, I'm sure our good buddy Ironlock believes that the Earth is flat, too......
biggrin.gif

To be honest, all of the problems at the midwest refineries over the last few months can't help matters at all. ADM had a large batch of enthanol that was headed for Chicago be recalled due to tainting of some kind--- further tightening supplies in the upper midwest.
 

BobbyBlueChip

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For those without a NYTimes password:

Gasoline prices are rising again, and the administration is rushing to turn this into another argument for its drill-and-burn energy strategy. But a look at the causes of the current gasoline shortage actually suggests a quite different moral: namely, that conservation ought to be a major element in our energy strategy, and that lack of conservation is a large part of what we've been doing wrong.

First things first: This year's gasoline price spike has nothing to do with a shortage of crude oil. Even if we had already punched the Alaskan tundra and the ocean floor off Florida full of holes, we'd still be in the same fix. The binding constraint right now is the nation's limited capacity to refine crude oil into gasoline.

Why is refining capacity inadequate? No new refineries have been built in this country for 20 years, a point emphasized with obvious relish by Dick Cheney. His implicit subtext, of course, is that it's the fault of environmentalist types who stood in the oil industry's way. That must be the story, right?

Wrong. It's true that environmental rules have somewhat crimped the production of our existing refineries. The problem is not so much the strictness of the regulations as their lack of consistency: each region has its own rules ? like the insistence of Midwestern states that gasoline include corn-derived ethanol ? fragmenting the nation's production. But the reason the oil industry didn't build any new refineries for two decades was that they weren't needed. In fact, right up until last year oil refining was a persistently depressed business, plagued by overcapacity.

Here's what happened: In the wake of the energy crisis in the 1970's, ordinary people in the United States began conserving energy ? not as a "sign of personal virtue," as Mr. Cheney sneeringly puts it, but because they wanted to save money. Cars, in particular, became much more fuel-efficient. Meanwhile the oil industry was subject to "refinery creep," the tendency of refining capacity to grow through incremental improvements even when no new refineries are built. The result was excess capacity and squeezed margins, right up to the late 1990's.

What finally brought us up against capacity constraints was a surge in demand that was partly due to the economic boom of the later Clinton years, but mainly due to the renewed enthusiasm of Americans for huge, gas-guzzling vehicles ? an enthusiasm, er, fueled by cheap gas. In 1998 gasoline was cheaper compared with overall consumer prices than ever before in U.S. history ? 60 percent cheaper than it was in 1981. The nation rushed out to buy ever-bigger S.U.V.'s ? and then suddenly discovered that we had run out of refining capacity. Refiners weren't frustrated by rules that prevented them from building new facilities; they were simply caught by surprise.

You have to bear this history in mind when parsing Mr. Cheney's recent speeches. To listen to him, you would imagine that we live in a country in which powerful political forces oppose energy production and preach a return to the dark ages. "To speak exclusively of conservation," Mr. Cheney declared in one speech, "is to duck the tough issues . . . it is not a sufficient basis ? all by itself ? for a sound, comprehensive energy policy." In another speech he ridiculed unspecified types for "saying to the American people that you have to live in the dark, turn out all of the lights." The story according to Mr. Cheney, in other words, is that we have an energy shortage because extreme conservationists prevented us from developing the supply capacity that serious people knew we needed.

Need I point out that this, like so much of what one hears from this administration, is a cynical misrepresentation? I defy Mr. Cheney to come up with examples of influential people who "speak exclusively of conservation," let alone anyone who says to the American people that they have to live in the dark. In fact, hardly any important politicians have spoken about conservation at all ? never mind exclusively ? this past decade.

We will need to build more refineries ? and more power plants, and pipelines, and so on. But it is ludicrous to suggest that our current energy woes are the result of too much emphasis on conservation. It would be closer to the truth to say that we are in trouble now because our politicians haven't dared even use the word.
 

ironlock

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Coldbeer4soul-

Good article, from a well respected author and economist, Ive read a couple of his books.

But, please explain to me how he "echoes" redsfann's highly intellectual statement.."supply and demand, what a joke". You cannot draw one ounce of corelation between Krugman's rational statements and redsfann's conclusions...

Krugman would laugh at such words....

YYZ-
Thanks for the sound intellectual argument, the elaborate foundation you have applied to your opinion demonstrates the depths of your thinking... THANK YOU SIR...

Redsfann-
I guess I assumed wrongly that at least you would be equipped for sound debate. Please chart the data suggesting that AMERICAN OIL companies are enjoying RECORD profits. But also, please demonstrate how prices have nothing to do with SUPPLY/DEMAND. Lastly, please tell me what my being a republican has to do with the reason for high gas prices. I am a republican because I studied economics, I am not an economist because I was first a republican, as you seem to assume. One flows from the other, not vice versa.

On last note. Your subtle accusatoin of ignorance at the end of your post cannot be cleverly disquised with a
biggrin.gif
. I would have thought that you of all people could see that my beliefs on this issue are based on sound economic logic, theory, and fact. Not some piped up political spin. If you want to debate me on this, show a little respect and debate the logic, theory and fact. A nimwit with a sentence could exceed the intelligence in these responses.

