Arizona at St. Louis - Misc Write-ups

[Senor Capper]

Cardinals predicted to suffer first NFL loss


The Arizona Cardinals are one of the feel-good stories of the league this year, but like the Philadelphia Eagles, have been on shaky ground from week to week.

Much has been made of the Cardinals? 4-0 start being their best since 1974, but maybe that?s not so stunning considering the team has played three of its first four games at home for only the second time in four decades. By contrast, in 11 seasons since landing in the desert they opened with three road battles in their first four outings.

Also, in Week 4 the Cardinals needed overtime to defeat Miami ? winning despite only 28 yards rushing, the lousiest total for a victorious NFL team in more than a year.

And don?t disregard the fact Arizona has one of the oldest rosters in the league that?s playing on short rest on the road. Thus, the Cardinals? unbeaten bubble could be ready to burst.

Now for a closer look at this game:

PRO FOOTBALL THURSDAY, OCT. 4

Arizona Cardinals (4-0) at St. Louis Rams (2-2)

Time: 5:25 p.m. PDT

Line: Cardinals -1 (38?)

Facts: The last time these teams collided, in Week 12 last season, the Cardinals won 23-20 as a 2?-point underdog. The Rams haven?t been a favorite since.

? Arizona is listed as having the fourth-oldest roster at the start of the season. Last year, teams in the top four in age went 0-3 ATS on three day?s rest. Conversely, St. Louis has the youngest roster but is under Jeff Fisher, who?s the second-longest tenured active head coach.

? The Cardinals have gone 11-2 (9-4 ATS) since midseason last year, triggered by a 19-13 home victory against the Rams.

? Arizona is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite the past four seasons.

? The Rams, behind QB Sam Bradford, beat Seattle 19-13 last week, but their only TD came on a pass by the punter out of field goal formation.

Analysis: The Cardinals have had their remarkable run behind QB Kevin Kolb, who was beaten out this summer by last year?s No. 32-rated passer John Skelton, who left with an injury in Week 1. Although Kolb has been steady, with seven TD throws and only two INTs, he?s been under incredible duress, getting sacked eight times last week vs. the Dolphins.

With a running game averaging 2.7 a rush, play-action is a waste of time for the league?s No. 31 offense. On the other hand, St. Louis RB Steven ?Whirlpool? Jackson is listed only as ?probable? (groin), which is an enormous boost for the Rams.

St. Louis also showed in a Week 2 win over Washington the capability of overcoming adversity, since having a -2 turnover differential in that game.

Forecast: Rams 21, Cardinals 17

 

[Senor Capper]

UNDEFEATED CARDINALS AT RAMS THURSDAY NIGHT
BY: EXPERT HANDICAPPER ********
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 2ND 2012
______________________________________________

Based on their recent history against the St. Louis Rams, it appears the Arizona Cardinals have a good chance to continue the team's best start in 38 years. The Cardinals look to remain undefeated when they try for an eighth consecutive road win over the improved St. Louis Rams on Thursday night. With three victories by four or fewer points, Arizona (4-0) joins Houston and Atlanta as the NFL's lone unbeaten teams. "We are a good team," said coach Ken Whisenhunt, whose club's eight wins in 2011 came by seven or fewer points -- four in overtime. "We play well together and our guys make plays."

Off to its best start since Jim Hart quarterbacked the St. Louis Cardinals to a 7-0 start in 1974, Arizona has won 11 of 13 -- the best mark in the league during that span. "There's no question chemistry is a big part of it," Whisenhunt said. "We started to develop that last year over that stretch and you could see it in training camp and the offseason. You never know what that's going to mean, but in some tough situations this year you've seen that come out. You've seen some guys believe in each other, work hard and to me that's what a team is all about."

Whisenhunt hopes that belief and his team's collective confidence extends to the prime-time stage. Arizona has won 10 of 11 against the Rams (2-2), and seven straight at the Edward Jones Dome since a 17-10 loss there Sept. 12, 2004. Arizona took both meetings last season after losing 19-6 at home to the Rams on Dec. 5, 2010. Though the Cardinals have fared well in St. Louis, the teams' last two games there were decided by a combined seven points. Both of the Rams' victories this season have come at home -- by nine total points. "They're excited to be able to play," coach Jeff Fisher said after the Rams hung on for a 19-13 win over Seattle on Sunday.

