Aussie futures question

[DZ]

I don't make many bets on tennis, but I put in these 2 futures yesterday and wanted to know what you guys thought.

Essentially I put down a -300 futures bet on the two favorites left (Murray and Fed) that one of them would win. They are on opposite sides of the bracket and if they were to meet in the finals I am guaranteed money.

The two bets:


Single #166509893 (Placed by Web)
Tennis - Futures (Game) Moneyline
Tennis - Australian Open 2010 Mens Winner
All wagers have action.
(2000) Roger Federer 37/20
Risking US$ 140.00 to win US$ 259.00


Single #166509894 (Placed by Web)
Tennis - Futures (Game) Moneyline
Tennis - Australian Open 2010 Mens Winner
All wagers have action.
(2012) Andy Murray 3/2
Risk US$ 160.00 to win US$ 240.00


Obviously I wouldn't have placed this if I didn't think I had a very good shot at winning, but at the time, with nadal and Roddick both gone, I thought my odds were pretty good. Of course with Djokovic now out it looks even better. Murray and Feds odds to win it all are now at 27/20 and 4/5 respectively at the same book. I know it's just a payout of $100 but I just wanted to get some reactions and opinions to the approach I took here (no pun intended).
So was this a good betting strategy or just plain stupid? :shrug:
Your thoughts are appreciated.

- D

 

[kegray1]

Well Cilic isn't going to beat Murray.

Tsonga is playing great tennis but Fed should find a way to finish him unlike Djokovic.

Murray vs Fed will be something.
My lean is Murray but history of these two in majors is exact opposite.
Murray's confidence is at an all time high right now and more than has the game to get it done.

 

[punchmaster]

I don't make many bets on tennis, but I put in these 2 futures yesterday and wanted to know what you guys thought.

Essentially I put down a -300 futures bet on the two favorites left (Murray and Fed) that one of them would win. They are on opposite sides of the bracket and if they were to meet in the finals I am guaranteed money.

The two bets:


Single #166509893 (Placed by Web)
Tennis - Futures (Game) Moneyline
Tennis - Australian Open 2010 Mens Winner
All wagers have action.
(2000) Roger Federer 37/20
Risking US$ 140.00 to win US$ 259.00


Single #166509894 (Placed by Web)
Tennis - Futures (Game) Moneyline
Tennis - Australian Open 2010 Mens Winner
All wagers have action.
(2012) Andy Murray 3/2
Risk US$ 160.00 to win US$ 240.00


Obviously I wouldn't have placed this if I didn't think I had a very good shot at winning, but at the time, with nadal and Roddick both gone, I thought my odds were pretty good. Of course with Djokovic now out it looks even better. Murray and Feds odds to win it all are now at 27/20 and 4/5 respectively at the same book. I know it's just a payout of $100 but I just wanted to get some reactions and opinions to the approach I took here (no pun intended).
So was this a good betting strategy or just plain stupid? :shrug:
Your thoughts are appreciated.

- D

I like. You've easily got the top 2. Numbers wise your risking 300 to win 100. Over the long haul not ideal but here it's good I think. To justify those numbers you need to have a 70% chance of winning ( correct me if I'm wrong math studs) and I think you do.

 

[DZ]

Well Cilic isn't going to beat Murray.

Tsonga is playing great tennis but Fed should find a way to finish him unlike Djokovic.

Murray vs Fed will be something.
My lean is Murray but history of these two in majors is exact opposite.
Murray's confidence is at an all time high right now and more than has the game to get it done.

So, considering your lean and if andy and fed did meet in the finals, would you take, say, half of my guaranteed payout and put it on Murray(presumably the underdog) to try and parlay it into an even bigger payout (with $50 still banked if fed wins)?...or just take the 100?

 

[DZ]

I like. You've easily got the top 2. Numbers wise your risking 300 to win 100. Over the long haul not ideal but here it's good I think. To justify those numbers you need to have a 70% chance of winning ( correct me if I'm wrong math studs) and I think you do.

Thanks pm. Yeah, normally I would not do this for every tournament of this sort, but considering who was eliminated at the time, the history between those players left and their positioning in the bracket, I thought that this had a better than 70%(or 67 or whatever) chance of paying out one way or another. Still no guarantee yet, and I will concede the price was steep, but if just one of them makes the finals they should be a pretty large favorite at higher than -300 odds I should think.

 

[kegray1]

So, considering your lean and if andy and fed did meet in the finals, would you take, say, half of my guaranteed payout and put it on Murray(presumably the underdog) to try and parlay it into an even bigger payout (with $50 still banked if fed wins)?...or just take the 100?

Well it is gambling so I would roll the dice on Murray with the right odds. He will be an underdog but by how much?
I think he will take down Fed and that is pretty strong advice considering I really have never cared for Murray's game.
He is playing insane right now and I think better than Fed.
He is a known crumbler,but has not shown it at all this tourney.

 

[Jimboski]

You're sitting pretty, Diz.
I wouldn't touch a thing.

 

[kegray1]

It looks like the Fed/Murray line will be around:
Fed-130
Murray +115

Right now Fed vs the field is -107 so those will get bigger once he beats Tsonga.
Murray vs Fed/Tsonga winner is +107 and should go up some if he plays Fed.

That really leaves me with a tough call.
I think I gotta trust Fed if those are the odds.

 

[DZ]

Thanks guys. I think I'm going to leave it alone. I would think about Murray if he was btwn a +150 to +175 dog. Otherwise I'll just take the guaranteed payout. Is there anything better than watching a game/match knowing you are going to profit no matter the outcome?

 

[DZ]

I'm seeing Murray as high as +155 at bodog...
What do you think kegray?

 

[kickserv]

bodog....oh no:scared ....if all the action to speak of is from bodog then ummmm.....oh shit:scared

 

[kegray1]

Tough final to call.
History and common sense SCREAMS play FED. Also he has played well this tourney although no huge matchup thus far other than Davy.

As for Murray, the trend is to play him because he is CLEARLY at the top of his game right now. However, history says he flames out.

5dimes has it at:
Fed -158
Murray +148

I was hoping for around +180 or more to try a play against Fed. I just can't do it unless it is a somewhat healthy Nadal on clay against Fed.

My play is Fed or nothing in this one.

 

[DZ]

bodog....oh no:scared ....if all the action to speak of is from bodog then ummmm.....oh shit:scared

Kickserve, what do you mean by this exactly? :shrug:
Obviously there's plenty of action at other books too. As of writing this I see WSEX had Murray as high as +170, but just now down to 160. What's your take on the final?

 

[DZ]

My play is Fed or nothing in this one.

I'd have to agree with this unless I see the odds on Murray move up or very close to 2:1.
Thanks for the reply kegray.

 

[kegray1]

Bodog is not a trustworthy in payments in MANY peoples opinion on this site.
Myself included.

WSEX is somewhat suspect right now as well.

 

[BodogBecky]

Bodog is not a trustworthy in payments in MANY peoples opinion on this site.
Myself included.

WSEX is somewhat suspect right now as well.

Hi, it should take 4-7 biz days to receive payments from any of the Bodog Brand licensees. If you are having any trouble, please PM me your account info and I will speak with the head of finance at the licensee on which you are playing and they will sort out the issue for you.

Becky