Bad weather and the effect on totals

[saint]

I think the usual thought is that heavy rain/wind lends games to go towards the under, but is that what actually happens?


I have a very big play on the over in the Carolina/VT game but the forecast is for 1-2 inches of rain and winds up to 30mph. Does that always mean the under is more likely? Or with sloppier play does it mean more points. I think it really hurts Carolina's chances of winning because so much of the offense relies on speed and quick passes. If Elijah Hood is out (questionable, concussion) I'm thinking maybe I should buy back my over, eat the juice, and maybe play VT on the ML. The other part of me says that both offenses can put up big points and I should leave it be.

The same for the NC State total- last I looked it was 64ish. That's a lot of points in shitty weather but I don't know how much it will impact things.

Thoughts?

 

[hawkeye]

I think wind effects totals more. Rain not so much as it sometimes leads to more def pts because of fumbles etc. gl

 

[MadJack]

I think wind effects totals more. Rain not so much as it sometimes leads to more def pts because of fumbles etc. gl

I agree with you but this isn't normal rain, it's a shit storm. :0003

VT/UNC opened at 66.5 and now 58? I wonder why this line moved so much and the other teams being hit with the same weather, not so much?

I prefer staying away from weather affected games because like yyz always said, "you can't handicap the bounce".

Pass

 

[hawkeye]

underground.com is a good place to check weahter for college fb games--gl

 

[#cruncher]

I was living in the Charleston area (Goose Creek) when Hurricane Hugo came through in the late 80's. What a mess. I'm sure this will be nothing like that. If I remember correctly Charleston had to replace something like several thousand telephone poles because of all the tornadoes spawned by the hurricane. I think more people were killed in chain saw accidents after it was over than during the storm.

 

[Riff-Raff]

I was actually thinking under for this game, but will wait and see what the weather does first..... VTech has the #9 defense, NCarolina has been a scoring machine, but due to slow down a bit and think Hokies will be the ones to do it.

An old gambler once told me to bet the Under in Rain and Wind, sloppy conditions will affect the passing game forcing both teams to run the ball and move the clock. Bet the Over in Snow because Defenses can't set feet and big edge goes to offense.

 

[saint]

I agree with you but this isn't normal rain, it's a shit storm. :0003

VT/UNC opened at 66.5 and now 58? I wonder why this line moved so much and the other teams being hit with the same weather, not so much?

Thank you!! This is driving me nuts. Why wasn't the state Notre dame line dropped 6 points? The stadiums are 30mi apart. I can't for the life of me figure it out. You are correct in that a pass it's probably the best play. I don't put as much stock in Virginia Tech's defensive rating when it includes games against Liberty, ECU and BC.

 

[MadJack]

Did you buy the bet back? Did you play the NCST under? You were considering doing both is why I asked. I'm kicking my own ass for not playing under in both games. :facepalm:

 

[airportis]

a few years ago I think maybe fletcher? or someone else not sure but they used to post some useful weather info.

a little late now, but what I always remember from that post and apply it to my capping is looking at the wind more than anything. especially teams that like to pass a lot. over 15mph wind can start screwing with the pass game. also the wind direction. I know Saint made a thread on VT ML where someone said something about UNC qb having the wind to his back, but I looked at the stadium layout and the wind direction forecast and it was going sideline to sideline not endzone to endzone, so it will have been a cross wind which is really no good for anything.

heavy rain can also keep the number down, obviously, because the field just becomes a swamp.

a little rain though and it can be very good for high scoring games because it can trouble the defense a lot. a slippery but totally playable field is going to help the offense. The WRs know where they are going and when they are going to cut. the defense has to react and without solid footing it makes it a lot harder.

I took a look and play on VT when they were about +2 thanks to saints post. I think they wound up going off at -2.5 or something, and when I saw that big move I felt really confident before the game even started.

 

[yyz]

This was the last game I let the weather influence a wager. I made the largest bet of my life at the time on the "under", because the weather was so shitty.

It went over.


http://beargoggleson.com/2013/10/31...day-night-football-halloween-game-intro-1994/

 

[saint]

Did you buy the bet back? Did you play the NCST under? You were considering doing both is why I asked. I'm kicking my own ass for not playing under in both games. :facepalm:

Like a dumbass I didn't but I did play 1H under to sort of hedge. I even watched the NC State game to know what the weather was going to be like in Chapel Hill. It's one of those scenarios where it looks so obvious that the under will win I was afraid to play it.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Thank you!! This is driving me nuts. Why wasn't the state Notre dame line dropped 6 points? The stadiums are 30mi apart. I can't for the life of me figure it out. You are correct in that a pass it's probably the best play. I don't put as much stock in Virginia Tech's defensive rating when it includes games against Liberty, ECU and BC.

I guess their defensive rating was better than advertised. Now they get the Orange. Should cover this spread fairly easy.

 

[BuddyWright]

I think wind effects totals more. Rain not so much as it sometimes leads to more def pts because of fumbles etc. gl

I think your right here hawkeye...at least it has been my experience that the WIND is a more overiding factor in lowering the score.

 

[saint]

I guess their defensive rating was better than advertised. Now they get the Orange. Should cover this spread fairly easy.

Absolutely zero can be gained from evaluating the game last week. I was there in the 30 mph wind and driving rain. 9 inches of rain on Saturday. VT limited mistakes and that was the difference. Other than that the game provides zero capping value going forward other than creating very strong value on Carolina this week.

 

[BuddyWright]

Absolutely zero can be gained from evaluating the game last week. I was there in the 30 mph wind and driving rain. 9 inches of rain on Saturday. VT limited mistakes and that was the difference. Other than that the game provides zero capping value going forward other than creating very strong value on Carolina this week.

Your right saint not too much capping value in that nightmare of conditions...lol....you can't handicapp the weather unless you are a big fan of one side it is always better to just find another game to bet on. In my opinion