Australian PGA

[Ian]

Strange situation this week in that Turner is defending tournament champion but Rumford is defending course champion having won the ANZ Players championship here last year (as an amateur) - the week after Baddeley won his first tournament as an amateur.
Ever get that feeling of deja vu

Rumford could well be worth following this week as he tries to emulate Baddeley and he has just secured his playing priveleges on the European tour
Other players to note this week are
O'Hern - in good form and has played well here last 2 years
Mr R Pampling - ditto to above but I think he is playing in the US PGA Qualifying
Two outsiders to note if they do play are Richard Backwell and David Mackenzie who both have solid course form

 

[Stanley]

Well Ian, you're certainly keeping me on my toes

Used to think Monday afternoon GMT was a good time to set the ball rolling for this week's events and you've got your research & thoughts posted for the week already

Still, nice to sit back and not post until Tuesday now. At least until the WGC matchplay in January

 

[Ian]

Stan
Fortunately (?) this is all I do at the moment so have all the time in the world and still believe the early bird catches...
As for the WGC in January I'll leave that one to you

 

[Ian]

Cannot find any match bets of note (yet)
but for those of you looking to back Rumford this week, you will not get bigger than the 33-1 that firststake.com have on offer some places have him as low as 16 or 18-1

 

[Ian]

Seek and thou shalt find....
Chris Riley over Scott Hend -111 Firststake
Riley 4 top tens on PGA tour this year
Hend although a promising player finished virtually last on this course last year and missed the cut last week, he shot 4 over on the 6 par 5's he played including 3 7's!!
The outright odds should be around
33-1 Riley and 66-1 Hend not 66-1 each of two
I believe they have misquoted Riley (Hills only go 25's)

 

[Ian]

Adding
Rumford over O'Malley -111 Paddypower
Rumford for reasons above + early 1st round tee time over late and O'Malley after good opening round last week somewhat fell away

 

[Stanley]

No time for analysis this week, may post some thoughts on this event later, but just the late plays for now

Outright plays:

Peter O'Malley to win e/w 25/1 @ Victor Chandler
Craig Parry to win e/w 25/1 @ Victor Chandler
Brett Rumford to win e/w 25/1 @ Victor Chandler or First Stake

Will have 72-hole matchup plays soon

 

[Stanley]

72-hole plays:

Brandel Chamblee to beat Matt Kuchar -111 @ First Stake [3 units]
Peter Senior to beat Rodger Davis -133 @ Easybets
Kenny Druce to beat Ted Tryba -111 @ First Stake [2 units]
Shane Tait to beat Scott Hend -115 @ DAS [3 units]
Peter O'Malley to beat Jarrod Moseley -125 @ First Stake [3 units]
Craig Parry to beat Adam Scott -111 @ First Stake

 

[Ian]

Stan
Nice to see lots of plays at Firststake

Haven't checked if Bowmans are offering the same prices after the takeover

 

[Stanley]

2nd round plays:

Wayne Riley to beat Justin Cooper +100 @ DAS [3 units]
James Kennedy to beat Robin Goodey -103 @ DAS [3 units]
Brett Rumford to beat Adam Scott -103 @ DAS [3 units]
Rodger Davis to beat Stuart Bouvier -103 @ DAS [3 units]
Jason Ashcroft to beat Paul Marantz -103 @ DAS [3 units]

After the 1st round the 72-hole plays currently stand 3-3-0: Chamblee/Kuchar 2 down; Senior/Davis 2 up; Druce/Tryba 1 up; Tait/Hend 2 down; O'Malley/Moseley 1 up; Parry/Scott 1 down. Very close, with the first two probably decided after 36 holes.

 

[Ian]

Stan - coming out all guns blazing all those 3 pointers!!
Riley 1st round leader 4 clear of Hend

However Rumford 4 behind O'Malley,
Guilty of forcing a play here, was convinced Rumford and O'Hern would go well (they haven't started well) and tried to find matchups for them with no really convincing argument against the opponent luckily didn't play O'Hern at all!!

 

[Ian]

Both bets settled by the weekend
Riley beats Hend
O'Malley beats Rumford
You win some you lose some
Still don't know why I put up the Rumford bet
personally don't even have an account at Paddy Power so have made a profit on the Riley bet

 

[AussieVamp2]

Sorry guys, nothing from me after last week's chokefest. Sheesh.

Also, I will admit, I went out drinking at the casino when I would have been looking at the golf stuff, so beer and scotch not conducive to hard stuff like golf

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 4-1-0 and +8.91 units

Good day to back the dogs as the only loser is Davis by a single shot to Bouvier who closed with three straight birdies to inflict the loss

Elsewhere, Riley won by five, Kennedy by four, Rumford by one and Ashcroft by seven.

Four 72-hole plays were concluded at the cut, with one in dramatic fashion: Parry was disqualified was signing for an incorrect score in the 1st round. But such the honor in this game that even though no-one noticed it, he notified officials the following morning when he saw his name on the leaderboard at three-under-par not two-under. First time he's been disqualified in his career and you have to applaud such honesty, but this was a double loss as he was one of the outright picks as well

Remember having Padraig Harrington as a double-pick when he was controversially disqualified in the B&H! Anyway, Parry was a loser as was Chamblee to Kuchar, the margin five shots. The other two to be decided were a two-shot win for Peter Senior and a tie between Tait and Hend which is judged as a dead-heat by DAS rather than a loss. In the two remaining plays, Druce is tied with Tryba and O'Malley leads Moseley by two.

Only one of the outright plays survives to the weekend, Parry was disqualified and Rumford missed the cut by one, while O'Malley lies in 17th position, but just three shots out of a place finish.

 

[Stanley]

Just one 3rd round play so far, might have more later

Adam Scott to beat Aaron Baddeley -103 @ DAS [3 units]

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update: 0-0-1 and -0.04 units

Glad I opted for the -103 and dead-heat rule @ DAS rather than the +120 and ties lose available at a Euro book

Baddeley finished his round with an eagle and a birdie to make up the two-shot difference to Scott, but at least nothing worse than break even on the day. In the two remaining 72-hole plays, Druce now trails Tryba by six and O'Malley leads Moseley by five. The single remaining outright play improved though: O'Malley moved up to 5th place with one of a very small number of sub-par rounds; a long way behind the runaway leader, but a place finish would still bring the outright plays into profit for the week.

Just one play for the 4th round as well:

Peter O'Malley to beat Greg Norman +150 @ Easybets [2 units]

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 0-0-1 and -2.00 units for the day; 6-5-2 and +4.14 units for the week

O'Malley lost by two shots to playing partner Greg Norman for a disappointing two-unit loss on the day, though the matchups retained a decent profit, due to the success in the 2nd round. The two remaining 72-hole plays were split: Druce lost to Tryba by seven, the same margin that O'Malley beat to Moseley.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

O'Malley's 73 dropped him out of the place finishes to 7th so with the Parry disqualification and Rumford missing the cut by one that's naught for six in Australia