Back-to-Back Road Games

[Senor Capper]

Every NFL team will have to deal with at least one back-to-back set of road games every season. However, not every squad is treated equally by the schedule makers as 75% of the league will play at least two sets of consecutive away contests during the 2016 campaign, while only eight teams have to deal with back-to-back road games only once this season.

Is there an effective way to handicap this scheduling situation by either backing teams in the opening game or fading them on the second leg of consecutive away contests?

Lets take a look back at last season to see if any of these trends are something to keep an eye on for the upcoming season.....

The league has cut down on the back-to-back road games from 2015 to 2016. Last season, there were 71 instances of teams having to play away from home in back-to-back weeks, including several times when clubs were scheduled to play three consecutive times on the highway. This season, that number drops to 68, which includes nine times when teams play division opponents in those back-to-back scenarios.

Traveling back to 2015, out of the 71 times in which teams played consecutive road games, 15 of them won each set (21%), while 24 lost back-to-back contests (34%). The teams that fared the best include Arizona, Carolina, Denver, and Seattle, all who won back-to-back away games twice. No surprise that two of them made the Super Bowl (Carolina and Denver), while Seattle and Arizona each were playoff teams. From an ATS perspective, none of the above teams compiled a 2-0 ATS record twice in those two-game sweeps, as the Panthers, Cardinals, and Seahawks all went 2-0 ATS in one set and 1-1 ATS in another set. In spite of not going 2-0 ATS twice, Denver went 3-0-1 ATS total in back-to-back road games, which included a push in an overtime win at Cleveland.

Among the worst teams in this scenario, Baltimore (sorry JACK), Cleveland, Jacksonville, and San Diego took the top honors. The Ravens went through a dismal campaign in 2015 which included the loss of quarterback Joe Flacco late in the season. However, Baltimore?s problems began earlier as it dropped a pair of back-to-back sets out west at Denver and Oakland, followed by defeats at San Francisco and Arizona. The only saving grace for the Ravens was the 2-0 ATS mark on the back-end of consecutive road games in the underdog role in close losses to the Cardinals and Dolphins.

The Chargers displayed no success when it came to hitting the road in back-to-back weeks, losing all four times. In September, San Diego traveled east to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog and lost, 24-19, but were blown out the following week in a 31-14 rout at Minnesota as two-point ?dogs. The Lightning Bolts dropped a pair of division games in December on the road in back-to-back weeks, but covered each time as a ?dog at Oakland and Denver.

Jacksonville actually had the rare honor of losing three straight road games in a three-week span, falling to New England, Indianapolis, and Tampa Bay. The Jaguars covered only once in this span as four-point ?dogs against the Colts, while allowing at least 38 points in the other two defeats. This season, Jacksonville avoided the dreaded run of three consecutive contests on the highway, but the Jags will play four games in a five-week span away from EverBank Field (Week 8-9, Week 11-12).

From an ATS standpoint, teams off an underdog victory on the front-end of a road back-to-back set stumbled to a 5-12 SU and 8-10-1 ATS record the following week in 2015. Underdogs that lost in the first game of consecutive away contests didn?t fare well in the next game on the highway, posting a 9-18 SU and 12-15 ATS mark. However, ?dogs of 9.5 points or more in the second straight road game coming off an away loss went 4-1 ATS last season, including Philadelphia?s upset of New England last December.


Is there a tie-in with totals related to teams playing back-to-back road contests?

Out of the 71 scenarios in which teams took the highway in consecutive weeks in 2015, the most common total trend was OVER/UNDER 21 times, followed by UNDER/UNDER 16 times. Only 14 times out of 71 did a team cash the OVER in consecutive road games, as Carolina was the only team to do so twice. Out of the 34 instances in which squads cashed the OVER in the first week, the UNDER hit 20 times in the second week last season.

Four of eight playoff teams from last season will play one back-to-back road set in 2016, including the Panthers, Chiefs, Vikings, and Seahawks. Carolina heads to the West Coast in consecutive weeks in late November to battle Oakland and Seattle, while the Seahawks will have back-to-back tough tests at Arizona and New Orleans in Week 7 and 8.

