ATS Preaknsess?
- Thread starter Tommy Shelby
- Start date
WIZARD
PREAKNESS
Wagering Strategy
Obviously, I am not going to suggest a win bet on Big Brown at 1-2 odds. I will play three exactas, only reversing Icabad Crane over Big Brown as a very small saver. My main play are the trifectas (selecting the first three finishers in exact order). My first ticket is to "single" Big Brown over the seven horses I feel will round out the trifectas. My second ticket is to narrow down the second leg of the trifecta to my top five horses, then using ALL in the third spot.
* Exactas: 7-3, 7-6, 7-8. Only reverse 3-7 as a very small saver.
* Trifecta Wagers (all tickets are in denominations of $1.00)
TICKET 1: 7 with 2-3-4-5-6-8-12 with 2-3-5-6-8-12 = $42
TICKET 2: 7 with 3-5-6-8-12 with ALL = $55
TOTAL Trifecta wagers above = $97
Wizards Crystal Ball
Pimlico Saturday
Race 3 #7 Cognac Kisses
Race 6 #2 Stormy West
Race 9 #8 Force Freeze
Pimlico Saturday Wizard
Race 1
1 Road View
6 Dont try this at home
2 Crafty Schemer
7 Brush on By
Race 2
11 Virginia Minstrel
14F we're sailing
3 Cryptogram
5 Motown shuffle
main track selections #2 Media play #4 Legit Passion #8 White Diamond #11 Virginia Minstrel
Race 3
#7 Cognac Kisses
#3 Suave Jazz
#4 Starforaday
#5 Forest Park
Race 4
#2 Let me be frank
#7 Red Gulch
#1 Rooten Hero
#8 Off the glass
Race 5
#4 Acinonyx
#1 Tight Storm
#6 Akronism
#2 Ursula's passion
Race 6
#2 Stormy West
#1 Valbenny
#3 Roshani
Race 7
#2 MJ'S Enchanteur
#1 Roman emperior
#3 Spurrier
Race 8
#8 True to tradition
#12 Heroes Reward
#6 He's a big star
#11 Tommies Star
Race 9
#8 Force Freeze
#3 Lantana Mob
#1 Commandeered
Race 10
#6 Stay close
#4 Shakis
#8 Salinja
#2 Distorted reality
Race 11
#4 Bear Now
#6 Lexi Star
#7 Buy the barrel
#1 Alteese
Race 12
#7 Big Brown
#3 Icabad Crane
#8 Kentucky Bear
#6 Racecar Rhapsody
#12 Gayego
Race 13
#7 Basha's Moon
#3 Short Dancer
#5 Homestead Strike
PREAKNESS
Wagering Strategy
Obviously, I am not going to suggest a win bet on Big Brown at 1-2 odds. I will play three exactas, only reversing Icabad Crane over Big Brown as a very small saver. My main play are the trifectas (selecting the first three finishers in exact order). My first ticket is to "single" Big Brown over the seven horses I feel will round out the trifectas. My second ticket is to narrow down the second leg of the trifecta to my top five horses, then using ALL in the third spot.
* Exactas: 7-3, 7-6, 7-8. Only reverse 3-7 as a very small saver.
