Ballantine's Championship

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (4pts):

Alexander Noren to beat George Coetzee +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ William Hill and Boyle Sports]
Backing Noren to continue his good form. After the Trophee Hassan II, he spent a few days practising with his coach and then nine days practising in Thailand as he got himself ready for this Asian Swing on the European Tour. After finishing 6th last week in China, which included a 3rd round 63, it is clearly reaping dividends. With Coetzee finishing in 4th, his form is also impressive, but the South African has never played this course previously. By contrast, Noren was the 54-hole leader last year (he finished 5th) so this course clearly suits his game.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Kim K tb Bae +110; Jimenez tb Poulter +138; Scott tb Coetzee -163; Scott tb Bae -110; Jimenez tb Olesen -120; Donaldson tb Foster -150; Derksen tb Pratt -120; Jimenez tb Yang -120; Kruger tb Olesen -120; Fraser tb Olesen +110]

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Y.E. Yang(25/1) e.w.
Danny Willett(50/1) e.w.
Ross Fisher(80/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Adam Scott to beat Sang-Moon Bae -125 @ Stan James [also available @ BetVictor]
Wasn't sure about backing Scott in the first round yesterday given that he hadn't played in seven weeks, but despite opening with a double-bogey he shot an under-par round in difficult conditions and finished the day in the top-10. Playing in the warmer afternoon conditions tomorrow, he should be able to secure a good leaderboard position for the weekend. By contrast, Bae is down in 58th position, but given that he has finished mc, 57th and mc in the last three years here, it may not be such a surprise that he struggled. Scott has a 10-1 h2h record against Bae in strokeplay events and I can't see Bae making it close this week.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Kjeldsen tb Lahiri -125; Willett tb Wood -110; Coetzee tb Ramsay -125; Derksen tb Jamieson -125; Storm tb Lahiri -110]

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (6pts):

Gregory Havret to beat Shang-Hung Kao +100 @ 5Dimes
Simply don't understand this line. Okay, Kao is may be more used to the conditions as he is from Taiwan, but he ranks 1441st in the World Rankings; Havret is 111th. In his four Asian PGA Tour events this season, Kao has missed the cut three times and finished 53rd on the other occasion. He did get into a very good position, having started the day in 18th place and then was 3-under-par for his first nine holes, but then he returned home in 41 to make the cut with just two shots to spare. Havret is not in the best of form, but he still has three top-25 finishes in his last six starts and he really shouldn't need to be at his best to win this matchup.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Aguilar tb Wiesberger +100]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Adam Scott to beat Sang-Moon Bae -135 @ 5Dimes
Taking the same matchup as in round 2. Scott struggled on Friday, but he jumped 22 places up the leaderboard, so even though he can't win from position, he looks to be securing a high finish anyway. It has been over seven months since he finished outside the top-20 in a strokeplay event (and he is three shots outside that mark now), so again he should be expected to shoot a low score tomorrow. It will also help that it is forecast to be almost no wind, the first day that there has not been strong winds this week. Bae does have experience of playing in South Korea, but given that he ranks 134th in final round scoring average on the PGA Tour, the expectation is that he should not shoot as low a score as Scott.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Poulter tb Noren +100; Wall tb Jaidee -110; Poulter tb Yang -110; Wall tb Havret -111; Poulter tb Jimenez -125; Fisher R tb Jaidee -111; Yang tb Noren -120; Jamieson tb Pavan -105; Kjeldsen tb Lowry -125; Fisher R tb Wiratchant -125]

 

[sports student]

Stanley thanks for the outstanding selections the last couple of days, really appreciate the insight and the winners

 

[Stanley]

Thanks ... it's been a long and not very straight road back from a very poor West Coast Swing. Last week I gave up all the week's profit on the Sunday, hoping not to do the same today :mj09: