AT&T Pebble Beach
- Thread starter phar.lap
- Start date
Outright plays (total stake play: 1pt)
Mike Weir to win 22/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
Not exactly original given that he has finished in the top-5 in each of the last four years in this event, but it should also be remembered that he is more generally a pro-am specialist rather than an event specialist. He won the 2003 Bob Hope Chrysler Classic and that started a run of six top-5 finishes in his last ten pro-am events. By any mark, that should point to value at 22/1. He has introduced some swing changes over the off-season and so it may take time for his desired consistency to materialise, but he shot no worse than 70 in every round last week and played particularly well on Sunday to be 6-under-par for the round apart from a double-bogey on the 17th hole. If he plays as well again this week, he should record his fifth consecutive top-5 finish in this event.
Nick Watney to win 50/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Victor Chandler and BlueSq
The odds are certainly tumbling each week on this Californian, but as I price him at 40/1 there still remains some value left for one more week. For all that he is capable of recording a high proportion of top-10 finishes (for this stage in his career), as pointed out last week, his form in pro-ams is just as noteworthy. Not only did he finish 7th last year (and had been 3rd, 6th and 4th at the end of the first three rounds), but he finished 13th in the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic three weeks ago, 5th in the FUNAI Classic in October and had he shot no worse than 68 in the 2nd round of last year's Bob Hope Chrysler Classic (as he did in his other rounds in the first four days), he would have finished in the top-5 that week as well. His collegiate record suggests that he will seize his opportunity to win when it fully materialises, but for now, the place odds are attractive enough.
Rory Sabbatini to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James
For such a fast player, Sabbatini is an unlikely pro-am specialist. However, when he finished 2nd in this event last year, it was the THIRD time that he had been runner-up in a pro-am this decade. And for comparison with Weir, he has finished in the top-10 six times in his last eleven pro-am events. Not quite as high a ratio and top-10 rather than top-5, but he is available at triple the odds. Consistency has never been one of Sabbatini's strengths so his recent form is not a concern, though it should be helpful that, like Weir, he was six-under-par for his round on Sunday, bar the 17th hole, so should come into this event in good confidence. And 66/1 is certainly much too high.
Mike Weir to win 22/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
Not exactly original given that he has finished in the top-5 in each of the last four years in this event, but it should also be remembered that he is more generally a pro-am specialist rather than an event specialist. He won the 2003 Bob Hope Chrysler Classic and that started a run of six top-5 finishes in his last ten pro-am events. By any mark, that should point to value at 22/1. He has introduced some swing changes over the off-season and so it may take time for his desired consistency to materialise, but he shot no worse than 70 in every round last week and played particularly well on Sunday to be 6-under-par for the round apart from a double-bogey on the 17th hole. If he plays as well again this week, he should record his fifth consecutive top-5 finish in this event.
Nick Watney to win 50/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Victor Chandler and BlueSq
The odds are certainly tumbling each week on this Californian, but as I price him at 40/1 there still remains some value left for one more week. For all that he is capable of recording a high proportion of top-10 finishes (for this stage in his career), as pointed out last week, his form in pro-ams is just as noteworthy. Not only did he finish 7th last year (and had been 3rd, 6th and 4th at the end of the first three rounds), but he finished 13th in the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic three weeks ago, 5th in the FUNAI Classic in October and had he shot no worse than 68 in the 2nd round of last year's Bob Hope Chrysler Classic (as he did in his other rounds in the first four days), he would have finished in the top-5 that week as well. His collegiate record suggests that he will seize his opportunity to win when it fully materialises, but for now, the place odds are attractive enough.
