LSU should be in a relatively comfortable position today. They are hosting the Razorbacks and control their own destiny in the SEC. They need to dominate today if they are going to have any chance of overtaking USC, so they know exactly what to do. The only question is ?Can they??
The LSU offense has seen this defense before. Florida, South Caroline and Alabama all bring the same mix of fairly good rush defense with fairly bad (to be generous in Bama?s case) pass defense. I normally wouldn?t expect any different performance from LSU in this game, but there?s a problem. LSU tends to pass less when facing better rushing defenses. I call this the Pat Hill Syndrome (PHS). When coaches suffering from PHS get it in their heads that they are going to run the ball in a game (often this decision was made the previous spring), NOTHING is going to change their minds. If Nick has been on his medication, I think Mauck should be able to put plenty of points on the board through the air until those big old boys in red start getting real tired and the running game can take control. I?d look for a couple of passing TDs and an INT from Mauck, and 40-50 rushes for a couple of hundred yards. In the past, this has been worth around 20 to 27 points and I?m looking for the same here. If the PHS is out of control, I still think they can hang 17-20.
To a small extent, Nutt exhibits PHS as well, but they run the ball SO MUCH, I don?t think that the relatively mild negative correlation (pass attempts with average defensive rushing yards allowed per game) means anything. The problem Arkansas has is that they haven't shown anything when their running game isn't working, and by God, LSU has shown that they can shut a RB down,and they haven't faced a run defense anywhere near as good as LSU's. No one has run on LSU?s starters and I doubt Cobbs and crew will be any different. I?m sure Arky will put some points up, but I don?t see how. My main take on Arkansas this year has been that they are big, not good. Their stats are skewed by a few out of conference games and that ridiculous Kentucky game. I?d guess single digits, but maybe a little more on the Arkansas scoreboard.
So where does all of this vague hand waving lead? I?d guess we?re looking at an LSU victory by about 2 TDs. Since I only have to give up 9?, I think LSU is the pick here.
The LSU offense has seen this defense before. Florida, South Caroline and Alabama all bring the same mix of fairly good rush defense with fairly bad (to be generous in Bama?s case) pass defense. I normally wouldn?t expect any different performance from LSU in this game, but there?s a problem. LSU tends to pass less when facing better rushing defenses. I call this the Pat Hill Syndrome (PHS). When coaches suffering from PHS get it in their heads that they are going to run the ball in a game (often this decision was made the previous spring), NOTHING is going to change their minds. If Nick has been on his medication, I think Mauck should be able to put plenty of points on the board through the air until those big old boys in red start getting real tired and the running game can take control. I?d look for a couple of passing TDs and an INT from Mauck, and 40-50 rushes for a couple of hundred yards. In the past, this has been worth around 20 to 27 points and I?m looking for the same here. If the PHS is out of control, I still think they can hang 17-20.
To a small extent, Nutt exhibits PHS as well, but they run the ball SO MUCH, I don?t think that the relatively mild negative correlation (pass attempts with average defensive rushing yards allowed per game) means anything. The problem Arkansas has is that they haven't shown anything when their running game isn't working, and by God, LSU has shown that they can shut a RB down,and they haven't faced a run defense anywhere near as good as LSU's. No one has run on LSU?s starters and I doubt Cobbs and crew will be any different. I?m sure Arky will put some points up, but I don?t see how. My main take on Arkansas this year has been that they are big, not good. Their stats are skewed by a few out of conference games and that ridiculous Kentucky game. I?d guess single digits, but maybe a little more on the Arkansas scoreboard.
So where does all of this vague hand waving lead? I?d guess we?re looking at an LSU victory by about 2 TDs. Since I only have to give up 9?, I think LSU is the pick here.