"It's prime time and we hope things work out well for us." The potential of another close contest likely won't faze the Cardinals, who forced one fumble that led to the tying touchdown late in regulation and another in overtime to set up Jay Feely's 46-yard field goal for a 24-21 victory over Miami on Sunday. "I don't know what it is with us that we have to take it to the last moment of the game, but we're winning and that's all that matters," said third-year receiver Andre Roberts, who caught six passes for 118 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns.

Though the Cardinals rank 29th with 68.0 rushing yards per game, Kevin Kolb has completed 62.6 percent of his passes while throwing seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Larry Fitzgerald has 17 receptions for 178 yards and two TDs over the last two games after catching five for 67 without a score in the first two. Defensively, Arizona ranks third in the NFL with 15.2 points allowed per contest and is fourth with 10 turnovers forced, including a league-high six fumble recoveries.

The Rams, who turned the ball over once versus Seattle, have matched their win total from 2011 and can move above .500 after five games for the first time since opening 4-1 in 2006. With Sam Bradford ranking in the bottom half of the league with an 80.1 passer rating and Steven Jackson rushing for 195 yards and no touchdowns, St. Louis' biggest offensive contributor has been rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein. The sixth-round pick from Missouri Western State has converted all 12 of his field-goal attempts. He made four Sunday, including a franchise-record 58-yarder that he topped when he connected from 60 yards in the third quarter.

"Right now, our kicker is the MVP of the season," said Jackson, who has averaged 61.4 rushing yards and scored one TD in seven home games against the Cardinals. "Pretty much, all we've got to do is get across the 50-yard line and we're in his range." St. Louis' only touchdown against the Seahawks also came via special teams, as undrafted rookie punter and holder Johnny Hekker hit Danny Amendola with a 2-yard touchdown pass on a fake field goal. The Rams rank second in the league with eight interceptions.

?HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
----------------------
--ARIZONA is 17-8 against the spread versus ST LOUIS since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 16-9 straight up against ST LOUIS since 1992.
--15 of 25 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--ST LOUIS is 13-12 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA since 1992.
--12 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
--Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings in St. Louis.

?MATCHUP POWER TRENDS
----------------------
--ST LOUIS is 10-31 ATS (-24.1 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 18.2, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 3*)

--ST LOUIS is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 9.1, OPPONENT 24.6 - (Rating = 3*)

?SITUATIONAL POWER TRENDS
--------------------------
--ARIZONA is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 16.9, OPPONENT 18.1 - (Rating = 2*)

--ARIZONA is 4-16 against the 1rst half line (-13.6 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 7.9, OPPONENT 11.4 - (Rating = 2*)

--ARIZONA is 3-15 against the 1rst half line (-13.5 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 7.3, OPPONENT 12.0 - (Rating = 3*)

--ARIZONA is 2-14 against the 1rst half line (-13.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 6.4, OPPONENT 14.8 - (Rating = 3*)

--ARIZONA is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 6.1, OPPONENT 7.4 - (Rating = 2*)

--ARIZONA is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total off a home win over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 4.9, OPPONENT 12.1 - (Rating = 2*)

--ARIZONA is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 6.3, OPPONENT 9.8 - (Rating = 2*)

--ARIZONA is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 6.1, OPPONENT 10.4 - (Rating = 2*)

--ST LOUIS is 13-36 ATS (-26.6 Units) after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 18.4, OPPONENT 23.5 - (Rating = 2*)

--ST LOUIS is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 16.0, OPPONENT 22.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--ST LOUIS is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 8.5, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 3*)

--ST LOUIS is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 18.4, OPPONENT 18.2 - (Rating = 2*)

?COACHING TRENDS
-----------------
--Whisenhunt is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) in a road game where the first half total is between 18 and 21 as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was ARIZONA 4.3, OPPONENT 14.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--Whisenhunt is 5-22 against the 1rst half line (-19.2 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was ARIZONA 7.6, OPPONENT 13.0 - (Rating = 4*)

--Fisher is 21-5 against the 1rst half line (+15.5 Units) as a home underdog of 1.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Fisher 13.3, OPPONENT 10.2 - (Rating = 3*)

?BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (ARIZONA) - in a game involving two poor teams (outgained by 40-100 YPG), after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
(30-5 since 1983.) (85.7%, +24.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 10 (Total first half points scored = 15.4)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).

_________________________

 

[Senor Capper]

LOCKTOBERFEST KICKS-OFF!!!