Rory Sabbatini to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James
For such a fast player, Sabbatini is an unlikely pro-am specialist. However, when he finished 2nd in this event last year, it was the THIRD time that he had been runner-up in a pro-am this decade. And for comparison with Weir, he has finished in the top-10 six times in his last eleven pro-am events. Not quite as high a ratio and top-10 rather than top-5, but he is available at triple the odds. Consistency has never been one of Sabbatini's strengths so his recent form is not a concern, though it should be helpful that, like Weir, he was six-under-par for his round on Sunday, bar the 17th hole, so should come into this event in good confidence. And 66/1 is certainly much too high.
top 5
Matteson 10.50 @ Oly
Sabb 10/1 Cbet
Going to give Matteson another shot despite diminishing odds--was counting top 10 money last week until he started back 9 with double/double and still finshed 14th.
72 hole @ Expekt
Furyk -121 over Mick
Thu 07-02-08 16:00 Furyk Jim - Mickelson Phil
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, 72 holes
US PGA Tour 1 -121
a little on 5 dimes top 5-- around 1/6 of win--a rip
Oly has best bang for buck on top 5.
Matteson 10.50 @ Oly
Sabb 10/1 Cbet
Going to give Matteson another shot despite diminishing odds--was counting top 10 money last week until he started back 9 with double/double and still finshed 14th.
72 hole @ Expekt
Furyk -121 over Mick
Thu 07-02-08 16:00 Furyk Jim - Mickelson Phil
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, 72 holes
US PGA Tour 1 -121
a little on 5 dimes top 5-- around 1/6 of win--a rip
Oly has best bang for buck on top 5.
Love the Matteson nod, Wayne. My main guy this season, along the lines of Oberholser last year. Will take a stab at these this weekend.
All at The Greek.
To Win:
T. Matteson +4050
C. Warren +8550
J.J. Henry +8550
Matchups:
Matteson -110 over Choi
Warren -110 over Purdy
DiMarco +100 over Love
Good luck, all.
All at The Greek.
To Win:
T. Matteson +4050
C. Warren +8550
J.J. Henry +8550
Matchups:
Matteson -110 over Choi
Warren -110 over Purdy
DiMarco +100 over Love
Good luck, all.
72 hole scoring prop
over 271.5 -115 @ HW
1st
Harrington +100 over Donald
Don't like Paddrig being 1st timer but despite Donalds 7th place finish last year- he didn't get there by PB course where he shot even and 2 over. Padrig will have 5 par 5's at PH course.
note: found several course mismatches but weather dictates which are easiest
-- and tough to gauge by tomorrows forecast.
Used to be saying winner path was through best score on Spyglass
(05-mick 62- 04 Singh 68--03 Love 67--02-Gogel-67 ect )
-but not so anymore--SG dropped way down to # 31 on course difficulties last year and actually played easiest
of the 3--but had rare week on coast with wind never getting over 10mph any day.
over 271.5 -115 @ HW
1st
Harrington +100 over Donald
Don't like Paddrig being 1st timer but despite Donalds 7th place finish last year- he didn't get there by PB course where he shot even and 2 over. Padrig will have 5 par 5's at PH course.
note: found several course mismatches but weather dictates which are easiest
-- and tough to gauge by tomorrows forecast.
Used to be saying winner path was through best score on Spyglass
(05-mick 62- 04 Singh 68--03 Love 67--02-Gogel-67 ect )
-but not so anymore--SG dropped way down to # 31 on course difficulties last year and actually played easiest
of the 3--but had rare week on coast with wind never getting over 10mph any day.
SportingOdds
Event AT+T Pebble Beach
Market Outright Winner
Selection Paul McGinley
Odds 125/1
EW terms 1/5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Event AT+T Pebble Beach
Market Outright Winner
Selection Brian Davis
Odds 200/1
EW terms 1/5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Event AT+T Pebble Beach
Market Outright Winner
Selection Paul McGinley
Odds 125/1
EW terms 1/5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Event AT+T Pebble Beach
Market Outright Winner
Selection Brian Davis
Odds 200/1
EW terms 1/5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
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Love to Watch this Tourney, some day I'll Play there...
