AT&T Championship

Stanley

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Jul 26, 1999
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Outright plays (total stake per play: 2pts)

Jay Haas to win 5.15/1 @ The Greek
Uncomfortably short price, but it is difficult to get away from Haas this week. He won the rain-shortened event last week by five shots over just two rounds and was still going away from the field when play was suspended and the final round eventually cancelled. He has won his last three Champions Tour events in Texas and did manage to win in back-to-back weeks in April, so winning last week should not be an issue. He even managed to win his next Champions Tour event as well, though that was a few weeks later. And there is his history with Oak Hills. "I just feel like I'm going to shoot a good round when I come out here," he said after winning last year's SBC Championship on this course. It was the first time that he had played the course on this Tour, but it was also the scene of his 1993 Texas Open triumph on the PGA Tour. A short price, but one that I can't resist this week!

Tom Purtzer to win 28/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Bet365 and Coral
Purtzer finished 2nd behind Haas last year, closing with a final round 63. Add that to the fact that he finished behind Haas last week, also in Texas, and there is a hope that history will repeat itself once more (if not being too greedy and hoping their positions are revered). In fact, there has been an unusual consistency in Purtzer's game recently with his worst finish in his last nine events being 23rd and six of those nine finishes being 7th or better. In terms of scoring, eight of his last ten rounds have been in the 60s. Such consistency is unusual for Purtzer, but if he can maintain it for one more week, he could once again shoot some very low scores around Oak Hills.

R.W. Eaks to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
Yet to win a Tour event, but he has come close many times, including the Greater Hickory Classic earlier this month when he lost a playoff to a Andy Bean. His poor performance the following week was to be expected, but he rebounded well last week to earn his third top-10 finish in his last four events. That top-10 finish in Texas last week can also be added to his 4th place finish on this course last year to show that he does play well in this area. 50s seems a fair price on that basis.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (2pts unless stated):

Loren Roberts to beat Chip Beck -137 @ Expekt [4pts]
Backing Roberts in Texas given his record in that State - e.g. 1st and 2nd in the Texas Open on the PGA Tour within the last four years - and Beck's record of failing to reach the weekend in each of his last 11 PGA Tour starts in Texas and then his worst finish on the Champions Tour to date last week. Roberts has yet to finish behind Beck in any event since January 2000 and I very much doubt that he will do so this week.

John Jacobs to beat Lanny Wadkins -135 @ Five Dimes
Wadkins has been replaced by Nick Faldo as CBS' lead analyst for 2007 and while it may cause him to play more events, as he has done in the last couple of months, he will struggle to be anywhere near the player that he was on this Tour .. just too many injuries. And that was been shown with his best finish in the last three months being just 54th. He has finished behind Jacobs in four of their last five common events and should do the same again this week.

Eduardo Romero to beat Tom Kite -120 @ Expekt
Kite has a good record in this event and is playing in his home State, but he is fully aware that he is 0-for-103 in Texas. And last week he finished in 66th place, so was never going to end his drought. He has now shot over 70 in each of his last five rounds and looks a very different player from the one who had seven consecutive top-10 finishes in the summer. It is quite the reverse with Romero who has a 5-0-1 h2h record against Kite over the last six months and in Romero's own words, "I feel very comfortable, like I can win every week." That's something Kite doesn't feel when at home!
 

Stanley

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Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -6.00pts

Haas 7th
Purtzer 20th
Eaks 7th

I think I preferred the last two weeks when the picks were awful. Haas started the day in 3rd place and 2nd-favourite, Purtzer climbed to 2nd place after 11 holes on Sunday, but was 3-over-par thereafter and Eaks did have the lead at the start of the back nine, but came home in 38 to not even finish in the place money.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; -5.88pts

Roberts/Beck LOST by 3
Jacobs/Wadkins WON by 3
Romero/Kite LOST by 3

Yet another set of poor results.

Champions Tour ytd
Outrights: 13-59; -34.59pts
Matchups: 31-35; -36.74pts
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Jul 13, 1999
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One of baddest beats I've seen in while Stan.

For some reason ole Murphy has had a year long vendetta against you. Can't say I've remotely seen such a string of bad bounces be so pronounced over such a time period. It defies logic--
 
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