Fundamentals, technical and systems, situational, valuist, contrarian, etc. There was a crisp and insightful discussion of these handicapping methods in the General Forum in May. I'm a hard working capper that tries to incorporate as many of these approaches and consider as many of these factors as possible in assessing every game on the card (although the databases I currently access would only merit the status of a hard working novice in generating technical trends I might like to know about). But over the course of a long season, a situational analysis has been the foundation that has served me best.
The best illustration that comes to mind from last year was when the Jets travelled to Oakland in the first round of the playoffs. I was rooting for the Jets to beat Oakland in the regular season closer only because of the situation it would set up. In that playoff game (in which matchups have to rise in the capping hierarchy), maybe you could have made a fundamental case for matchups favoring one team or the other. I think the Jets chances were approaching off the charts status in some technical trends. But I think you had the tail wagging the dog in that game unless you asked who had a decided advantage, off a week of coaching and distasteful film study, if the Jets come back across the country to Oakland's house for an even bigger game in just six days, to try to get Oakland to take another whipping and like it, unless you thought Oakland was in the throes of a total implosion or the Jets were clearly superior?
That illustration is obviously an extreme situation, but that added to the eye-popping confidence when it arrived on the doorstep. In week in and week out contexts, the statistical trends may be pointing strongly to one team, but I'll be poking around with theories that may account for the trends in an effort to be better prepared to try and recognize an exception to the rule that is at least strong enough to lay off a game, and possibly go the other way.
Lastly, INFORMATION is critical in identifying a situation or context or spot, and anticipating how a team is likely to handle that spot. The real clunkers for me are much more often a case of something I didn't know rather than something I didn't consider. The internet and Madjacks and hard work can be the source of my salvation there.
Two experienced cappers can look at the same situation and information and be convinced it supports exactly opposite results. It may be as much an art as it is a science. No one worth listening to will tell you it's easy. But I'm glad it's back.
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In capping a long-term outcome, I'd say the valuist approach rises in the hierarchy of capping methods. I am playing these for 1* each:
Baltimore Under 7.5 Wins (-165 @ Infinity)
The fall of the former champs appears likely to continue after the salary cap purge, which took the Dallas and San Francisco franchises deep below a .500 record . . .The defensive line and secondary have been gutted, receiving targets are gone, and the quarterback carousel continues . . . I am not particularly impressed with the coaching or character of this team as it tries to rely on a few playmakers to silence the skeptics.
Tennessee Over 8.5 Wins (-130 @ Infinity)
This team has playmakers that should be motivated to reverse the injury riddled campaign of 2001 . . . The division appears to be one of the weakest and the schedule appears favorable . . . A team and a coach worthy of respect . . . A winning record gets the money.
Indianapolis To Win AFC South (+150 @ Infinity)
It appears I'll be in the minority with this one here at the ranch . . . I like the chances of Tony Dungy righting this ship this year, and on the field it has to start with plugging a porous secondary . . .I suspect I have a greater belief than most in Peyton Manning's skills, resiliency and ability to keep the offense in gear . . . While the exhibition season means nothing, I was seeing and hearing what I wanted and expected over the course thereof . . . While it was not my original intention, this play may be a nice hedge with the Tennessee pick, since at least one of these two teams should emerge as a well situated playoff team. In that regard, I much prefer this wager to Over 9.5 Wins (-135 @ Olympic).
Cleveland To Win AFC North (5/1 @ Olympic)
I'm not sold on Pittsburgh's resiliency or the prospects of Kordell Stewart matching his play from last year. If Pittsburgh stumbles, I think this team will be yapping at their heels. I may be ahead of the curve with this young, talented and well-coached team, but that is generally a better ride than being late to the dance. On the other hand, I don't think they have a nucleus of hungry veterans to carry them very far beyond their division if they do taste some success.
New England to Win AFC (9/1 @ Olympic)
I certainly expect New England will get a taste of what a tough league this is (they were not and are not THAT good), and they may experience a good measure of it in their own division. On the other hand, I think they exemplified winning games as a team and have shown signs of resolve that has me thinking they are not in over their heads. If they can make the AFC playoffs, I am not yet sold on or impressed by the other contenders, either individually or as a group. Of course it's a longshot, but I don't think this team is taking other teams lightly and they should not be lightly regarded, either.