We have no top-rated plays for Thursday, but we do have a couple of modest opinions...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Opinions
NFL - CARDINALS -PK (-125) at rams (5:25pm)
NCAA -USC -14 at utah (6pm)

*Lines at LV Hilton 10-4-12, 12am
**All times Pacific

 

[Senor Capper]

Matchup: Arizona at St. Louis
Time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Arizona (ML -120)
Line Source: Peppermill
Posted on: October 4, 2012 @ 10:54:02 AM EDT

VI gives us the best line available but to be clear, I like Arizona even at -1.5 or -2. The Cardinals are getting better QB play with Kevin Kolb throwing seven touchdown passes compared to only two interceptions. Meanwhile, Sam Bradford has just a 4/4 TD-INT ratio. The Cardinals have won seven in a row at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis. I think they make it eight straight tonight.

 

[Senor Capper]

Matchup: Arizona at St. Louis
Time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: St. Louis (+1.5 -110)
Line Source: Bookmaker
Posted on: October 3, 2012 @ 3:40:48 PM EDT

Arizona?s luck finally runs out on Thursday night. The Cards are an improbable 4-0 on the year despite getting outgained in EVERY game so far this season. The Birds have been outyarded by a total of 341 yards so far this year. They are averaging just 4.6 yards per play while allowing 5.3. The offense has been poor scoring just 9 offensive TD?s in 4 games. We don?t see those struggles changing as this team can?t run the ball as they average just 68 YPG on 2.7 YPC and they don?t have an elite QB. Kevin Kolb is a better option than John Skelton in our opinion but he is far from elite. Last week at home they were destroyed by 183 yards by a young Miami team but were able to tie the game late (scored a TD with 22 seconds left) and then won in overtime. Three of their four games were decided in the final few seconds so this team is just a few plays away from being potentially 1-3. The Rams are 2-0 at home with wins over formidable opponents Washington & Seattle. St. Louis has a big advantage here on a short week. They have what basically amounts to a full extra day to prepare for this game. Arizona played a late afternoon game that went into overtime on Sunday. Because they play on Thursday, their ?travel day? will be a ?preparation day? for the Rams. This is just the 2nd road tilt for Arizona this year and they are not very good laying points on the road where they have lost 4 of the last 5 to the number dating back to 2008. Take the Rams at home Thursday night.

 

[Senor Capper]

:box2:

 

[Senor Capper]

******* SPORTS

TOP PLAYS

3 UNIT PLAYS

ST LOUIS +1.5 over Arizona: This is a bad spot for the Cardinals as they are on a short week and must travel to take on a Jeff Fishers coached St Louis squad that is home for the 2nd week in a row. This really is a false 4-0 Arizona team. Last week the Cardinals were at home vs a Miami Team that had to travel cross country with a rookie QB and they still needed OT to beat them. Tannehill threw for 400+ yards in that game, showing that their defense has some holes and I expect the crafty Jeff Fisher to come up with a way to exploit that. The Cardinals are not all that good on offense, ranking 25th in passing and 28th and it will be harder for them to run the ball in this one as the Rams get their top run stuffer (Michael Brockers). Stopping the run has been the weakness of the Rams (26th) but they have stopped the pass very well, ranking 11th in the league and let's note that 2 of the opposing QB they have faced are RG3 and Mathew Stafford, so that makes their pass defense ranking even more impressive. Now that pass defense will take on Kevin Kolb, who has a 97.6 QB rating, but still haven't impressed that much throwing for just 188 ypg. On the other side Sam Bradford had a couple of good outings to start the year but struggled in his last 2 games vs tougher defenses. but he has thrown for 265.5 ypg at home and he has 3 TD to just 2 INT's at home, compared to 1 TD and 2 INT's on the road. Jeff Fisher is a solid coach and as a home dog he has done pretty well in his career. Arizona's offense is weak and will be one dimensional in this one and I don't feel that Kolb will make enough plays to pull it out. I also look for Fisher to find a way to exploit that suspect pass defense of the Cardinals. The Cardinals may be 4-0, but they are still ranked at #20 in the Vegas Power Rankings and I feel that makes a St Louis team that is 2-0 at home a Live Dog here. It will be close, but I look for a late FG by Greg Zuerlein, who is a perfect 12-for-12 on field-goal attempts to be the difference here.

