Atlanta

[Grama]

Going to the race if it doesn't rain. looking to have a lot of action on the race, so starting the process early.

Always good there: junior, stewart, gordon

Can Busch rebound?
Is Jimmie Johnson more fired up than ever?
Can Junior actually win?

Big Tease - what do you think?

 

[TheShrimp]

Im' still wearing my rookie stripe around here, but...

Here's a few I like right now.

My man Ricky Craven. 35-1. Came in fifth there last year (but 21st in the NAPA 500) and really ran well at Daytona and The Rock this year. He's a "no name" but he's got the best Pontiac. Maybe a good "place bet" instead of winning considering his lack of support on the track.

But really, after how they ran at the longer tracks at Daytona and Vegas, I think its hard to go against a Chevy.

Bobby Labonte 10-1. Has won several races at AMS.

Michael Waltrip. Hard to believe he's leading the points, has 2 great finishes this year and is 30-1 right now. He took an 11th there at the NAPA in October and was out because of his engine at last years MBNA. [maybe a good place bet] Hopefully he won't do donuts in the infield if he comes in 3rd again.

And, I got to put out Junior at 10-1. He probably has at least as good a shot as Stewart at 8-1 or Busch at 7-1.

If I had to take a couple of the big guys out, it would be Busch and Gordon. Gordon's certanily got a good shot, but if I had to stay away from a guy it would be him. The 8-1 just seems a little short to me for how he's performed this year. He really faded after leading early on Sunday. I don't think he's the force he used to be but he's still got short odds. I'd take Busch out just because he's not in a Chevy. He was fading in Vegas before he got into the "Skinner wreck".

I'd like Ryan Newman if I could find 15-1 somewhere. He's 10-1 at SIA right now. He really put on a great charge at Vegas and is driving well and aggressively.

 

[howdy]

Grama,
Being a Ga. person you kjnow as well as I do that having a race here without rain is like having wind that does not blow
I will keep my fingers crossed for you cause it will be a great race to be at.

I am not bigtease but here is my 2 cents worth

Can Busch rebound? certainly - win... good chance, great driver, great pit stops and great fuel mileage = good shot at winning

Is Jimmie Johnson more fired up than ever? always is but I look for motor trouble in this race. They are looking for more power and this race can take a toll on the motor. If they try a little to much they could cost themselves the race.


Can Junior actually win? not enough patience for this run, will probably cause something to happen that will take him out of the front running.

J Gordon - has a lot fo problems to straighten out before he becomes a viable play.

Stewart - Always has a shot (see Busch).


Chevys should have an advantage in qualifying if NASCAR does not make some changes this week (probably will not). The advantaqe will not translate into a race time advantage since this track will not depend on downforce during the race as much as Vagas.
They will be able to run anywhere they want and most will be running the high groove which does not put as much emphasis on the downforce.


Shrimp,
B Labonte has an excellent shot here!
Newman has a great shot no matter what the odds.
Waltrip :nono: :nono: :nono:
Craven - gotta love your loyality and he can run good here just not a win.


Playing matchups:
Atlanta has some good long green flag runs so look for teams that get good fuel mileage and has great pit stops.

Silly mistakes in the pits will take a car out of this race FAST!


Of course if it rains you can throw all this out the window!


Good Luck and have fun at the race!

 

[Myron]

Atlanta - Qualifying Matchups

Atlanta - Qualifying Matchups

I like 3 matchups:

1- Mark Martin +110 over Stewart. Stewart qualified well in the past but for some reason his car just doesn't seem as fast as last year in qualifying sessions. I guess the Pontiacs had more horsepower than his Chev. Meanwhile Rousch cars are burning up the track every time out in both races and qualifying.

2- Ricky Rudd Even over Robby Gordon. Gordon struggles at this track in qualifying while Sadler (now Rudd's car) always did well. Plus Rudd is a better qualifier than Sadler ever was.

3- Dale Jarrett +120 over Dale Earnhardt Jr. Strictly a value play. Jarrett has 3 poles at Atlanta and was exceptionally fast in qualifying at all the faster tracks last year (California, Michigan, Charlotte, Atlanta etc.).

 

[Grama]

thanks for replying guys-

i think we have to bet on the following to win:
b. labonte - loves the track and one of the best in atlanta if not the best
busch- the kid's on fire, won last year

possible long shot - nadeau, nemecheck

of course, i think i may place a little cheddar on gordon, marlin, junior and stewart to finish top 3 (really going out on a limb here huh? )

shrimp - love craven too, but he's not looking too hot. hopefully he can turn it around. we need to watch qualifying and happy hour before we bet on him. one thing though, long odds sure are attractive

agree with howdy about waltrip

gordon- i hate him, and he shouldn't get hot until later in the season

we should get a good feel after qualifying

 

[howdy]

Grama,
Save your dough and drop Nemechek! Use it to buy one of those expensive beers during the race. He will not win here!

