ATS and O/U Numbers Thru Week 10

[GM]

The title says thru week 10, but these are now up to date thru 12 weeks....


Week # / Favs / Dogs / Pushes / Pick 'Ems / Spread Covers / Outright Dog Wins

Week 1: 9 - 7 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 6
Week 2: 7 - 7 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 6
Week 3: 5 - 9 - 0 - 0 - 5 - 4
Week 4: 8 - 6 - 0 - 0 - 3 - 3
Week 5: 6 - 7 - 1 - 0 - 1 - 6
Week 6: 10 - 3 - 1 - 0 - 2 - 1
Week 7: 8 - 6 - 0 - 0 - 3 - 3
Week 8: 7 - 7 - 0 - 0 - 3 - 4
Week 9: 10 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 0
Week 10: 8 - 6 - 0 - 0 - 2 - 4
Week 11: 7 - 9 - 0 - 0 - 3 - 6
Week 12: 12 - 4 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 3

Summary:

• Favorites are 97-73-4 ATS (57.1%), with 2 Pick 'Em Games;
• 63.0% of all dogs covering the spread won the game as well. Of the 73 dogs to cash, 46 were outright wins, 27 were spread-covers only;
• The team that won the game has failed to cover the spread 15.9% of the time (doesn't include games that pushed or Pick 'Em games);
• Favorites are 62-37-2 ATS over the past 7 weeks (62.6%);
• Only three times in twelve weeks have more dogs than favorites covered the spread (and there were two other times dogs and favorites were even);
• Favorites have yet to cover less than 35% of the games in any given week. And they have covered at least 43% of the card every week but one;
• Home teams are 91-79-4 ATS (53.5%)

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Home Favorites By Week

Week 1: 7 - 4
Week 2: 6 - 4 - 1
Week 3: 4 - 6
Week 4: 7 - 6
Week 5: 4 - 5 - 1
Week 6: 8 - 1 - 1
Week 7: 7 - 6
Week 8: 6 - 5
Week 9: 4 - 1
Week 10: 6 - 5
Week 11: 5 - 5
Week 12: 6 - 4

Total: 70-52-3 (57.4%)

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Road Favorites By Week

Week 1: 2 - 3
Week 2: 1 - 3
Week 3: 1 - 3
Week 4: 1 - 0
Week 5: 2 - 2
Week 6: 2 - 2
Week 7: 1 - 0
Week 8: 1 - 2
Week 9: 6 - 1 - 1
Week 10: 2 - 1
Week 11: 2 - 4
Week 12: 6 - 0

Total: 27-21-1 (56.3%)

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Covers By Spread Range - The following numbers are thru Week 10 only...too much work to update it right now!!

Pick 'Em Games - Home teams are 1-1

Home Favs of 1 to 2? = 11-6 ATS (64.7%)
Home Favs of Exactly 3 = 18-11 ATS (62.1%)
Home Favs of 3? to 6? = 18-10 ATS (64.3%)
Home Favs of Exactly 7 = 3-4 ATS (42.9%)
Home Favs of 7? to 9? = 5-7 ATS (41.7%)
Home Favs of 10 to 13? = 3-3 ATS (50%)
Home Favs of 14+ = 0-2 ATS (0%)

Road Favs of 1 to 2? = 6-4 ATS (60%)
Road Favs of Exactly 3 = 6-4 ATS (60%)
Road Favs of 3? to 6? = 4-7 ATS (36.4%)
Road Favs of Exactly 7 = 1-0 ATS (100%)
Road Favs of 7? to 9? = none yet
Road Favs of 10 to 13? = 1-1 ATS (50%)
Road Favs of 14+ = 2-0 ATS (100%)

All 4 Pushes this year have come with lines of -3. Three times the home team was favored, once the road team was the favorite.

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Over/Under By Week

Week 1: 7 - 9
Week 2: 3 - 12 - 1
Week 3: 9 - 5
Week 4: 6 - 8
Week 5: 8 - 6
Week 6: 10 - 4
Week 7: 6 - 8
Week 8: 6 - 7 - 1
Week 9: 6 - 8
Week 10: 7 - 7
Week 11: 8 - 8
Week 12: 6 - 10

Total: 82 Overs, 92 Unders, 2 Pushes (52.9% Unders)

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Points-Per-Game By Week

Week 1: 38.4
Week 2: 35.3
Week 3: 45.4
Week 4: 41.1
Week 5: 44.6
Week 6: 44.7
Week 7: 41.2
Week 8: 41.9
Week 9: 39.9
Week 10: 43.6
Week 11: 44.3
Week 12: 42.1

Average PPG: 41.8

 

[FirstnGoal]

Great Job GM!

 

[Blackman]

Thanks for the breakdown, revenge of the dogs is coming sooner than later.

 

[GM]

These numbers are actually quite typical in most regards, with one glaring exception:

Home Favs of 3? to 6? = 18-10 ATS (64.3%)

Above 3 is usually where it turns, and in a typical year this would be 10-18 instead of 18-10. That's a 16-game swing. If "normal" we'd be looking at favorites being 3 games over .500 overall instead of 19 over with this one stat reversed.

The best bets for spread-range bets in general that I can recommend year-in, year-out:

Dogs getting 7? to 9? points are almost always money-makers at about a 60% clip, and it doesn't matter much if they home or road dogs. Oddly enough, when the spread gets above 10 it flattens out again and it's pretty much 50/50. The REALLY REALLY big favorites have an easier time covering than these 7? to 9? point favs.

Dogs getting 3? to 7 pts are also usually money-makers, but not as solid as above 7.

The other very dependable stat from tracking all this for so long: In Pick 'Em games, take the home team. They've covered 67% of the time, and never been worse than .500 for a season in the 9 years I've been tracking it.

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(All spreads quoted are closing lines at CRIS)

 

[THE HITMAN]

good stuff,buddy

 

[GM]

Thanks guys. Is this the week the dogs finally bark? Lotsa big lines out there....

 

[Billy Barooooooo]

thanks I usually do this but behind on my capping!

BOL this weekend

BB

 

[GM]

Thanks for the compliments guys. Updated the numbers in the first post so it's now through Week 12 (except where noted).

GM