* Trifecta Wagers (all tickets are in denominations of $1.00)
TICKET 1: 7 with 2-3-4-5-6-8-12 with 2-3-5-6-8-12 = $42
TICKET 2: 7 with 3-5-6-8-12 with ALL = $55
TOTAL Trifecta wagers above = $97
Wizards Crystal Ball
Pimlico Saturday
Race 3 #7 Cognac Kisses
Race 6 #2 Stormy West
Race 9 #8 Force Freeze
Pimlico Saturday Wizard
Race 1
1 Road View
6 Dont try this at home
2 Crafty Schemer
7 Brush on By
Race 2
11 Virginia Minstrel
14F we're sailing
3 Cryptogram
5 Motown shuffle
main track selections #2 Media play #4 Legit Passion #8 White Diamond #11 Virginia Minstrel
Race 3
#7 Cognac Kisses
#3 Suave Jazz
#4 Starforaday
#5 Forest Park
Race 4
#2 Let me be frank
#7 Red Gulch
#1 Rooten Hero
#8 Off the glass
Race 5
#4 Acinonyx
#1 Tight Storm
#6 Akronism
#2 Ursula's passion
Race 6
#2 Stormy West
#1 Valbenny
#3 Roshani
Race 7
#2 MJ'S Enchanteur
#1 Roman emperior
#3 Spurrier
Race 8
#8 True to tradition
#12 Heroes Reward
#6 He's a big star
#11 Tommies Star
Race 9
#8 Force Freeze
#3 Lantana Mob
#1 Commandeered
Race 10
#6 Stay close
#4 Shakis
#8 Salinja
#2 Distorted reality
Race 11
#4 Bear Now
#6 Lexi Star
#7 Buy the barrel
#1 Alteese
Race 12
#7 Big Brown
#3 Icabad Crane
#8 Kentucky Bear
#6 Racecar Rhapsody
#12 Gayego
Race 13
#7 Basha's Moon
#3 Short Dancer
#5 Homestead Strike
John Piesen
Play the top horse to win
Play all horses in exacta, trifecta boxes and in other exotics unless otherwise noted.
Race 1:
#6 Don'ttrythisathome 2-1
#5 Tocqueville 20-1
#1 Road Show 3-1
Race 2:
#2 Media Play 6-1
#5 Motown Shuffle 20-1
#4 Legit Passion 8-1
Race 3: MARYLAND SPRINT HANDICAP
#7 Cognac Kisses 5-2
#4 Starforaday 4-1
#3 Suave Jazz 9-5
Race 4:
#8 Off the Glass 3-1
#10 Shining Punch 7-2
#2X Alphabet Storm 5-1
Race 5: SKIPAT STAKES
#1A Hold That Prospec 4-1
#6 Akronism 8-5
#7 Drama Lady 3-1
Race 6: GALLORETTE HANDICAP (best trifecta box)
#1 Valbenny 3-2
#3 Roshani 2-1
#2 Stormy West 3-1
Race 7: BARBARO STAKES (best exacta box)
#1 Roman Emperor 8-5
#6 Red Sandy 12-1
#5 Da? Tara 6-1
Race 8: OLD MUTUAL TURF SPRINT STAKES
#12 Heros Reward 8-5
#13 Beer Stien 12-1
#14 I've Got Speed 15-1
Race 9: HIRSCH JACOBS STAKES
#8 Force Freeze 2-1 (best bet)
#3 Lantana Mob 8-5
#9 Silver Edition 5-1
Race 10: DIXIE STAKES
#4 Shakis 3-2
#3 Buffalo Man 8-1
#2 Distorted Reality 4-1
Race 11: ALLAIRE DuPONT DISTAFF STAKES
#7 Buy the Barrel 6-1 (best longshot)
#3 Peach Flambe 7-2
#1 Altesse 9-2
Race 12: PREAKNESS STAKES
#6 Racecar Rhapsody 30-1
#7 Big Brown 1-2
#10 Riley Tucker 30-1
#8 Kentucky Bear 15-1
Play #6 To Win & Place
Play a 6-7-8-10 Exacta & Trifecta & Superfecta Box
Race 13:
#7 Basha's Moon 2-1
#5 Homestead Strike 9-2
#3 Short Dancer 5-2
BELMONT PARK FULL CARD
Horses are in John?s order of preference by program number
Play the top horse to win
Play all horses in exacta, trifecta boxes and in other exotics unless otherwise noted.
