Ari @ StL O/U 44.5???

[RipIt3]

Why would the books set this line so high? They're requiring at least 7 scores to cover (6 TD's and 1 FG = 45 points).

My guess is this: The gen public knows Arizona sucks and generally are going to think sucky teams don't put up a lot of points. They also know MFaulk is out and that can only mean bad things for an already sputtering offense. Set that to a high total line and I would expect the under to be hammered.

So why would the books do that? Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't the books smarter than the gen public? They have to know that set high enough, the under is going to be pounded, why isn't this game at least a TD less, at the 38-39 range?

My guess is this: They know that if they set the line over 41, the general public will hammer the under with a bad team playing and MFaulk out. They also know that this game could turn into a shoot-out with two teams that can throw the ball playing each other while neither possesses a strong passing defense. That way, a bunch of money comes in on the under and the game soars over - leaving all those poor souls watching the game disgusted.

I can see it. The line doesn't make sense to me, seems too high everything considered. A trap? I think it might be, but I don't have the confidence to pull it given my track history so far this season. What do you think?

 

[chuckdman]

Your Right

Your Right

The line is high. My book is offering it for 45 right now and was going to take it today but thought I would look into a bit further.

My opinion, with no faulk (and even with him) St. Louis will throw the ball alot and Arizona's secondary is pretty bad. Don't understand why Greenbay didn't beat them but they suck this year too Really can't see Arizona putting up 14+ points which leaves the Rams with 31? Very hard to understand but I will look into it tonight.

St Louis has scored 21ppg in the first 3
Arizona has scored 14.7ppg in the first 3
Which bring it the SUPER grand total of 35.7?

St. Louis has given up 23ppg in the first 3
Arizona has given up 31ppg
Which brings us to 54ppg... Arizona got it handed to them by allowing detroit to score 42pts and Seattle shut them out 38-0.

StLouis played Giants, SF, Seattle
Arizona played Det, Sea, GB

Overall, I do believe that this will go down on Sunday (or sooner).

Come on stat crunchers.. lets find out what up with this....

 

[DELLMONT]

It looks like it's too easy...


under????


-DELLMONT

 

[RipIt3]

I did a write-up on on my take for this to go over that I'm going to post below. There's a lot that's fishy going on, I don't believe Martz for a minute. We'll see though...

Ari O 44.5
Ok, I'm really not sure about this game. I'll probably end up laying off it, but I thought I'd write it up and put it out there to see what you guys think...

I don't know if Martz is playing mind games or what, saying he's scaling back the StLouis O due to injuries at RB. Seems to me if I was thin at RB and had a QB capable of throwing the ball around the field and WR capable of stretching it, I would do just that to open up running lanes for a depleted backfield. Martz, however, has stated the opposite. He's come out and said they are going to focus on a short passing game and running the ball. The question is, do I believe him? Is it a ploy? I think it might be...

A game between StL and Ari, two teems that can throw the ball around and don't offer much resistance on D, could turn into a shoot-out very quickly. However...

StL runs a zone scheme in their secondary. Arizona's Jeff Blake has a history of tough games against such defenses. His receivers aren't fast enough and deep enough (talent-wise) to stretch the zone to be effective against a StL zone defense. WR Boldin, for example, is good in man-to-man because of his open field abilities and his ability to run after the catch. What the zone does to the Cardinals passing game is forces Blake to be extremely accurate with his placement as well as making correct reads and for him to be on the same page with his receivers.

A number of things are working against Arizona here. First, Blake isn't that type of QB. He never has been. He's much better against man-to-man coverage when he can make a few more mistakes with the football and be bailed out by receivers making adjustments on their man. The second lies in the fact that the Cardinals receivers are young. It takes a lot more knowledge and discipline to have an effective passing game against a zone secondary when it comes to making correct reads and having experience to be on the same page with the QB.

One of two things is going to happen in this game:
1) StLouis is lying and they are going to come out throwing the ball right out of the gate - putting Arizona's porous pass D on its heels from the start - causing scoring to soar over the the total as Ari would be forced to play the same style of ball to keep up ... or ....
2) StLouis will actually come out running the ball and throwing short passes, controlling the clock. In which case, Ari can counter with E.Smith - used to running on artificial surfaces - and the two teams will play a ball control/field position game and this total won't reach 40.

I have to believe Martz is lying. There are few secondaries in the NFL that are as bad as Arizona, especially an Arizona team on the road. Detroit threw the ball all over the field on them for crying out loud. To come out running the ball with a backfield that is beat up makes absolutely no sense at all. The time to do that was three weeks ago with M.Faulk, but Martz didn't learn from last year and didn't do it then, so why would I expect him to make sense now? Who knows. He has to see the mismatch with his passing game and the Ari secondary and he has to know that Ari's passing O, while it can be successful against StL pass D, isn't tailored for that type of coverage.

I'm going to lay off of this one, leaving me at 4 plays for the weekend. For fun though, and not counting against my record, I'm going to call Martz's bluff and say he's going to throw the ball around a bit.

St Louis Pass D :
Opposing QB Rating = 81.4 (19th)
Yards/Game = 233.7 (20th)
Yards/Attempt = 6.81 (19th)

v NYG - Kerry Collins 14/26, 202 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
v SF - Jeff Garcia 19/25, 222 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
v Sea - Matt Hasselbeck 22/39, 256 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Jeff Blake (Season): 55/91, 686, 4 TD, 4 INT

Arizona Pass D :

Opposing QB Rating = 106.0 (32nd)
Yards/Game = 211.7 (15th)
Yards/Attempt = (7.56 27th)

v Det - Joey Harrington 17/30, 195, 4 TD, 0 INT
v Sea - Matt Hasselbeck 8/19, 175, 2 TD, 0 INT
v GB - Brett Favre 23/33, 245, 1 TD, 1 INT
Bulger (Season): 46/70, 462, 3 TD, 2 INT