Aussie Open Round 3

[kegray1]

Current status:

2010 Aussie Plays
5-3 men's mostly dogs for a +432.50
0-2 Prop play -243
0-1 women's play -100
Total +89.50

I swore off prop plays yet I am back at it.

Stanislas Wawrinka(+110) over Marin Cilic for 135 wins 148.50. Wawrinka is 3-1 lifetime vs Cilic although Cilic's one win was a few weeks ago in 7-6,7-6 fashion. Wawrinka should be slight fav and slight dog.

Wawrinka/Cilic Over 40 games -130 for 65 wins 50. --- 4 of the last 5 sets have gone to tiebreakers between these two in matches in the last year.
Although Wawrinka took him in 3 at French last year 7-6,7-6,6-1. Gonna need Cilic to be more game than that.

 

[kegray1]

Adding one more:

Ivo Karlovic(-112) over Ljubicic for 112 wins 100. Ljubicic has won 2 against guys they found on the street. Karlovic has 2 nice wins in this tourney. Karlovic is 1-0 lifetime vs Ivan. One of the 30 year olds is going home tonight and the other in the next round vs Nadal. I think Ljubicic goes tonight.

Never doubt Dr. Ivo. A win here and it is his deepest run in Australia. I think this run by Karlovic is similar to his run to the quarters at Wimb. last year with favorable matchups until he ran into some guy named Fed.

 

[The Brainiac]

Over 1.5 tiebreaks in Karlovic vs Ljubicic match .

Over 9.5 games 1st set in Kohli vs Nadal + 100
Over 9.5 games in 2nd same match + 110

Nadal will choose to receive , Kohli would choose to serve so unless Kohli wins the first set with a break before Nadal wins 4 Nadal will have to break him 2 times to nil to get it under 9.5 . It's possible of course but lets see if he can get those 2 unanswered breaks out of 4 games .

 

[kickserv]

Tons of Over/Under action:scared

 

[kegray1]

Current status:

2010 Aussie Plays
6-4 men's mostly dogs for a +397.50
0-3 Prop play -308
0-1 women's play -100
Total -10.50

I think Prop plays might be my downfall this tourney. NOTE TO SELF: STICK TO THE MEN'S GAME ONLY. :shrug:

Wawrinka was a HUGE swing in my numbers last night, 400 swing.
Wins the first set and thinking ok either he wins the match or if he losses then at least I have the over 40 games with him winning first set in 10 games. Wrong lost with on 38 games played. That hurt.

On another side note, I am only 3-4 in non Karlovic plays. Dr. Ivo has been good to me at 3-0 this tourney.

 

[kegray1]

Weinerdog just called me and said Christmas is upon us. :142smilie

Denis Istomin(+1685) over Novak "Jerk"ovic for 40 wins 674.00 :scared --We know who the better player is here,but Istomin is hot right now and I was looking forward to a play on him around +800, so +1685 is pretty sweet. Let's just see how hot Denis truely is.

The 1st set will determine if Istomin has a chance.
Djokovic is a slow starter and has been in the first two matches winning 7-5 and losing 6-3 against weaker opponents than Istomin.
Istomin is hot and a fast start could be huge for confidence.

 

[kegray1]

Talk about an unlucky start for Istomin.
5 break points in 2 games and can't get 1 game.
Also gets broken on his only service game.
Down 3-0 in the first and could be up 2-1 or even 3-0.
ROUGH.
Underdogs can't have luck like this and expect to win.

 

[kegray1]

Adding one more for the night:

Parlay:
Hewitt over Bags
Tsonga over Haas
60 wins 101

Really like Tsonga over Haas but some high odds so I am gonna roll him with Hewitt. Fed likes him over Bags so that is good enough for me. :SIB

 

[kegray1]

Well if Istomin is hot then Djokovic is ON FIRE.
This is a flatout beatdown. Man vs a boy matchup.

 

[kegray1]

Dropped 40 trying to become a millionaire on Istomin, but got back 101 on the parlay.
The part of the tournament I hate is about to start :
Skilled players vs Skilled players

Good news is that I have 2 futures on Fed and Nadal to make the Semi's and I see nothing stopping that from happening.

Current status:

2010 Aussie Plays
6-5 men's mostly dogs for a +357.50
0-3 Prop play -308
0-1 women's play -100
1-0 parlay +101
Total +50.50

Future Pending:
FED TO MAKE SEMI'S(-140) for 140 wins 100.
NADAL TO MAKE SEMI's(-111) for 111 wins 100.