Australian Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Peter Lonard to win 12/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
Has looked very solid in the last two weeks, finishing 5th both times and well in contention throughout. With a very consistent record in this event - no worse than 21st in any year since 1995 - it all points to another high finish and he has been able to close out events in style in his home country. With the weakest event in years following the debacle at Victoria Golf Club last year, there are not too many challengers this week.

Rod Pampling to win 25/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
One who is a challenger is Pampling. His current form is even better than Lonard's - he reached the playoff for the MasterCard Masters two weeks ago and finished just a shot behind Peter Senior last week. He did ride his luck at times in the final round, but in that form he should not be that price (he is generally 16/1 elsewhere). He played well in this event to finish 4th two years ago and could very easily match that feat.

Geoff Ogilvy to win 25/1 e.w. @ Stan James and BetInternet
Few can match Ogilvy's form in this event - he has finished in the top-10 in each of his last three attempts. But his form at the end of the PGA Tour season was even more impressive: five top-10 finishes in his last eight starts. Having finished 11th in his first start of his late 2003 ANZ Tour season (the MasterCard Masters), there are plenty of indications that Ogilvy should feature this week.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

anyone have weather link. All I can find is Victoria falls and not sure that is correct.
____________________
Who just moved line on Walters?Was that you Stan?

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Rod Pampling to beat Aaron Baddeley -116 @ Pinnacle
There are good reasons to not oppose Baddeley this week - he is the touring pro for the host course, Moonah Links, and he has finished 1st, 1st and 2nd in his last three Australian Opens - but I am going to do so anyway! Apart from one week (Texas Open), he has played very poorly since returning from injury with a best finish of 33rd in the last six months and he even missed the cut in the MasterCard Masters two weeks ago. He has admitted that he has not practised as much as he would like for this event as he was involved in his own World Junior Championship last week. He has a great history in this event, but this year should be much more of a struggle.
(also available at Five Dimes and Centrebet)

Rod Pampling to beat Jarrod Moseley -110 @ SkyBet [4.5 units]
Discounting last year's shortened event (due to the speed of the greens), Moseley' record in this event is rather mixed and does not compare well to that of Pampling. Add in Pampling's two very near misses in the last two weeks, even though Moseley did get into the playoff in the MasterCard Masters, and he really should go close again this week. Moseley is nowhere near as consistent.
(also available at Sportingbet and Sporting Odds)

Euan Walters to beat Steve Collins -115 @ Five Dimes [4.5 units]
After showing very little form for the best part of three years, Walters has been very impressive in the last two weeks. He has finished 11th and 6th, finishing both events in style and well ahead of Collins on both occasions. With Collins having missed the cut in three of his last four Australian Opens, Walters only need to keep up this form to ensure a healthy win.

Adam Crawford to beat Marcus Fraser -105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Opposing Fraser again. His form was faltering at the end of his European campaign and it has continued in Australia with finishes of 40th and a missed cut in the last two weeks. Little comparison with Crawford who has finished in the top-20 on both occasions. Similar story in this event with Fraser missing the cut in his sole appearance and Crawford finishing 42nd and 6th in the last two years.

Stephen Leaney to beat Geoff Ogilvy -108 @ Pinnacle
Largely a hedge play on the Ogilvy outright. Leaney was a very close fourth choice for the outrights as he is an excellent links and wind player, but he played indifferently in the Presidents Cup and the Nedbank Challenge. He should still feature, but Ogilvy looks the more likely player to win, but is opposed here as he rather erratic and is much more likely to miss the cut than Leaney.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I thought so

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

:lol:

 

[Stanley]

DTB,

The course is about one hour's drive from Melbourne on the Mornington Peninsula. You can get the local weather forecast here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV10460.txt

 

[Stanley]

Sorry about Walters

They're adjusting lines almost as fast as Camelot did :nooo:

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks for weather Stan. I was waiting for weather for 1st rounders and my odds changed and I anticipated what happen.
Some nice 1st rounders @ 5dimes but some at slightly reduced odds now

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1.5 units unless stated):

Steve Allan to beat Peter Fowler -125 @ Expekt
With top-10 finishes in each of the last two weeks and his 2004 PGA Tour safely secured before the end of the season, this has been a very good twelve months for Steve Allan. He will have the pressure of being defending champion, but he is playing better than his opponent who has a poor record in this event anyway.

John Senden to beat Marcus Fraser -118 @ Expekt [4.5 units]
Another chance to oppose Fraser eagerly seized! Senden may have a poor record in this event, but he is playing far better in the last 18 months than at any time and is comfortably in the top-125 on the PGA Tour. He has finished ahead of Fraser in each of the last two weeks and should do again this week.