Race 1:
#3 Ready Road 5-2
#2 Mighty Gulch 6-1
#5 Cool N Collective 8-5
Race 2:
#2 Saumon Fume 5-1
#4 Tiz It 5-2
#7 Sammarco 6-1
Race 3: (best trifecta box)
#8 Midnight Slammer 3-1
#7 Pocatello 5-2
#6 Stonewood 4-1
Race 4:
#8 A Zero Trap 7-2
#4 Golden Alumet 4-1
#7 Benny the Waiter 3-1
Race 5:
#3 Bontempi 2-1 (best bet)
#7 Smart Enuf 5-2
#10 Burnished Copper 4-1
Race 6:
#10 Pennington 3-1
#5 Bagavond 5-1
#6 Peperoni 8-1
Race 7:
#6 Genuine Devotion 8-5
#2 Christmas Kid 4-1
#1 Cure for Sale 30-1 (best longshot)
Race 8:
#5 Winzalot 4-1
#6 Caesar Beware 9-5
#2B Acclimate 15-1
Race 9:
#7 Rite Moment 9-5
#6 Wow Me Free 6-1
#5 Carriage Trail 2-1
Race 10: (best exacta box)
#4 Too Tough Pete 5-1
#3 Personal Shopper 4-1
#8 Dixieland Star 3-1
Play the top horse to win
Play all horses in exacta, trifecta boxes and in other exotics unless otherwise noted.
Race 1:
#6 Don'ttrythisathome 2-1
#5 Tocqueville 20-1
#1 Road Show 3-1
Race 2:
#2 Media Play 6-1
#5 Motown Shuffle 20-1
#4 Legit Passion 8-1
Race 3: MARYLAND SPRINT HANDICAP
#7 Cognac Kisses 5-2
#4 Starforaday 4-1
#3 Suave Jazz 9-5
Race 4:
#8 Off the Glass 3-1
#10 Shining Punch 7-2
#2X Alphabet Storm 5-1
Race 5: SKIPAT STAKES
#1A Hold That Prospec 4-1
#6 Akronism 8-5
#7 Drama Lady 3-1
Race 6: GALLORETTE HANDICAP (best trifecta box)
#1 Valbenny 3-2
#3 Roshani 2-1
#2 Stormy West 3-1
Race 7: BARBARO STAKES (best exacta box)
#1 Roman Emperor 8-5
#6 Red Sandy 12-1
#5 Da? Tara 6-1
Race 8: OLD MUTUAL TURF SPRINT STAKES
#12 Heros Reward 8-5
#13 Beer Stien 12-1
#14 I've Got Speed 15-1
Race 9: HIRSCH JACOBS STAKES
#8 Force Freeze 2-1 (best bet)
#3 Lantana Mob 8-5
#9 Silver Edition 5-1
Race 10: DIXIE STAKES
#4 Shakis 3-2
#3 Buffalo Man 8-1
#2 Distorted Reality 4-1
Race 11: ALLAIRE DuPONT DISTAFF STAKES
#7 Buy the Barrel 6-1 (best longshot)
#3 Peach Flambe 7-2
#1 Altesse 9-2
Race 12: PREAKNESS STAKES
#6 Racecar Rhapsody 30-1
#7 Big Brown 1-2
#10 Riley Tucker 30-1
#8 Kentucky Bear 15-1
Play #6 To Win & Place
Play a 6-7-8-10 Exacta & Trifecta & Superfecta Box
Race 13:
#7 Basha's Moon 2-1
#5 Homestead Strike 9-2
#3 Short Dancer 5-2
BELMONT PARK FULL CARD
Horses are in John?s order of preference by program number
Play the top horse to win
Play all horses in exacta, trifecta boxes and in other exotics unless otherwise noted.
Race 1:
#3 Ready Road 5-2
#2 Mighty Gulch 6-1
#5 Cool N Collective 8-5
Race 2:
#2 Saumon Fume 5-1
#4 Tiz It 5-2
#7 Sammarco 6-1
Race 3: (best trifecta box)
#8 Midnight Slammer 3-1
#7 Pocatello 5-2
#6 Stonewood 4-1
Race 4:
#8 A Zero Trap 7-2
#4 Golden Alumet 4-1
#7 Benny the Waiter 3-1
Race 5:
#3 Bontempi 2-1 (best bet)
#7 Smart Enuf 5-2
#10 Burnished Copper 4-1
Race 6:
#10 Pennington 3-1
#5 Bagavond 5-1
#6 Peperoni 8-1
Race 7:
#6 Genuine Devotion 8-5
#2 Christmas Kid 4-1
#1 Cure for Sale 30-1 (best longshot)
Race 8:
#5 Winzalot 4-1
#6 Caesar Beware 9-5
#2B Acclimate 15-1
Race 9:
#7 Rite Moment 9-5
#6 Wow Me Free 6-1
#5 Carriage Trail 2-1
Race 10: (best exacta box)
#4 Too Tough Pete 5-1
#3 Personal Shopper 4-1
#8 Dixieland Star 3-1
ATS
Preakness
Play top horse to win and play. use the top play and these horses for exacta's tri's etc...
