August 9...Handicapping Theory....new one tomorrow

[buddy]

College football.....

team A..week #1..road dog+10..loses 40-20 (loses to the number by 10)

team A..week #2..road dog+10..loses 35-20 (loses to the number by 5)

team B..week #1..Home Fav-10..wins 50-30(covers the number by 10)

team B..week #2..Home Fav-10..wins 45-30 (covers the number by 5)

team A

two consecutive road losses/no covers...
BUT, they improved against the number in the second game in relation to the first game.

team B

two consecutive HOME wins/covers...
BUT, they DID NOT improve against the number in the second game in relation to the first game.

Scenario...Game #3....team A vs. team B

team A, after two consecutive road dog losses/no cover, but improving performance ATS, is now at HOME.

team B, after two consecutive wins/cover, but declining performance ATS, is now on the road.

buddy's free pick !

"Lean" toward team A based on their improving performance ATS.

[This message has been edited by buddy (edited 08-09-2001).]

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

interesting stuff, Buddy..may look into that...

 

[djv]

Buddy. You have correct data as to way you might go. But to make sure there are more steps. 1. First team A, played was how good. Second team was how good. Are they same, very close? Or one rated in top 10, the other maybe just out of top 25. How much did team A's, D & OFF improve from one game to the other. In college pay close attention to Off rushing yards. They should have improved if playing a lesser team then first game. If not look for the lucky break that spelled the differance. Could be your team A, has not improved at all. It was luck. In fact you may find they will again be a 10 point dog. But after loosing game three by at least 15 to ATS. It will show they have not improved. And line should have been 17. Now if they stayed the same or improved some in game two. In game three playing another on-ranked team. And now are small Fav. Bingo.
Please do not play your system with out useing all three parts. I can tell you that you will be much more happy.

 

[The Mover]

Buddy,Isn't this similar/same as the regression theory put out by some guys named Lee & Smith Pomona college in Ca.? Don't remember the exact make-up! GL

 

[buddy]

dj,

Thanks for responding !

The level of competition aspect is an element to be considered, but it's not as much of a factor as you would think.

I've always felt that statistics like rushing yards, defensive stats, turnovers, etc. are all contained within the "number."

Las Vegas has some "pretty big fish to fry" and I don't think that posted "number" is just arbitrary. Who's better at "number crunchin'" than the House?

There are other considerations....Coaches, for one. I don't care what my theory says, I ain't bettin' against Spurrier come Hell or high water. Last year, he beat me like a rented mule.

Come to think of it, that might be a good thread...."Coaches...Who sits on the score or who runs it up?"

Last year, I kept handwritten ATS records for every college football team, and when I applied this theory , the results opened my eyes.

It's not failsafe, but it's pretty good.