Stephen Leaney to beat Aaron Baddeley +100 @ Paddy Power and SIA
Adding another small play on Leaney as the wind is forecast to blow this week. Badds will either keep up his incredible run in this event in which case this is a single unit lost or he will miss the cut. He is much more likely to do either of these than grind out the pars in the same way that Leaney did en route to finishing 2nd in the U.S. Open in June.

P.S. There is a rather large chance for a scalp on the Walters play above if you managed to get on at the original price. Five Dimes are now offering Collins @ +135!

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (1 Unit - all e.w.)

A Crawford - 80/1 @ SportingBet
C Downes - 200/1 @ PaddyPower
T Price - 125/1 @ Sporting Odds
J van de Velde - 100/1 @ Sporting Odds
S Hend - 80/1 @ Sporting Odds
P Senior - 50/1 @ Bet365
G Ogilvey - 25/1 @ Coral - I agree with Stan's thinking on this one.

Why the large number of selections? As usual, I like the longer odds, and in the above cases, these are especially good prices. This looks like quite a wide open Tournament, with the weather playing a factor - it's very windy.

The following quote from Peter Thomson, who designed and built the Moonah Links, says it all: "If the Mornington Peninsula experienced four days without wind--a remote possibility - believe a few under par will win. If anyone went four rounds under par, I'd be astonished, even in calm conditions. In a wind, 75 will be a very good score. The average might be more like 80."

Under these circumstances, betting the long shots, in my view, can produce an unexpected outcome. We'll know on Sunday.

Good Luck!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

LA I have saw several reports like the one Thomson gave,this one by players
http://sports.yahoo.golfserv.com/gdc/news/article.asp?Source=YAHOO&id=20061
---but scores yesterday sure were misleading.
While I don't venture much into these Euro events I did see several am/pm tee time mismatches yesterday @ 5Dimes
and ventured out on several I thought looked lucrative considering stats and tee times and had dismal results.
I think the rain was the culprit.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I'm going to take an in-running play......

Baddeley 20 ew 1/4 1234

He has an early tee time and knows his way around this course. We'll see. :shrug:

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

So much for Badds

 

[lal2000]

Downes is hanging on by the skin of his teeth! He need to shoot a fourth round like his first to win this thing - it would be a remarkable achievement if he did so.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights final update: 1-2; +8.25 units

Lonard 1st
Pampling mc
Ogilvy mc

Great final round by Lonard in poor conditions, shooting 3-under-par on the back nine to wrest victory away from Leaney. After two weeks of having a selection finish 2nd, it was a very nice way to end the season!

Matchups final update: 4-4-0; +0.29 units

Pampling/Baddeley LOST by 4
Pampling/Moseley LOST by 9
Walters/Collins WON by 6
Crawford/Fraser LOST by 4
Leaney/Ogilvy WON by 7
Allan/Fowler LOST by 3
Senden/Fraser WON by 2
Leaney/Baddeley WON by 8

Small gain on the matchups, but they were never looking very good as soon as Pampling missed the cut. Three plays lost on a player who had been so consistent. Made to regret not having Leaney as an outright selection, but at least he won both his matches. Always satisfying to finish the last week of the season in profit.

Australasian Tour final ytd
Matchups: 29-23; +9.01 units
18-holes: 0-0; +0.00 units
Outrights: 7-20; -0.22 units

All Tours final ytd
Matchups: 458-323; +186.78 units
18-holes: 302-282; -46.55 units
Outrights: 108-389; +31.70 units

 

[lal2000]

Stan - nice call on Lonard - well done.

I am deeply disappointed in Downes playing on the last day - quality will out in the end. He was outplayed by Lonard and no doubt the pressure began to tell as well. A payout of 50-1 is still welcome for his second place, but 200-1 would have been much more welcome!

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Nice call on the 200 ew. Very rare to see even a 100 come close let alone 200.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Did ya have a little anxiety in that final rd lal Not a bad pay day regardless,:thumb:

Nice call on Lonard Stan. While you fell a tad short of your +200 unit goal I think the most incredible stat is you have averaged well above 150 units profit a year for 5 years running.
Consistency speaks volumns--my hats off to you.:clap:

 

[Stanley]

The average is still well above 200 units; it was just this year that I missed the target.

As the last paragraph in the Golf Forum Recap shows, it's hats off to everyone this year :clap:

I doubt any forum can match that record!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Sorry Stan You know how my math is. I was dividing by an extra year
--Agree don't think there is much chance any forum will with exception of maybe the Off the Wall crew. Those boys pretty strong in their own right