Ten clubs head out of town for three sets of consecutive road games this season, but only one of those teams travel to the same destination in back-to-back weeks. The Ravens drew the Giants and Jets in Week 6 and 7 at Met Life Stadium, but finish up the season at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati the final two weeks. Oakland and Miami each travel cross-country for a back-to-back set, but will remain on that coast for those two games (Raiders battle the Jaguars and Buccaneers in October, while the Dolphins take on the Chargers and Rams in November).

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[BGFalcon]

Thanks for sharing Kevin Rogers' article. I follow him on Twitter but he didn't post this article on there.

 

[Senor Capper]

He's on my Twitter too....

He's on my Twitter too....

He has two others ...Primetime Cheat Sheet and Time Zone Trends that are worth the read too.

 

[Senor Capper]

Primetime Cheat Sheet

Primetime Cheat Sheet




The NFL schedule showcases 33 games a season in which teams play on either Monday or Thursday nights, messing with normal routines when these squads are accustomed to playing on Sundays. There are advantages to go against these clubs playing on fewer rest with the case of Mondays, while extra rest for teams taking the field on Thursdays are actually good bets the following week. Let?s take a look at several angles to attack in preparation for the 2016 campaign.

Looking back at the last two seasons of data for Monday and Thursday contests, there were a few things that stuck out. Home favorites on Monday night were horrible, posting a 5-17-1 ATS record since 2014, including a 2-11-1 ATS mark this past season. These chalky home teams actually compiled a 7-7 SU mark, but all three double-digit favorites failed to cover (Week 4 ? Seattle vs. Detroit, Week 7 ? Arizona vs. Baltimore, Week 10 ? Cincinnati vs. Houston). Only three teams were listed as home underdogs on Monday night in 2015, with the Falcons and 49ers winning outright in Week 1, while the Dolphins fell to the Giants in Week 14.

There wasn?t much of an advantage backing teams off a Monday night home game in 2015, as these squads went 8-8 SU and 8-7-1 ATS last season. However, a profitable angle the last two seasons involving Monday night home teams was going against them the following week if they lost on Monday. Teams in this situation have posted a 6-12 SU and 8-10 ATS record since 2014, although this trend went 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS last season.

Flipping to road teams who were off a Monday night game in 2015, these squads put together a barely profitable 9-8 SU/ATS mark. However, if you backed home underdogs that just played a Monday night road contest, these teams covered in four of five opportunities, including outright victories by Pittsburgh (Week 6 vs. Arizona), Indianapolis (Week 9 vs. Denver), and Houston (Week 11 vs. N.Y. Jets). This season, there are three early opportunities for this situation with Los Angeles (Week 2 vs. Seattle), Philadelphia (Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh), and Atlanta (Week 4 vs. Carolina) all falling into this category.

In 2014, road teams that won on Monday night put together an amazing 0-10 ATS record the following game, while only one of those teams (Philadelphia) actually won straight-up. That number improved last season as these away squads followed up a Monday victory with a 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS mark, although only one of those teams pulled off back-to-back road wins (Chicago at San Diego on Monday, followed by an upset of St. Louis).

From a totals perspective, the ?under? hit in 12 of 17 Monday night games in 2015, including a 4-1 mark to the ?under? in games with totals of 49 or higher. The most common side-total combination that cashed last season on Mondays was the Underdog-Under duo, which came through 10 times.

Shifting gears to Thursday, home teams that played on this day of the week compiled a 10-8 SU and 7-10-1 ATS record. That includes New England holding off Pittsburgh in the season opener, 28-21 as both teams were obviously rested, while Detroit and Dallas split their games in Thanksgiving Day action.

One stat that sticks out is how these home squads fared the next week in the role of a road underdog, posting an impressive 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS record. Among those teams that won as a highway ?dog include the Giants (Week 4 at Buffalo), Saints (Week 7 at Indianapolis), and Rams (Week 16 at Seattle), all clubs that were receiving at least 5 ? points.

Listed below are the seven potential situations in 2016 for road underdogs coming off a Thursday night home game.

2016 Qualifiers

Week Matchup
5 Cincinnati at Dallas
6 San Francisco at Buffalo
7 San Diego at Atlanta
8 Green Bay at Atlanta
11 Tampa Bay at Kansas City
13 Carolina at Seattle
14 Minnesota at Jacksonville


This season, eight teams will play on Monday night twice (Eagles, Jets, Redskins, Bears, Panthers, Giants, Vikings, and Texans), while no team will be showcased on Monday more than two times. Four squads will appear twice in Thursday action (Giants, Rams, Vikings, and Cowboys), but only New York and Los Angeles will participate in a pair of Thursday night games as Minnesota and Dallas each play one Thursday night contest and take the field on Thanksgiving afternoon.

