Aussie Open (week two)
- Thread starter Nelson
- Start date
Prefer unders but all NBA have been under tonight, Portland is last game. Often in this situation the last game will reverse.
Don't buy the Roddick hype. He has never produced under pressure. Return a few to him, he'll make errors. Always has. Djokovic breathed winner from the first time he came on the scene.
Blake and Murray were big announcer picks, both came up zero under pressure. Blake has always been weak minded; Murray appears to be on the way up, but here showed nothing under pressure.
Better dog than Roddick tonight is del Porto, who I think will give Federer trouble. Fed's big problem these days, as I see it, is unforced errors. At his top he didn't make them but he sure does now. Probably take Porto +6 or 6' games.
Don't buy the Roddick hype. He has never produced under pressure. Return a few to him, he'll make errors. Always has. Djokovic breathed winner from the first time he came on the scene.
Blake and Murray were big announcer picks, both came up zero under pressure. Blake has always been weak minded; Murray appears to be on the way up, but here showed nothing under pressure.
Better dog than Roddick tonight is del Porto, who I think will give Federer trouble. Fed's big problem these days, as I see it, is unforced errors. At his top he didn't make them but he sure does now. Probably take Porto +6 or 6' games.
Record: 16-12
Units: 0
Starting a units record today, fits tennis and such better than 110. Tennis bets that fall between the 120s will be included in both records.
My reads and reasoning for today's matches.
Roddick-Federer
Whether Fed's last match was an aberration or signal that he has returned to top form remains to be seen. Against del Potro he was nearly perfect, even as he made plenty of unforced errors in the match before. For this particular match, what matters is that Roddick, no matter how the announcers pump him, is far inferior to Federer and always will be. Federer going off at under -700 over Roddick is a joke, less than half of what the true line should be. Roddick didn't beat Djokovic. Djok wilted. The average person will not see this, and the average announcer will not mention it. But the fact is that Djok was going to do in Roddick precisely the way Tsongas did in Blake. All the old holes and openings were there. In the first set Djokovic took advantage and won. Then he faded. All those holes will be exploited by Federer tonight in what I expect to be a straight-set win. The only real danger in this match, as we have seen, is that Fed conks out due to heat or injury. But that was last year. Fed needs bad to get to the finals and get his Sampras-tying slam. Which will be extremely hard to do against Nadal. What's likeliest to happen here is that Roddick at best wins one set, but I think he'll get one 5- or 6-7 and then fold like usual That's the way to bet, anyway. Like I said, all the holes in his game continue to be there as evident in the Djokovic match.
Federer (Roddick) 6.8 units to win 1 unit (5d)
Federer -1.5 sets (Roddick) 4.1 units to win 1 unit (5d)
Laying off the Dementieva-SerenaW match. All the smart guys are on Dementieva. Not sure whether its going to be played with roof open, and that seems to make a difference.
The smart guys (not just here) are also on Zvonereva, but i've had very good results with Safina and I'm staying on her here. She might lose but she won't crack like head case Kuznetsova.
Pick: Safina +3 games -115 (Zvonereva) (5d)
Safina +3 games (Zvonereva) 2.3 units to win 2 units (5d)
This mixed-doubles pick is a straight follow from a source who i've had success tailing.
Pick: Dechy/Ram -120 (Medina Garrigues/Robredo)
Dechy/Ram (Medina Garrigues/Robredo) 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Units: 0
Starting a units record today, fits tennis and such better than 110. Tennis bets that fall between the 120s will be included in both records.
My reads and reasoning for today's matches.
Roddick-Federer
Whether Fed's last match was an aberration or signal that he has returned to top form remains to be seen. Against del Potro he was nearly perfect, even as he made plenty of unforced errors in the match before. For this particular match, what matters is that Roddick, no matter how the announcers pump him, is far inferior to Federer and always will be. Federer going off at under -700 over Roddick is a joke, less than half of what the true line should be. Roddick didn't beat Djokovic. Djok wilted. The average person will not see this, and the average announcer will not mention it. But the fact is that Djok was going to do in Roddick precisely the way Tsongas did in Blake. All the old holes and openings were there. In the first set Djokovic took advantage and won. Then he faded. All those holes will be exploited by Federer tonight in what I expect to be a straight-set win. The only real danger in this match, as we have seen, is that Fed conks out due to heat or injury. But that was last year. Fed needs bad to get to the finals and get his Sampras-tying slam. Which will be extremely hard to do against Nadal. What's likeliest to happen here is that Roddick at best wins one set, but I think he'll get one 5- or 6-7 and then fold like usual That's the way to bet, anyway. Like I said, all the holes in his game continue to be there as evident in the Djokovic match.
Federer (Roddick) 6.8 units to win 1 unit (5d)
Federer -1.5 sets (Roddick) 4.1 units to win 1 unit (5d)
Laying off the Dementieva-SerenaW match. All the smart guys are on Dementieva. Not sure whether its going to be played with roof open, and that seems to make a difference.
The smart guys (not just here) are also on Zvonereva, but i've had very good results with Safina and I'm staying on her here. She might lose but she won't crack like head case Kuznetsova.
Pick: Safina +3 games -115 (Zvonereva) (5d)
Safina +3 games (Zvonereva) 2.3 units to win 2 units (5d)
This mixed-doubles pick is a straight follow from a source who i've had success tailing.
Pick: Dechy/Ram -120 (Medina Garrigues/Robredo)
Dechy/Ram (Medina Garrigues/Robredo) 1.2 units to win 1 unit