GAYEGO
BIG BROWN
RILEY TUCKER
HEY BYRN
MACHO AGAIN
Preakness
Play top horse to win and play. use the top play and these horses for exacta's tri's etc...
GAYEGO
BIG BROWN
RILEY TUCKER
HEY BYRN
MACHO AGAIN
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
At 6 pm, on Saturday, our Preakness Stakes wager will be a 3-horse Exacta Box of Big Brown, Racecar Rhapsody, and Kentucky Bear.
When you have a situation such as Saturday's 133rd running of the Preakness Stakes where a horse looks unbeatable, it simply doesn't make sense to try and handicap for the win. Big Brown looks as close to peerless in this race as any Triple Crown horse in recent memory and if you didn't believe it before Wednesday's post-position draw, then his 1-2 morning line should have laid any doubts to rest. I can't ever remember any horse in a Triple Crown race (except perhaps Secretariat or Seattle Slew in the Belmont) being given a morning line like that. Of course, it's possible his odds will change, but if his odds go anywhere, it will be down even further. So what we do in this case is handicap the race as if he weren't running in it and then look for value in the exacta wager. After all, there are 13 horses in the race, which means that there is a good chance that there will be a $40 exacta possibility with Big Brown and a longshot horse. The first thing I will do is throw out the second choice, which is the only other Derby horse who is showing up in the race - Gayego. There are plenty of reasons not to like him. He ran very poorly in the Derby and I'm not buying the excuses of a poor trip or getting bumped or anything like that. Second, he has shipped all over the country in the last 4 weeks (California to Arkansas; back to California; then to Kentucky and back to California, and now across the country again to Maryland). No matter what his connections say, this cannot do him any good. And when he won the Arkansas Derby (his first start on dirt), the race was paceless and set up perfectly for him as he held on to win by a 3/4 of a length. That will not be the case in the Preakness. By eliminating Gayego from the possibility of finishing second, we are eliminating what will likely be a sizable chunk of the exacta pool. The next obvious horse is Todd Pletcher's closer, Behindatthebar. His morning line is 10-1, but it's possible that by post time, he will be co-second choice or even ahead of Gayego in the odds. But as much as I liked this horse in the Lexington Stakes, I'm also going to thow him out of the exacta because of his only other start on a dirt track (in the El Camino Real Derby) which was his worst race and the only time he finished out of the exacta in five lifetime tries.
For my longshot horses to use in the exacta, I'm going to look to the two horses with post positions next to Big Brown. First, on the inside of the favorite in the #6 hole is a horse named Racecar Rhapsody. For this horse to be 30-1 in the morning line is absurd. He is one of the biggest closers in the field, has been extremely competitive on both artificial and dirt surfaces, has raced seven times (all with the same very competent jockey, Robby Albarado, which I love to see) and is trained by the very underrated Kenny McPeak. If this horse is anywhere near 30-1 come race time, he must be used in an exacta box with the big favorite.
On the outside of Big Brown is a lightly-raced horse named Kentucky Bear. Unlike Racecar Rhapsody, this horse has some tactical speed, and if the earlier races show that the Pimlico strip is its usual speed-favoring self, then this horse will have the perfect stalking position outside of Big Brown and may be perfectly positioned to challenge him down the stretch. If the pace is soft up front and there are traffic problems for any of the closers (Racecar, Behindatthebar, Yankee Bravo, Stevil) then I like his chances even better. Kentucky Bear's morning line is 15-1 and his connections of Canadian-based trainer Reade Baker and journeyman jockey Jamie Theriot are going to be unknown to all but the most serious racing fans, but that's a good thing as Baker has a very respectable winning percentage in graded stakes (15%) and Theriot was one of the leading riders at the recently concluded Keeneland meet after moving to Kentucky from the Arkansas-Louisiana circuit last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kentucky Bear's odds creep up closer to 20-1 by post time, and that is going to be fine by me.