The same cannot be said about Nadeau! In fact a couple years ago he was winning in Atl and ran out of fuel with one or two laps left.
I do not think Gordon (either one) will win this week and I dont think they have the bugs worked out of Juniors team/car/driver yet. In fact Junior gets my vote for the best driver with the most stupid problems.

 

[TheShrimp]

Myron -- Here's a snippet of an interview with Stewart's crew chief at nascar.com. Good to hear for the Mark Martin bet.


Tony talks about how bad a qualifier he is. First of all, is that true, and second, is there anything you can do chassis-wise to help him improve?

We just don't always seem to pick up like other people do. I just don't think he gets excited for it like he does the drop of the green flag on a race. That's all part of it. Something you're not comfortable with or something you don't like to do, you're not going to be as good as others. We worked just has hard on our qualifying stuff as we do our race, or as hard as anybody else does. We're an average qualifying team.


Their Marty Smith also picked Nadeau, and a couple of guys like B. Labonte.

Thanks, Howdy, for the info on the downforces.

 

[sandwedge]

i don't really think nemechek will win either, but is he is driving the #25 which is the car nadeau ran so well in here, and neme drove it to a second place finish in the oct 2002 atlanta race so he does have some shot of winning. nemechek though, it just seems something always happens to the guy to take him out of contention.

 

[howdy]

sandwedge,

"nemechek though, it just seems something always happens to the guy to take him out of contention."

I could not have said it better! He is in the running for the "being in the wrong place at the wrong time" award

 

[Grama]

Bets so far...

B. Labonte 10-1 1 unit
R. Newman 12-1 0.5 unit

More to come. I'll end up betting more on bobby but looking for the best odds.

 

[Grama]

B. Labonte 8-1 5 units (total of 6)
J. Gordon 11-1 3 units
Field 25-1 1 unit
Junior 12-1 4 units
:weed:

 

[Grama]

Final Bets for Atlanta. Leave at 6 am, supposed to be nice tomorrow.

B. Labonte 8 units (1 at 10-1, 5 at 8-1, 2 at 9-1)
J. Gordon 5 units 11-1
D. Earnhardt, Jr. 4 units 12-1
Field 1 unit 25-1
R. Newman 0.5 unit 12-1
R. Craven 1 unit Top 3 7-1

B. Elliott top Dodge 0.5 unit 3.5-1

R. Wallace over M. Kenseth 1 unit +110
J. Nemechek over J. Nadeau 0.5 unit -115
R. Craven over D. Blaney 1 unit +100
J. Mayfield over W. Burton 0.5 unit +100

Let's go 18 :firing:

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

GL Grama!

 

[Grama]

Last minute got the feeling bets, (it could just be beer farts)

T. Stewart over J. Johnson 1 unit -140
T. Stewart to win 2.5 units +600

Thanks TTM$.

Good Luck all, 8 or 18, see you at victory lane :weed: :weed: :weed:

 

[sandwedge]

nemechek would have been right there without the 23 second pitstop and having to re-pit for the loose lug nut. i'm beginning to feel sorry for the guy

 

[Grama]

18 wins! :spotting: :spotting: :weed: :spotting: :Yep:

Math is fuzzy. will check later about overall win but won 68 units on Labonte. Race was crazy, but man was that fun :weed:

 

[Grama]

Final Tally!!!

To Win/ Props +53.5 units :spotting:
Had 18, 24, 8, and 20 all to win. They came in 1-4 for the race. I was sitting pretty most of the day, and never really worried about the fastest car, because I had them. Even had Spencer in the field and he led the race at one point. All I did in the stands was :drinky:

Matchups 2-3 -1.1 units
Craven and Mayfield were close.

Earlier Qualifying matchups 3-4 -1.5 units

For the weekend, matchups 5-7, -2.6 units
Overall + 50.9 units

:spotting: :weed: :spotting:

Has a kick-ass time at the race. Drank entirely too much, sat in the parking lot after the race for 2.5 hours, but didn't care, kept drinking and partying.

Did I ever mention that 18 is the man! I yelled my ass off for him.

Grama

 

[howdy]

excellent weekend all the way around!
Congrats.

 

[TheShrimp]

Nice Grama

I'm checking out my first race later this summer (The Glen). Sounds like fun. You had a great day for it too.

How about that picture on Fox of Nemechek's crewman with his head in his hands after that lugnut thing? It's got to be a conspiracy against this cat.

 

[Grama]

Thanks Shrimp! Didn't see the picture, but saw him go in after the pit stop. He had a very strong car Sunday.

Have fun at your first race, nothing like getting your cherry popped.