Atlanta 500

[Looselugs]

to win

Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12-1

Jr will be solid today as long as he can finish. He`ll be making the outside line work for him today.He was by far the best in practice.

matchups

Dale Earnhardt Jr over Jeff Gordon -140 loss
Kurt Busch over Ryan Newman -125 winner


gl
lugs

 

[Looselugs]

couple more,

Denny Hamlin over Brian Vickers -120 winner
Robby Gordon over David Gilliland -105 winner


gl
lugs

 

[Looselugs]

had some free time and checked out some other books and found four that had Harvick at 25-1 :scared them damn good odds for a top 5 car today.

 

[homedog]

lugs,

You say that Jr was by far the best in practice but based on the speed charts, Edwards was by far the best. I didn't get to watch practice. What did you see that makes you believe Jr was the best?

Thanks.

 

[Looselugs]

glad you ask homedog,

Edwards may have the fastest one lap but Jr should run him down in the long runs.

1st practice speeds

Edwards turned 28 laps average speed 174.861
Earnhardt turned24 laps average speed 176.530

2nd practice speeds

Edwards turned 32 laps average speed 174.471
Earnhardt turned 25 laps average speed 176.510

I was watching his lap times yesterday and after 15 to 20 laps his speeds dont fall as much near as anyone elses.He was running the very top of the track no one else was running up there.I think its the fastest part of the track only problem is you don`t want to make a mistake being that close to the wall.


but what do I know :shrug:

 

[homedog]

Thanks.

 

[EVAUSE]

Atlanta gets back to track configurations that Carl Edwards and Kyle B dominated before the chase started. Wouldn't bet against Edwards and Biffle today(Roush). Jr makes to many mental mistakes to put money on for me. Not once this year has he been able to give info to make the car better, always gets worse the longer the weekend goes.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Thanks for the dialogue

 

[Looselugs]

Thanks for the dialogue

:mj07:

 

[EVAUSE]

Just as predicted. Wish Jr could get it togeather over there.

 

[TexasBC6]

:mj07:

Ummm, I guess I missed something. What's so funny?

 

[grinin]

Sorry I did not get by here b4 the race.

One problem with using Avg. lap times is that the averages are often skewed by various factors:

1. Some guys use only a single set of tires while others use two and sometimes more if they are scuffing them

2. If there is a caution while your guy is practicing that will slow down that lap enough to throw off their entire average

3. If the team was just "experimenting" for part of practice

4. Weather conditions

Thus the NASCAR Leaderboard and various other services which show the Avg times are often worthless unless you know everything else that is going on. However if someone can get me 5 or 10 lap averages I would be excstatic!


In the Junior vs. Edwards situation. I am 95% sure that Junior (and most of the other Hendrick drivers) used two sets of tires each practice and Carl used only one. This makes a huge difference in your avg. at a track like Atlanta where there is a big falloff in lap times from new tires to old.

 

[Looselugs]

Sorry I did not get by here b4 the race.

One problem with using Avg. lap times is that the averages are often skewed by various factors:

1. Some guys use only a single set of tires while others use two and sometimes more if they are scuffing them

2. If there is a caution while your guy is practicing that will slow down that lap enough to throw off their entire average

3. If the team was just "experimenting" for part of practice

4. Weather conditions

Thus the NASCAR Leaderboard and various other services which show the Avg times are often worthless unless you know everything else that is going on. However if someone can get me 5 or 10 lap averages I would be excstatic!


In the Junior vs. Edwards situation. I am 95% sure that Junior (and most of the other Hendrick drivers) used two sets of tires each practice and Carl used only one. This makes a huge difference in your avg. at a track like Atlanta where there is a big falloff in lap times from new tires to old.

So if the time sheets are worthless.How do you handicapp these races?

 

[grinin]

Time sheets are not worthless. But Avg times alone often are. As in everything in life, the reward goes to those who can recognize the difference.

For a handicapping baseline, I use past performance on similar track types, weighted by similarity to the track being raced on this week, building in a decay factor based on data age.

Then, I look at the time sheets. The majority of the time I do not have enough data to determine any abnormalities, so I use them as is. I weight the practices and qualifying, then factor them into my baseline. However, there are often pretty big clues or glaring inconsistencies in practice results, which when noted, can pay off handsomely. I am sure there are other folks who get better data (the kind the media or the teams get (including 5-10 lap averages)) and can therefore see an even clearer picture. If anyone has access to that type of information, I wouldn't mind sharing some investment tips!