6 POINT TEASER --- St Louis +7.5 & Under 45.5




----------------


****** FORECASTER FREE PICK
ARIZONA (301) AT ST. LOUIS (302)
Latest Line: Rams +1.5; Total: 39.0


The Cardinals have a chance to continue their fast start when they hit the road to meet the Rams Thursday night. Arizona has won seven in a row SU at St. Louis (5-2 ATS). The Cards still have some flaws on offense, but the emergence of WR Andre Roberts across from Larry Fitzgerald has given them some semblance of balance in the passing game. Their defense has carried them thus far, though they struggled to contain the Dolphins' downfield passing attack in Week 4. The Rams have made strides under first-year head coach Jeff Fisher, though their offense has topped 300 yards just once in their first four games.
***** FORECASTER: ARIZONA 23, ST. LOUIS15

 

[Senor Capper]

******

Cardinals / Rams Under 39.5

The Arizona Cardinals (4-0, 3-1 ATS) were extremely fortunate to get by the Dolphins last week 24-21 in overtime despite being badly outplayed on the stat sheet, and they now have a road date with the pesky St. Louis Rams (2-2, 3-1 ATS) Thursday night. You can catch all the action from the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO at 8:20 ET live on NFL Network.

The Cardinals managed to remain unbeaten despite getting dominated on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball by Miami. Arizona was outgained by a robust 183 total yards in the contest, as what had been a formidable defensive line over the first three weeks was unable to put sufficient pressure on the Dolphins' rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, enabling him to pass for an amazing 431 yards. The offensive line was even worse, as it was unable to open up any running lanes or pass protect. The Cardinals had a pathetic 28 rushing yards for the game on 15 carries (1.9 YPC) while the Miami front seven spent most of the game in the Arizona backfield, sacking Kevin Kolb eight times! At the end of the day though, good teams find a way to win games where they are badly outplayed, and Arizona was able to do that under extreme circumstances as the Cardinals tied the game 21-21 on a fourth-and-10 touchdown pass from Kolb to Andre Roberts with 22 seconds left in regulation time. Now it remains to be seen if the Cardinal were simply looking past that non-conference game while looking ahead to this divisional battle just four days later. You may have the answer to that question in the early minutes of this contest.

As for the Rams, they have already matched their win total from all of last year when they finished at 2-14, and they are a perfect 2-0 here at the Edward Jones Dome so far after upsetting the Seattle Seahawks 19-13 last week. St. Louis also won a game where it was probably outplayed, although not to the degree that Arizona was. The Rams were only outgained by 33 total yards, but they were unable to run the ball much, managing only 75 yards on 27 carries as Steven Jackson seems to still be affected by his nagging groin injury. Quarterback Sam Bradford was not spectacular either, completing 16-of-30 passes for 221 yards and one interception without throwing a touchdown pass. In fact, the star of the game for the Rams was their rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein, who kicked four field goals while twice setting team records for the longest field goal in franchise history! He first broke the team record by booting a 58-yarder in the first quarter, only to later top that by booming a 60-yarder in the third quarter. St. Louis did not have a legitimate offensive touchdown in the game, as its only touchdown came off of a fake field goal.

Arizona swept the two head-to-head meeting last season, and when the last matchup went 'over' in a 23-20 win, it snapped a seven-game 'under' streak in this series. The 'under' is also 11-5 in the last 16 Arizona divisional games, as well as 15-6-1 in the last 22 St. Louis conference games. Meanwhile, Arizona is 6-2 ATS and 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings here in St. Louis.


2-0 last 2 NFL picks
2-0 last 2 NFL totals

 

[IE]

write-ups are fine but please do not promote the touts on the forum, thanks.

 

[Senor Capper]

sorry bout that chief :0074

Just posted them...I don't read them...my bad

I thnk I fixe the rest

 

[IE]

thanks..

appreciate it Senor, good luck w/ the hilton this weekend.

 

[the addict]

thanks..

appreciate it Senor, good luck w/ the hilton this weekend.

IE you never miss anything.


i bet your good at golf at darts :toast:





thanks for the info senor, you are one of the biggest positive contributors to the site :toast:

 

[Senor Capper]

Thx IE ( I may just need that )

-----------


OMG I LOVE LAWN DARTS !!! :0074

Thx Addict :0008

 

[Senor Capper]

LOL
oops

I don't have my glasses on.
I love lawn darts anyway !!

 

[the addict]

LOL
oops

I don't have my glasses on.
I love lawn darts anyway !!

im cool with lawn darts too....


what is the game with a frisbee and garbage cans???

can jam I think?????

thats fun....




anyways, good luck sir, and good luck with the hilton :toast:

 

[Senor Capper]

Can Jam sounds scary LOL

thx dude