Let's go with an Exacta Box of Big Brown, Racecar Rhapsody and Kentucky Bear, and if we're really lucky, Big Brown will finish 2nd to one of the other two horses, but we'll win so long as two of our three horses finish in the top two spots. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
When you have a situation such as Saturday's 133rd running of the Preakness Stakes where a horse looks unbeatable, it simply doesn't make sense to try and handicap for the win. Big Brown looks as close to peerless in this race as any Triple Crown horse in recent memory and if you didn't believe it before Wednesday's post-position draw, then his 1-2 morning line should have laid any doubts to rest. I can't ever remember any horse in a Triple Crown race (except perhaps Secretariat or Seattle Slew in the Belmont) being given a morning line like that. Of course, it's possible his odds will change, but if his odds go anywhere, it will be down even further. So what we do in this case is handicap the race as if he weren't running in it and then look for value in the exacta wager. After all, there are 13 horses in the race, which means that there is a good chance that there will be a $40 exacta possibility with Big Brown and a longshot horse. The first thing I will do is throw out the second choice, which is the only other Derby horse who is showing up in the race - Gayego. There are plenty of reasons not to like him. He ran very poorly in the Derby and I'm not buying the excuses of a poor trip or getting bumped or anything like that. Second, he has shipped all over the country in the last 4 weeks (California to Arkansas; back to California; then to Kentucky and back to California, and now across the country again to Maryland). No matter what his connections say, this cannot do him any good. And when he won the Arkansas Derby (his first start on dirt), the race was paceless and set up perfectly for him as he held on to win by a 3/4 of a length. That will not be the case in the Preakness. By eliminating Gayego from the possibility of finishing second, we are eliminating what will likely be a sizable chunk of the exacta pool. The next obvious horse is Todd Pletcher's closer, Behindatthebar. His morning line is 10-1, but it's possible that by post time, he will be co-second choice or even ahead of Gayego in the odds. But as much as I liked this horse in the Lexington Stakes, I'm also going to thow him out of the exacta because of his only other start on a dirt track (in the El Camino Real Derby) which was his worst race and the only time he finished out of the exacta in five lifetime tries.
For my longshot horses to use in the exacta, I'm going to look to the two horses with post positions next to Big Brown. First, on the inside of the favorite in the #6 hole is a horse named Racecar Rhapsody. For this horse to be 30-1 in the morning line is absurd. He is one of the biggest closers in the field, has been extremely competitive on both artificial and dirt surfaces, has raced seven times (all with the same very competent jockey, Robby Albarado, which I love to see) and is trained by the very underrated Kenny McPeak. If this horse is anywhere near 30-1 come race time, he must be used in an exacta box with the big favorite.
On the outside of Big Brown is a lightly-raced horse named Kentucky Bear. Unlike Racecar Rhapsody, this horse has some tactical speed, and if the earlier races show that the Pimlico strip is its usual speed-favoring self, then this horse will have the perfect stalking position outside of Big Brown and may be perfectly positioned to challenge him down the stretch. If the pace is soft up front and there are traffic problems for any of the closers (Racecar, Behindatthebar, Yankee Bravo, Stevil) then I like his chances even better. Kentucky Bear's morning line is 15-1 and his connections of Canadian-based trainer Reade Baker and journeyman jockey Jamie Theriot are going to be unknown to all but the most serious racing fans, but that's a good thing as Baker has a very respectable winning percentage in graded stakes (15%) and Theriot was one of the leading riders at the recently concluded Keeneland meet after moving to Kentucky from the Arkansas-Louisiana circuit last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kentucky Bear's odds creep up closer to 20-1 by post time, and that is going to be fine by me.
Let's go with an Exacta Box of Big Brown, Racecar Rhapsody and Kentucky Bear, and if we're really lucky, Big Brown will finish 2nd to one of the other two horses, but we'll win so long as two of our three horses finish in the top two spots. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
- Nov 28, 2007
- 8,587
- 18
- 0
- Nov 28, 2007
- 8,587
- 18
- 0