Australian PGA

[Ian]

Different tour - same player as last week - Scott Laycock has now had 5 top 5s in his last 11 events in Japan, he is in the form of his life and returns home to home soil where he won last year - Centrebet have installed him at a measly 12/1 therefore the 40/1 that Stan James or Bet365 have on offer is simply too big

[This message has been edited by Ian (edited 11-12-2001).]

 

[turtle]

Just one so far.

O'Hern to beat Gow (centrebet)

[This message has been edited by turtle (edited 11-13-2001).]

 

[Stanley]

Preview & outright plays:

The long season has begun. This is really the start of the 2002 season as the PGA Tour of Australasia moves over to a calendar schedule. This side of Christmas, there are just two events: the Australian PGA Championship and the Holden Australian Open. Both appear twice on this season's schedule as they are replayed in November 2002. This is one of the oldest PGA Championships in the world, dating back to 1905, and typically boasts a strong field. It is the same this week even though it is unusually the season-opening event.

The venue is the Royal Queensland Golf Club which is hosting this event for the second consecutive year, having hosted the ANZ Players Championship for three years beforehand. There is therefore ample course form, though the typically tight course may not be as intimidating this time because of the recent wet weather. The forecast is fine, but the course should play longer and be less punishing off the tee. Mind you, there is an unusual local rule that comes into play off the 12th tee. The course borders the Brisbane River and the large bridge that spans it, the Gateway Bridge, also spans the course. Players have to drive under the bridge off the 12th tee, though they are entitled to replay their shot if they hit the construction. For an old-fashioned golf course, this is a very unusual sight.

The three selections for this event are Chris Riley, Scott Laycock and Rod Pampling. Ignoring the very short prices on Allenby and Appleby, Riley looks the best value of the US PGA Tour players on view this week. He has been in great form since finishing 2nd in the International with top-15 finishes in six of his last nine events. Importantly, this is not his first visit to Royal Queensland - Australian courses play very differently to those on the US PGA Tour - he finished 25th last year. He should certainly improve on that finish with his game at the moment.

Laycock is another in fine form on a foreign tour. He has finished no worse than 16 in his last eight tournaments on the Japan Tour, including three top-3 finishes in his last five events, and currently stands 12th on their Money List. He has improved from 63% of greens hit in regulation in 2000 to 70% this season, which is a huge jump, and he will need this level of ball-striking to compete around this course. He almost secured a top-5 finish last year, but he finished five shots out of that spot with a 3rd round 78; he looks to have a good chance to make amends this year.

Pampling has spent his Australian winter months on the Buy.com Tour and like the others, comes into this event in fine form. He secured eight top-5 finishes on Tour this season, including the Tour Championship, and secured his 2002 card for the PGA Tour by finishing 4th on the Money List. He has a good record on this course with top-20 finishes on each of his three visits, including 7th last time out, and with the course playing long, it should suit the big-hitting Pampling even more.

Outright plays:

Chris Riley to win 16/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds
Scott Laycock to win 33/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports [6 places]
Rod Pampling to win 33/1 e.w. @ Surrey, Sportingbet or Bet365

 

[Ian]

Second choice is Geoff Ogilvy - although out of form towards the end of the PGA tour - in fact ever since he secured his card earlier in the season - the reason for the choice is rather spurious - bizarrely when he has participated in a tours curtain raising event in the last 2 years he has finished 2/2/3 - lets hope he slightly improves on this trait - 40/1 Net Bet (6 places)

 

[Clive]

Chandler's 33/1 O'Hern was too big...as short as 10/1 elsewhere - plenty of 25/1 around at Ladbrokes

 

[Stanley]

72-hole plays:

Jarrod Moseley to beat Paul Gow -120 @ Camelot
Both have played sparingly on their Tours in the last two months with their cards safe for 2002. The difference is that Moseley has had two top-30 finishes from three events in that period, whereas Gow failed to reach the weekend in any of his three events

Chris Riley to beat Stephen Leaney -110 @ UKBetting [2 units]
Leaney has also played sparingly in the past few months, but when he has played he has not played particularly well. His last top-10 finish was at the Dutch Open in July and he has since missed as many cuts as he has made. He may be a former winner of the ANZ Players Championship (1999) on this course, but he is not in the same form as Riley

