AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Davis Love to win 25/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods
Hopefully Mickelson will suffer a minor letdown after winning in front of his home crowd last week and with defending champions having a particularly poor record in this event since 1990, this could be a good week to avoid the leading two players. If so, that could certainly open up this event for players such as these selections. Love has cut back his schedule this year, but really enjoys playing in this event, winning it in 2001 and 2003. With five wins at another seaside location, Hilton Head, he is a player who could easily win this week, particularly as he shot 61 in the 3rd round of the Bob Hope two weeks ago. Much too unpredictable for match bets, but rather more profitable for these types of play.

Jim Furyk to win 25/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes, GolfingGods and BetFred
In contrast to Love, who is a links specialist, Furyk can certainly be described as a pro-am specialist as he has won three such events in Las Vegas. With a record of three top-5 finishes in his last six visits, he does fare well in this event as well and after a strong performance in the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic two weeks ago, he looks well set for another strong week at Pebble Beach.

Luke Donald to win 33/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods
Not a concern that he missed the cut last week as he had done so in Scottsdale last year, so thankful that it probably raised his odds this week. Considering that he should have won the Buick Invitational on his previous start when he had been coasting to victory until an errant approach shot on the 14th hole and that he lead this event after 36 holes and was still in 3rd place with one round to play last year, he really shouldn't be 33/1.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

AOberholser 0.5u ew 66-1
TClark 1u ew 33-1

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a couple place only @ GG-top 5

Weir 8.00
MaGee 21.00

Weir been playing awful but many his wins/top 5's have been sandwiched cuts in pasts.

Magee has played well here in past has has played some of his best golf this year after medical absence.

 

[veride]

6. AT&T PEBBLE BEACH NATIONAL PRO-AM

6. AT&T PEBBLE BEACH NATIONAL PRO-AM

Win Only :

Jim Furyk --> 25/1 Ladbrokes
Jerry Kelly --> 36,5/1 Unibet
K.J. Choi --> 40/1 Sportingbet
Jesper Parnevik --> 66/1 Ladbrokes
Kevin Sutherland --> 100/1 Unibet

Place Only (1-5) :

Andrew Magee --> 19/1 Unibet
Kevin Sutherland --> 19/1 Expekt

 

[veride]

Win Only :

Tom Pernice Jr. --> 80/1 Sportingbet

Place Only (1-5) :

Tom Pernice Jr. --> 16/1 Expekt

Jim Furyk over Davis Love III --> -115 Expekt
Fred Couples over Chris Riley --> -115 Expekt

 

[Whalers Rule]

Luke Donald to win 28-1

Agree with Stanley on Donald

Scott Simpson 500-1 1/4 unit e.w.

No real reason just thoughts of Johnny Miller winning a few years ago over Tom Watson when both were Simpson's age and he looks to be playing a little better lately.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a couple 72 holes @ Oly
Sutherland -125 over Micheel
Furyk -110 over Howell

 

[redsfan]

Andrew Magee for me - 100-1 generally


Veride - just out of interest, why didn't you back Pernice e/w at Sportingbet? - 20-1 your place part instead of 16's

 

[Another Steve]

Pebble Beach Plays

Pebble Beach Plays

Vijay Singh WINS PEBBLE BEACH +4.00

Going to take this Play for 3 Units. Believe he's ready to start his run. This leads me to one of my MatchUps

Vijay Singh OV/Phil Mickelson-1.45 2 Units

Think Vijay will stay close to the top of the Board. Agree with Stanley pick of Luke so I went with this MatchUp

Luke Donald OV/Charles Howell I-1.20 2 Units

Parnavik started slow last week and finished strong, I know this because I went against him. He finished 7th last year so my last MatchUp Play is:

Jesper Parnevik OV/Chris Riley-1.25 2 Units

YTD MatchUp 4-3

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts):

Jerry Kelly to beat Darren Clarke +110 @ Five Dimes
Clarke's home worries aside, he has finished behind Kelly in ten of their last eleven common PGA Tour events. Having played at Pebble Beach only once before - the 2000 U.S. Open when he finished behind Kelly - and never on the other courses, this is a tall ask to beat a pro-am veteran who has finished 11th and 8th in his last two events.

Fred Couples to beat Jesper Parnevik +100 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Couples is another pro-am veteran who seems to always makes the cut in these types of events and that is something that Parnevik does not do enough. With Couples having finished ahead of Parnevik in their two common events this year, I'll certainly take these odds.
(also available at Carib and GolfingGods)

Vijay Singh to beat Phil Mickelson -118 @ BetInternet
Everyone else makes Vijay a much stronger favourite and so do I. In the last six months, Mickelson has finished ahead of Singh only once and that was last week and while Mickelson won this event in 1998, he has finished behind Singh in each of the previous six years, plus the U.S. Open which was held at Pebble Beach in 2000. Throw in an emotional letdown from winning in front of his home crowd last week and Mickelson should struggle to end his losing run to the World No.1 at Pebble Beach.
(available widely)

 

[phar lap]

Round 1 18 hole Spread bets

1. O'Meara / McGinley 0 - 3 at SportingIndex
Sell 1 unit at 0 to be with McGinley.

2. Sutherland / Mattiace 4 - 7 at SportingIndex.
Buy 1 unit at 7 to be with Sutherland

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

This place getting popular>26 quests viewing--I wonder where they come from
Prop people getting better with their lines--Days of soup there bout over I believe

1st rd
Funk +110 over Parney
Howell -110 over Donald

Taking the Pebble Beach crew vs the Spyglass in projected calm conditions of anticipated 5mph breeze. The wind is the teeth of PB and Spyglass is quite a bit tougher in these conditions--Was a little hestitant on Funk as he has not played here in a while but did OK when he did and played well in pro am @ the Hope. Also not much rain here of late and greens at SG should be firm which is not complimentory for Parneys ball flight. If weather doesn't change before tee off I believe these to be pretty solid.