If an objective person read this long drawn out debate. Who would he say was basing their beliefs on politics? "george bush and big oil"

Who is basing their argument on economics law?

I know you guys want to blame republicans and businesses for everything, but when you are exposed for the weakness in your argument, please have the dignity to admit it.

Iron.


[This message has been edited by ironlock (edited 05-09-2001).]
 

redsfann

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coldbeer--

OF COURSE I was joking, any rational person could see that, but our friend Ironlock refuses to be rational about this topic, or any others we might bring up.
He wishes to engage in debate-- but ONLY when its totally one sided in his favor. His ability to post many statements favoring his position is well documented here, but when I or anyone else(see various posts above) offer the slightest challenge to his precious arguements --- he is unable to believe he just might wrong for a change.
I would think he would be used to it by now-- seeing as hes wrong 95% of the time any way.
And truly, Ironlock-- me debating you is something I have no interest in doing. Why? Because I would have more fun watching the grass grow in my backyard than trying to reason with someone who is obviously never wrong.
 

redsfann

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...and furthermore, Ironlock, do you not read the papers, or just the ones that are just echoing your point of view.
The paper I was refering to was the Chicago Tribune of a few days ago when it ran an article about the record profits of the oil companies. The Trib is a highly respected CONSERVATIVE newspaper-- and yet, they print an article regarding BP and its HUGE first quarter profits.
In addition, I also mention in my reply to your post about the troubles with a very large batch of ethanol that was due to be shipped to chicago-area refineries to produce the fuel that is required for that area. It had to be recalled, thereby causing a shortage-- which in turn led to a spike in gas prices. So, what does that tell us? Supply and demand just might have something to do with the price of gas. Duh-- even you figured that one out by yourself.
My "supply and demand-- what a joke" -- comment was regarding the current price volitiliy and trying to blame the current prices on supply and demand. there is plenty of oil to be refined, just no capacity at the refineries to do it.
I have absolutly no illusions that you can see what I and others are trying to say here-- after all one must be able to think for oneself, and you demonstrate quite clearly that that is something you have never been able to do.
 

yyz

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Hey Lock,

I did apply my thinking in earlier posts on this tired subject. I also included facts, which you seem to like to forget about. Funny thing is, you seem to be the one who has no argument other than, "because I say so!"

You go ahead and believe what you want to believe about this scam, and let the rest of us believe what we want.

But keep this shit off of a personal level:

YYZ-
Thanks for the sound intellectual argument, the elaborate foundation you have applied to your opinion demonstrates the depths of your thinking... THANK YOU SIR...


I gave you "sound, intellectual argument", and DID elaborate in earlier posts!

Don't try to call me out, or challenge my intelect because I disagree with you. I will not re-post the same arguement to you, or anyone else over and over.

You stated about 4 posts ago that you were done with this, but you keep re-posting. Let it go.

I'll give you one more fact:

No matter what gas costs, the only ones who will be paying for it in the long run, are the consumers. Every cent will be passed on to us, and we will pay it. $10, $50 a gallon? We will be forced to pay it. Prices will rise in the cost we pay for anything that involves gasoline/petrolium to transport it. (Um, that would be about everything!)

Since I don't see too many "going outta bidniz" signs hanging over the doors of any gas stations, I won't shed too many tears over their financial plight, or the mere "pennies" they are putting in their pockets.

One last thought, and this WILL be my last post on this crap......

Why don't the big oil companies quit selling to the independants, and just sell it themselves? Cut out the middle-man and we would all save some beans!

I gotta go "fill 'er up". The price is going up another nickel a gallon tomorrow.
 

djv

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Redsfann is not that far off point. I want to try and say something that makes all of us agree some what. I do believe those four refineries taken off line the last 4 years hurt. Why was it done. Mergers. Another thing that is strange I will mention it again. When oil was $30 a barrel I was paying $1.77. It was below $27 a barrel just a week back. I was paying $1.84. Why?
Same tax still in place. Now are we short oil. No the supply is strong. But there behind in refining. Where are those four refineries. Shut Down. As long as the price can be held up there gone forever. So yes we have some supply and demand going on. We also have some ethics that are sad. Is some of this our own fault. Sure and since 1973/74 we should have been all over our government. I know it's not that easy. I also know some of you were not old enough to drive. But then we had real shortages. You could sit in line for your gas for 1/2 hour many places. Then some places whould let you have 10 bucks worth only. We don't see that today because there is all the gas you want for a price. Heck highest I payed during the shotages of 70's was $1.74. Guys are depate is a good one. But I say one last time something smells. Ironlock in your own little way you have to see that. Even if it's only a inch or two.

[This message has been edited by djv (edited 05-09-2001).]
 

buddy

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Bumper sticker from the early 70's that I had pasted on my VW Bug.....

"Eat more beans...America needs the gas"
 

djv

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Buddy I love it. For got about some those bumper stickers. So you remember. I remember all those gas eating beast they were selling us. Going on sale for half price. If I remember many baught motor cycles. I rode my old 3 speed bike to work.
 
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