Let's keep the Poor Phil Train going
M WEIR OV/P MICKELSON +1.15
Like Mike and Jim to Win Here
J FURYK wins Match +10.00
M WEIR wins Match +22.00
Good Luck to all
Let's keep the Poor Phil Train going
M WEIR OV/P MICKELSON +1.15
Like Mike and Jim to Win Here
J FURYK wins Match +10.00
M WEIR wins Match +22.00
Good Luck to all
Outrights:
Lee Janzen (+15250) e.w. @ thegreek
- - In my stable last week; I enjoyed our time together and the places he took me.
Nick Watney(40/1) e.w. generally
- - I had Oberholser(33/1) last year, and both 3 weeks before the event and 1 year later, I did rate it and would continue to rate it as one of my 15 strongest plays in the 28/1 to 40/1 range in the last 5 years - one that comes around about 3 times a year at the most. Emphatically, this play is not in that league, and in fact has to rate as one of the top 15 bandwagons to be avoided in the 40/1 range in the last 5 years. But, a comer that comes on best in California has one big thing right in his profile for this event; and I had him in Palm Springs, and his performance there got him marked up for this event, with nothing discouraging intervening, so let's roll.
Rory Sabbatini(50/1) e.w. generally
- - Anticipating (but not really sensing) that he's moving toward going close soon, more so than he's on a backsliding roll, so this moment and this price appeal.
Vijay Singh(9/1) e.w. generally
- - He played great and looked peerless against the Mercedes field, and I've been surprised by the extent to which he's been spinning his wheels since. But reading the tea leaves from last week has me unable to rate this saver as any less wise than my similar saver on Jaidee in Malaysia.
Paul McGinley(100/1) e.w. generally
- - Added on as my best value for catching a mudder for the moment.
GL
Lee Janzen (+15250) e.w. @ thegreek
- - In my stable last week; I enjoyed our time together and the places he took me.
Nick Watney(40/1) e.w. generally
- - I had Oberholser(33/1) last year, and both 3 weeks before the event and 1 year later, I did rate it and would continue to rate it as one of my 15 strongest plays in the 28/1 to 40/1 range in the last 5 years - one that comes around about 3 times a year at the most. Emphatically, this play is not in that league, and in fact has to rate as one of the top 15 bandwagons to be avoided in the 40/1 range in the last 5 years. But, a comer that comes on best in California has one big thing right in his profile for this event; and I had him in Palm Springs, and his performance there got him marked up for this event, with nothing discouraging intervening, so let's roll.
Rory Sabbatini(50/1) e.w. generally
- - Anticipating (but not really sensing) that he's moving toward going close soon, more so than he's on a backsliding roll, so this moment and this price appeal.
Vijay Singh(9/1) e.w. generally
- - He played great and looked peerless against the Mercedes field, and I've been surprised by the extent to which he's been spinning his wheels since. But reading the tea leaves from last week has me unable to rate this saver as any less wise than my similar saver on Jaidee in Malaysia.
Paul McGinley(100/1) e.w. generally
- - Added on as my best value for catching a mudder for the moment.
GL
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was over in Dubai last week and old choker looked like he was playing some good golf from the bits i saw of him, one to definately watch over the next few weeks.
- Feb 26, 2001
- 13,593
- 164
- 63
Post R1
Mickelson win only +350 (Greek)
Someone grabbed it when it was +400-something seconds before I did. I still like +350. I did also did a win only on Watney before R1 just because everyone and their brother was on him. Would have been upset to have been left out. So i'll be pulling for Watney over Mickelson in a playoff?? :shrug:
Mickelson win only +350 (Greek)
Someone grabbed it when it was +400-something seconds before I did. I still like +350. I did also did a win only on Watney before R1 just because everyone and their brother was on him. Would have been upset to have been left out. So i'll be pulling for Watney over Mickelson in a playoff?? :shrug:
- Nov 7, 2004
- 5,619
- 31
- 0
- 53
2 out of 3.....
Joe really struggled comming home. Thought he would do something this week.
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