 

[lostinamerica]

Two recurrent themes from early last year that had legs after first emerging included: (1) top contenders and those on the fringes of contention doing an exceptional job of of getting right back in contention after going close the prior week; and (2) the emergence of players working with Butch Harmon.

Two recurrent themes from early this year: (1) The Big Boys are staking an early claim for banner seasons; and (2) Mickelson and McCarron last week are only the latest examples of players coming up big in spots that owe them something from a fairly recent edition.


OUTRIGHTS:

Arron Oberholser(66/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - Rebounded nicely after the worst of it in the first group off on Thursday in Phoenix.

Tim Herron(28/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - "He looks Mar-ve-lous."

Phillip Price(150/1) e.w @ Bet365
- - Can easily see a lovely fit with the Monterey clambake.

Craig Stadler(100/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - If Kevin can do anything, the father-son pairing has real possibilities of the old man responding as though the darned hole looks as big as a coffee can, and then winning on Sunday at Pebble is not too far-fetched.



MATCHUPS:

Clark(-110) over Clarke (Tournament) @ 5dimes

Choi(-110) over Westwood (Tournament) @ 5dimes


GL

 

[Another Steve]

It's never this grim this early!!

 

[phar lap]

Round 1 spread results.

1. O'Meara and McGinley finished square. No result here.

2. Sutherland beat Mattiace by 6 strokes. Profit of 21 units.

Profit on day of 21 units.

 

[Whalers Rule]

Adding in running at bet365

Tim Clark 50-1 e.w. top 4 2 units e.w.

I love this play he shot -5, two shots out of second , in good form hope Mickelson slows down but top 4 has real good chance.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st rd results 2-0
Funk +110 over Parney by 4
Howell -110 over Donald by 6

Tough to find much out there today--every Euro has same match same lines--the U.S. books tightening considerably--haven't found a 1st or 2nd rd wager I deem bettable @ 5 dimes

Got one I will look at @ Pinn
Sabbitini -104 over Couples

Cool drizzle expected in am and Couples has 8:20 Tee--possibilty of the ole back tightening--additional and bigger reason is he is paired with Hackin David Duval who shouldn't instill a lot of positive Karma and will be lots of standing and waiting while trying to locate Duvals and the amatuers ball.--and speaking of amateurs appears they must have Duval paired with one in match today (Owen Barton) and getting 1/2 shot from the amatuer in props today.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd was a push
Sabbitini -104 over Couples tied @ -1
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
3rd rd a few props
Birdies are better
Couples -105 (+1/2) over Gamez @ WW
Gamez -105 over Couples @ HH
I'll risk .05 for a win/push possibilty

2 against 1--taking the pair on all
Leman/T Clark -135 over Love
Riley/D Clarke -125 over Weir
Kelly/Couples -135 over Howell

no weak sisters in the pairs--drizzle coming down-won't be no L,C &P as stipulated before tourney,leaving lots to breaks--looking for 2 out the 3.

and a match
C Stadler over K Stadler 1.66 what ever that equates to @ SIA
Been doing a rd by rd let it ride parlay on this duo with Craig covering each day--I like his chances at spyglass the best.Hope Murphy took the day off.

 

[Stanley]

Further outright play (total stake: 1.5pts):

Graeme McDowell to win 33/1 e.w. (without Mickelson) @ Stan James
Course rotation is very important at this stage of the event and it is rather surprising that it is not Poppy Hills that has played the easiest so far. It has been Pebble Beach by some distance on both days and that is the venue for McDowell's 3rd round. It is also the venue for the 4th round, so there will also be benefit from that continuity as well. There is no concern about him being uncomfortable playing on this Tour as he was a student at the University of Birmingham, Alabama where he was ranked the #1 player in the United States, winning six of NCAA twelve tournaments and breaking the scoring records set by Tiger Woods and then Luke Donald by almost a full stroke, and he has played extremely well from tee-to-green on the two hardest courses so far. He will need that accuracy to find the very small Pebble Beach greens, but they have been giving up a lot of birdies and he should make up a lot of ground on 2nd place, Mike Weir, today. He is only four shots away from leading this category, these look good odds. Also the same price at Victor Chandler but with less favourable place terms.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks for heads up on the wo/mick

Since both Weir and Magee are in contention I'll throw in an extra w/o Mick @ St James
Purdy E/W @ 66/1
Playing Poppyhills today and if wind gets up at PB tomorrow should be right at home.He finshed there in 20mph wind last year with a 72 with a 17th placing--so will give him a look at these odds and his current position.