Listed below is each team?s record in primetime action since 2006 and their record in parentheses from last season. The Cardinals and Broncos each were undefeated under the lights in 2015 as Arizona will appear on primetime in four games this season, including three at University of Phoenix Stadium.

 

[Senor Capper]

Time Zone Trends

Time Zone Trends



There isn?t a great deal of travel in the NFL compared to the NBA, MLB, and NHL due to the length of the season. However, flying across the country for a Sunday afternoon game isn?t the easiest task as many of these teams going either from the east coast to west coast or vice versa have struggled. The numbers were very telling last season that these teams struggled from a straight-up standpoint, but did those numbers translate from the against the spread perspective?

For the purposes of this discussion, ten teams that play in the Central and Mountain Time Zones were not included since they never travel more than two time zones during the season. These teams include the Bears, Cowboys, Broncos, Packers, Texans, Colts, Chiefs, Vikings, Saints, and Titans. The Cardinals are the exception to the rule since the state of Arizona doesn?t observe Daylight Savings Time as September through November this team plays on Pacific Time at home. From November through January, the Cardinals are on Mountain Time, so we?ll include them as one of the 22 teams that can travel three time zones.

In 2015, teams that play in the Eastern Time Zone traveled three time zones 16 times, as these clubs won straight-up only four times. However, these squads posted an 8-8 ATS record, as the only team that won twice out west was Cincinnati, who beat Oakland and San Francisco, while covering in a loss at Arizona. East coast teams that were listed as favorites compiled a 2-4 SU/ATS mark, but the underdogs struggled with a 2-8 SU record in spite of covering six of 10 times.

Flipping it around with the five teams that traveled from west to east (Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers, 49ers, and Seahawks), those squads put together a 6-10 SU and 9-6-1 ATS record in 16 opportunities last season. The ?over? hit in 11 of 16 games, as the Cardinals and 49ers each went 3-1 to the ?over? when traveling to the east coast. San Francisco was winless in four trips to the east coast, falling to the Steelers, Giants, Browns, and Lions with three of those defeats coming by double-digits.

This season, there are 43 situations in which teams travel three time zones, but that number has been jacked up due to the AFC East facing the NFC West and the NFC South taking on the AFC West in interconference play. With the Rams moving from St. Louis to Los Angeles this season, that makes for more opportunities of teams traveling across the country. The Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers all travel to the east coast four times each in 2016, while the Seahawks venture to the east coast for three contests.

The Buccaneers avoided long road trips in 2015, but Tampa Bay heads west for three separate trips this season. In Week 2, Tampa Bay travels to Arizona, one week after the Cardinals host the Patriots. The Bucs venture to California twice in a seven-week span, going to San Francisco in Week 7 and San Diego in Week 13. The Falcons also have it rough with three games on the west coast, including twice to the Golden State. Atlanta heads to Oakland in Week 2 and Los Angeles in Week 14, while making a trek to Seattle in Week 6 one week following a trip to face the defending champion Broncos in Denver.

Three times in 2016 teams will play consecutive games on the opposite coast, but all will likely remain there for those two weeks. The Panthers head west in Week 12 to battle the Raiders in Oakland, followed by a playoff rematch in Week 13 at Seattle. The Raiders travel to Florida for back-to-back games in Weeks 7 and 8 against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, while the Dolphins go to California for contests against the Chargers in Week 10 and the Rams in Week 11.

Not one team in the AFC North (Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Steelers) travels more than two time zones this season. The Giants are the only NFC East squad that doesn?t venture west of Texas, but New York battles Los Angeles in London in Week 7 (Cowboys excluded being in Central Time Zone).

As the Rams return to Los Angeles for the first time since 1994, the landscape of travel changes with no more trips to St. Louis. Four eastern teams make the longer trip from what would have been eastern Missouri to southern California this season with the Rams? move as the Bills (Week 5), Panthers (Week 9), Dolphins (Week 11), and Falcons (Week 14) all travel to Los Angeles this season.