Craig Parry to beat Peter Lonard -111 @ Centrebet
Lonard bucks the trend in Australians taking a break before the start of this Tour. He has played on the European Tour in each of the last four weeks and that cannot be ideal preparation for this event. His form is arguably better than that of Parry who finished 7th in the Invensys Classic, but has otherwise missed five of his last six cuts, but the fact that Parry finished 3rd in 1999 and was in contention before signing for a wrong score last is enough reason to side with Parry. The fatigue factor for Lonard is crucial though

Lucas Parsons to beat Stephen Scahill -118 @ Centrebet [3 units]
Parsons showed great strength to break his slump - 13 missed cuts in 15 events - and make the cut in each of his last five events to secure his European Tour card for next season. He should be able to bring that renewed form into this event and on a course on which he has finished in the top-25 in his three visits. Scahill has not played since September and should be rusty by comparison

 

[Anders]

I'd take Scahill's young lady over Parsons'

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 11-13-2001).]

 

[Stanley]

I haven't seen her, but if it means he hasn't been practising his golf as much as he should, then I'll be happy as well

 

[Ian]

Always like a big priced outsider for a bit of fun and this weeks honorary recipient of the kiss of death and the weekend off is Kiwi Paul Devenport, twice a winner on the weak Canadian tour over the summer and 4th at the Vines last year 40/1 at Centrebet, 150/1 Sporting Odds

 

[Anders]

Stan - if I was Scahill, my golf game would be the second thing I'd focus on...

 

[Ian]

Come on then Anders at least show us something to look at!

 

[Anders]

Originally posted by Ian:
Come on then Anders at least show us something to look at!

LOL

I'll try but don't think I'll have much luck

I spotted Mr Scahill's delectable young thing when I was covering a Shell Cup cricket match in the holiday/boomtown destination of Mount Maunganui a couple of years back.
Suffice to say myself and Kelly Excelby of the BOP Times got little copy written that day; contenting ourselves instead with stints on the binoculars and walks around the parks.
I remember Simon Doull in particular giving us a hard time as we wandered near the pavilion for the umpteenth time ... "I take it you're keener on a photo than a quote," Doully yelled at us

Excelby, who is well schooled in these matters and therefore a fine companion for a day's cricket, told me Scahill met her in Canada where she used to be a very useful ice/figure skater.
Figure sure looked good to me

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Anders Would prefer you send her stateside in place of your bus load of "friends" LOL
Had to show pic to office personnel.They truely got kick out of it as did I.Would rate right up there with the funniest I have ever seen. Cheers

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Two of the four plays are decided at the cut and they are split. Moseley missed the cut by one and ended his tournament four shots behind Gow, while Parsons made the cut by one, but it was enough for the 3-unit play as Scahill failed to make the cut and finished two shots behind him. In the remaining plays, Riley trails Leaney by three and Parry leads Lonard by one. The outrights are not particularly impressive. Allenby named Pampling as his best rival for the title this week and the curse worked. He missed the cut. The other two selections made the cut by a single shot and lie in 51st place, nine shots behind Allenby.

 

[Ian]

At the halfway stage Ogilvy is still in with a good chance - there is one player overpriced by Betsmart Gleeson is on 5 under and the recent Q school winner might do well at 100/1

 

[Ian]

Give me a break - after Dredge 2nd (100/1) and Teshima 2nd (40/1) we can now add Ogilvy 2nd (40/1)

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 2-2-0 and +0.60 units

Parry recorded an easy eight-shot victory as Lonard slumped off the leaderboard in the final round, but the Riley-Leaney play is frustratingly graded a loss at UKBetting as they tie on 285 A small profit on the matchups, but not enough to cover the outrights

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Very poor week in the outrights. Riley and Laycock improved to 25th and 31st respectively, though they were never in contention for a place finish. Pampling missed the cut.

Australasian PGA Tour ytd
Matchups/props: 31-35; -10.98 units
Outright plays: 5-19; +64.38 units