GOod luck kick. :mj06:
Carlton 1.95
...another loss to a solid defensive team (Hawks)...beaten 4 bad teams in the mean-time...Melb, Bris, this WC team (in Melb) and Port @ AAMI...
...surprisingly, WC's numbers aren't that different Home/Away for a change...play slightly more defensive at home, allow one more shot...but it's a midfield thing. Their 1.88 D @ home is second worst in the comp to only Richmond (on the season)...the Blues should finally be able to get something going.
Eagles have had a super tough run lately, but Carlton are a genuine top 8 team who have hit a rough patch themselves. Should be too good.
Sydney -9.5
We all know about their defense, but almost unbelievably they are 4th best on the season for conversion up forward!!...2nd best in the last 4 games.
Melbourne still going at an awful -16 I50's last 4 (-8 v. Ess, -10 @ Freo)...there's no way they get to tip the midfield ledger in this game enough to win the scoring battle...esp. since in the last 4 they allow a shot every 1.83 (not better than 2.00 in their last 5).
I still maintain Melbourne are the worst team in the comp right now.
Crows -23.5
Just don't see it being close at all. Last 4 games, Crows an outrageous +22 I50's...combine with Port's League worst (by a lONG way!) conversion ratio...(Score every 2.42 entries, give up a score every 1.78!! )...
...and it just can't be close at all.
They've lost their last 5 at home by 26+...
...two most recent games v. bad teams Crows have won at home by 84 (Ess) and 44 (37-18 shots! v. Melb).
Sure, history between the 2 shows close results, but I'd suggest it's been pretty rare that the two teams were as far apart form-wise...
...in fact, only 3 times in their last 10 metings (late 2005), have the Crows been shorter than 1.55...
...they've won 2 of those games (1.52 late last year) by 70, and (1.35 early 2006) by 50.
No McLepd or Goodwin, but Bock back, and when they can afford to drop Davis who's been pretty good, I'd say they're going along well enough to get the job done easily again.
Collingwood v. Richmond under 186.5
Wanted 185. Collingwood playing very good D, haven't allowed more than 79 points in their last 5 games...have only given up 20+ shots 4 times since rd. 2!!
Tigers going pretty well too, have allowed more than 104 once in their last 10 games, as such, Pies games have topped 187 just 1 time in their last 8...Tigers 3 times in last 10.
