Australian Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Stephen Leaney to win 28/1 e.w. @ Stan James and Bet365
Avoiding the single-figure odds on Allenby and Appleby, so looking for better value from player like Leaney who finished 2nd in this event last year. Despite not securing a top-10 finish on the PGA Tour since May, he has finished 2nd in each of his last two events in Australia, so well-rested, he should certainly earn his fourth top-10 finish in this event in the last seven years.

Craig Parry to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Parry is coming off a decent showing in Japan where he finished 12th last week to get rid of any rustiness from the end of the PGA Tour season. He had finished 17th in his last PGA Tour start, so the form was there and he will be looking to lay the ghost of his playoff loss in this event on this course in 1990. He has since finished in the top-3 a further three times without winning his national Open - the last time two years ago - but his won on the PGA Tour in March was enough proof to himself that he can still win at this level. He really should be at shorter odds, even if just for the place odds.

Steve Allan to win 50/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Allan, on the other hand, has won this title and did so in 2002 by a single shot from Parry. He only just managed to keep his PGA Tour Card, mainly because of a 2nd place finish in the Reno-Tahoe Open in August, but his record in this event is good and in Australia in general. He has finished 11th and 1st in this event in the last two years and has finished inside the top-11 in each of his last five starts in Australia. He may struggle for self-belief on the PGA Tour, but it does not seem to be missing when at home.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Steve Allan to beat Bob Estes -105 @ Centrebet [4.5pts]
Estes has certainly dominated this matchup on the PGA Tour, though they have split their last four meetings and on an Australian course it is totally different affair. While Allan is a former winner of this event and has finished in the top-11 in each of his last five starts in his homeland, Estes finished 27th in his only previous entry into this event (1997) and in his only two starts in this country in the last five years, he finished 31st in the Greg Norman International in 2000 and lost in the first round of the WGC Match Play in 2001. Home advantage is very large in this match.

Greg Chalmers to beat Paul Sheehan +100 @ Five Dimes
Sheehan has showed some good form in Japan in October, but he does not warrant favouritism here. He has missed hte cut in five of his last seven starts in Australia and has just one top-50 finish in the Australian Open since 1997; Chalmers has finished in the top-25 every year since 1997 and won this event in 1998. Having shown good form in October, though it was not enough to save his PGA Tour Card, he could easily continue his run of top-25 finishes this year.

Steve Conran to beat Peter Fowler -114 @ Expekt
Conran has been in great form on the Japan Tour, winning once and finishing in the top-25 in each of his last eight starts. He did finish 6th in this event last year and even though that meant that he was still one shot behind Fowler, the senior player is clearly in much poorer form than twelve months ago and another top-10 finish looks very unlikely.
(also available at SkyBet)

Stephen Leaney to beat Peter Lonard +140 @ Pinnacle [4.5pts]
"One swallow doesn't make a summer" and all that. Lonard did win last week on what is effectively the Australasian Challenge Tour, but he had admitted that the previous wekend "he felt like he couldn't hit it to save his life" and "honestly, I was worried about coming out here and making an idiot of myself." This has been a difficult season for Lonard in which he has struggled with injury and though he is defending champion, he only finished one shot of Leaney last year. In their 20 common events in 2004, Lonard has finished ahead of Leaney only six times and only once in the last three months. He may have won last week against minor opposition, but this will be a true test of the confidence in his game.

Richard Green to beat Brett Rumford -125 @ Centrebet [3pts]
Green has dominated this matchup on the European Tour with a h2h record of 9-1-1 in the last six months and with a record of five top-15 finishes in the last eight years in this event, Green should certainly continue to dominate this match in Australia.

 

[bombercoops]

Considering our golf season in Australia is so short, it's easy to forget that we still have one. GL with the aussie open picks stanley!

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Michael Campbell(28/1) e.w. @ Bet 365
- - Lousy odds and dreadful form, but I'm obligated to make the play. I know Michael loves playing in Australia, but he missed out in 2003 with his sights on the U.S. Tour, and the best of 2004 for health (knee rehab?) reasons. I vowed to play him in just this spot, but I suspect issues with his game will produce a fairly poor performance - but he did explode in Ireland (which he also loves) in 2003 off of a miserable run in the U.S. . . .Terry Price at 50/1 would have earned my money for a posted play at 66/1.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Leaney 13th
Parry 19th
Allan mc

No return, though at least Leaney did hang around the top-10 and did get into the payout places on the front nine, but a inward half of 39 took him out of contention. He finished only five shots behind of the winner, Peter Lonard.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-2-0; -3.23pts

Allan/Estes LOST by 11
Chalmers/Sheehan WON by 4
Conran/Fowler WON by 7
Leaney/Rumford LOST by 5
Green/Rumford WON by 7

Won more matches than lost, but it doesn't help when those two losses were on the most-fancied matches! Allan played very poorly and Lonard played very much against expectations, though Leaney was still ahead of him with nine holes to play.

Australasian Tour ytd
Outrights: 1-17; -25.88pts
Matchups: 16-13; -8.04pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 98-395; +281.12pts
Matchups: 426-317; +119.17pts