Australian PGA Championship

[Trampled Underfoot]

Took some of the Brendon Jones 80ew.

Norman looks big at 40 but I dont know much about him so i'll see if anyone else grabs a piece of that before I jump on.

GL

 

[Clive]

I hate to go against the man in form TU, but surely you can't hit the jackpot two weeks running!?

It's Parry for me...has won on this track before and had a few top threes, pipped in the play-off last week....16/1 ok i guess.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Nick O'Hern to win 22/1 e.w. available generally
Can't see why he is at such a high price. He ended the European Tour season in great form and has very good form on this course. He won the last Coolum Classic to be staged here in 1999 and finished 8th last year. He did falter at the weekend in last week's event, but he showed enough form over the first two rounds to justify his retention as an outright selection this week.

Rod Pampling to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
Did consider retaining Craig Parry at 16/1, but with him having failed to par the last hole to win last week's event, I am not yet in the forgiving mood! Pampling was only two shots out of that playoff last week and was in contention throughout the event, which was an impressive performance given that he was returning from minor surgery at the end of a very successful PGA Tour season. He has decent form on this course, but is arguably playing better now than at any stage in his career and should feature this week.

Greg Norman to win 50/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Back injury has restricted his tournament golf this year, but he will make a well-publicised entry this week with close-friend Lleyton Hewitt on the bag. He says his game is on the verge and in his home-State, he could very well be competitive again. He has remained competitive in Australian events despite problems elsewhere - his last five finishes on this Tour have been 4th, 6th, 6th, 4th and 25th - and while I would have preferred SkyBet to have offered place-only terms, these are certainly generous odds.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Steve Allan to beat Brendan Jones -125 @ Expekt
Jones is a far better player in Japan than in Australia where he has managed just one top-10 finish in the last two years (11 starts). Start contrast with Allan who in three Australian starts in the past twelve months has won the Australian Open, finished 11th in the Heineken Classic and 7th last week.

Greg Norman to beat Steve Elkington -114 @ Centrebet [3 units]
Either the books or I have got Greg Norman all wrong this week. As well as a tipping him to be a contender this week, I'm backing him against two 2nd division players. Elk clambered back to 22nd place last week with a final round 68, but even that was his 2nd best finish since the 2002 British Open and his first start in over five months. I can find no record of him having played at Hyatt Coolum, so will certainly back Norman again who was 4th here last year.

Greg Norman to beat Marcus Fraser -128 @ Five Dimes [4.5 units]
Fraser is a player of the future as he has shown on the European Challenge Tour this year, but his form was faltering towards the end of the European season and he only finished 40th last week. Having missed the cut here last year, he may only reach last week's performance and that will not be enough against Norman.

John Senden to beat Marcus Fraser -118 @ Expekt [3 units]
Also opposing Fraser with Senden who has a very promising season on the PGA Tour. He also looked good last week, despite his 2nd round 79, in finishing 27th and thus ahead of Fraser. And he also has a good record on this course. As well as being a top-20 finisher last year, he finished 3rd in the last Coolum Classic to be staged here (1999). He has become a very steady golfer who will be disappointed if he does not finish in the top-20.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Surley this payoff can not be correct with 4 3balls and 1 push involved

Selections
Event Date Event Selections Odds E/W Terms Result
1 10/12/2003 Australian PGA Championship R 1 Lonard/Moseley/Beem
(3 Balls) Peter Lonard
+125 To Win Won
2 10/12/2003 Australian PGA Championship R 1 Scott/O'Malley/Elkington
(3 Balls) Adam Scott
+100 To Win Won
Dead Heat of 2
3 10/12/2003 Australian PGA Championship R 1 O'Hern/Chalmers/Barnes
(3 Balls) Nick O'Hern
+110 To Win Void
4 10/12/2003 Australian PGA Championship R 1 Parry/Cink/Fowler
(3 Balls) Craig Parry
+138 To Win Won
Multiples
Bet Type No of Bets Unit Stake Stake To Win Returns
Four-Folds 1 10.00 10.00 53.44

 

[Stanley]

Yes, it's right

Lonard won at 5/4, so $10 became $22.50

Parry won at 11/8, so $22.50 became $53.44

Scott had a two-way tie at evens, so evens is paid out on half the cumulative stake (half of $53.44 = $26.72) which pays out $53.44

And the O'Hern bet was void

So two wins, one tie and one void returned at odds of just over 13/3

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Hmmm I see now. I was thinking I had 3 wins and the void was the tie. I should probably never question things if I can't figure it out myself I lean on my UK mates pencils too often to figure for me.

 

[lal2000]

A nice start to a sunny Sunday morning in London - while all else looks dismal, I did have a substantial unposted bet on Peter Senior at 100-1 ew with Sportingbet. Will certainly help with the Christmas shopping!

 

[redsfan]

Well done Lal

Why unposted if 'substantial' and un-mentioned by other forumites?

 

[Stanley]

Matchup final update: 4-0-0; +12.00 units

Allan/Jones WON by 8
Norman/Elkington WON by 6
Norman/Fraser WON by 6
Senden/Fraser WON by 4

Very nice sweep, particularly as three of the four matchups were decided at the cut and no selection ever trailed.

Outrights final update: 1-2; +0.94 units

O'Hern 14th
Pampling 2nd
Norman 20th

Rather a sense of deja-vu. Exact same result as last week with one outright finishing 2nd and O'Hern playing great for the first two rounds, but indifferently thereafter. At least last week Parry had a great chance to win as Pampling was rather flattered to finish just one shot behind Senior. Profitable event, but all three selections had been in the top-5 after the first round and I was very hopeful of getting the winner out of one of them. After two second-place finishes in the last two weeks, maybe it will be third time lucky in the last event of the year.

Australasian Tour ytd
Matchups: 25-19; +8.72 units
18-holes: 0-0; +0.00 units
Outrights: 6-18; -8.47 units

All Tours ytd
Matchups: 448-315; +185.65 units
18-holes: 302-282; -46.55 units
Outrights: 103-385; +15.95 units

 

[lal2000]

Redsfan

Not quite sure what you're asking.

I place a lot of bets I do not post - I suspect other forum members are no different in this respect. I tend to post those bets on which I have a higher level of confidence in the outcome. At 100/1, Peter Senior was an obvious longshot, but I was exploiting some anomolies in the pricing. I play ?45 ($75) as a single unit on golf outrights, so in this case, my e.w. bet was a total of ?90 ($150). You can work out why I described it as substanial.

Obviously, it would have been nice for me to have shared this one, but I can't say I felt overly confident about Senior's chances until after the first days play.

Hope that explains things.

 

[Smithhappens]

liking norman meself