GL
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Don't believe everything you think.
The best illustration that comes to mind from last year was when the Jets travelled to Oakland in the first round of the playoffs. I was rooting for the Jets to beat Oakland in the regular season closer only because of the situation it would set up. In that playoff game (in which matchups have to rise in the capping hierarchy), maybe you could have made a fundamental case for matchups favoring one team or the other. I think the Jets chances were approaching off the charts status in some technical trends. But I think you had the tail wagging the dog in that game unless you asked who had a decided advantage, off a week of coaching and distasteful film study, if the Jets come back across the country to Oakland's house for an even bigger game in just six days, to try to get Oakland to take another whipping and like it, unless you thought Oakland was in the throes of a total implosion or the Jets were clearly superior?
That illustration is obviously an extreme situation, but that added to the eye-popping confidence when it arrived on the doorstep. In week in and week out contexts, the statistical trends may be pointing strongly to one team, but I'll be poking around with theories that may account for the trends in an effort to be better prepared to try and recognize an exception to the rule that is at least strong enough to lay off a game, and possibly go the other way.
Lastly, INFORMATION is critical in identifying a situation or context or spot, and anticipating how a team is likely to handle that spot. The real clunkers for me are much more often a case of something I didn't know rather than something I didn't consider. The internet and Madjacks and hard work can be the source of my salvation there.
Two experienced cappers can look at the same situation and information and be convinced it supports exactly opposite results. It may be as much an art as it is a science. No one worth listening to will tell you it's easy. But I'm glad it's back.
---------- ---------- ----------
In capping a long-term outcome, I'd say the valuist approach rises in the hierarchy of capping methods. I am playing these for 1* each:
Baltimore Under 7.5 Wins (-165 @ Infinity)
The fall of the former champs appears likely to continue after the salary cap purge, which took the Dallas and San Francisco franchises deep below a .500 record . . .The defensive line and secondary have been gutted, receiving targets are gone, and the quarterback carousel continues . . . I am not particularly impressed with the coaching or character of this team as it tries to rely on a few playmakers to silence the skeptics.
Tennessee Over 8.5 Wins (-130 @ Infinity)
This team has playmakers that should be motivated to reverse the injury riddled campaign of 2001 . . . The division appears to be one of the weakest and the schedule appears favorable . . . A team and a coach worthy of respect . . . A winning record gets the money.
Indianapolis To Win AFC South (+150 @ Infinity)
It appears I'll be in the minority with this one here at the ranch . . . I like the chances of Tony Dungy righting this ship this year, and on the field it has to start with plugging a porous secondary . . .I suspect I have a greater belief than most in Peyton Manning's skills, resiliency and ability to keep the offense in gear . . . While the exhibition season means nothing, I was seeing and hearing what I wanted and expected over the course thereof . . . While it was not my original intention, this play may be a nice hedge with the Tennessee pick, since at least one of these two teams should emerge as a well situated playoff team. In that regard, I much prefer this wager to Over 9.5 Wins (-135 @ Olympic).
Cleveland To Win AFC North (5/1 @ Olympic)
I'm not sold on Pittsburgh's resiliency or the prospects of Kordell Stewart matching his play from last year. If Pittsburgh stumbles, I think this team will be yapping at their heels. I may be ahead of the curve with this young, talented and well-coached team, but that is generally a better ride than being late to the dance. On the other hand, I don't think they have a nucleus of hungry veterans to carry them very far beyond their division if they do taste some success.
New England to Win AFC (9/1 @ Olympic)
I certainly expect New England will get a taste of what a tough league this is (they were not and are not THAT good), and they may experience a good measure of it in their own division. On the other hand, I think they exemplified winning games as a team and have shown signs of resolve that has me thinking they are not in over their heads. If they can make the AFC playoffs, I am not yet sold on or impressed by the other contenders, either individually or as a group. Of course it's a longshot, but I don't think this team is taking other teams lightly and they should not be lightly regarded, either.
GL
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Don't believe everything you think.
