Baltimore +7.5 Ravens better win the game

Confidence

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Betting the Ravens on a presumed letdown and a ridiculous Monday night home dog stat is a cardinal sin. The Broncos will win this Game tonight and here is why.

All Raven backers are taking Baltimore + the points as a comfort zone, well they better hope the Ravens win the game straight up tonight because when you take a dog they usually win the game straight up.
The second sin a Raven bettor is breaking is betting on a BAD QB, and midway through the game, " I can't believe I bet on this pathetic Qb and team" You are taking a 3rd string Qb Redman who is trying to be a first stringer.

The third sin is taking the points thinking you have a 7.5 point lead at the start of the game. Scoring is up this year and look what the elite teams are scoring this year in the NFL. Look at the Raiders, Broncos, Pats, and Eagles, they do NOT STRUGGLE VS WEAK TEAMS THAT ARE LIVING OFF PAST REPUTATION. IE FLorida State in College.

THe final sin that a Raven bettor is breaking is some how assuming that the Broncos will be looking ahead. How does anybody know this information? Did the Broncos players say we don't really care about playing on MNF, we can't wait to play the chargers. I can tell you there is NO Better coach in the NFL than Shanahan at preparing his team mentally. Shanahan is the most competitive guy in the league and he did lose to Billick 2 years ago in the playoffs, he never forgets a loss and he will avenge the loss tonight.

If all of this doesen't convice a Raven backer, Denver is MULTI DIMENSIONAL and can run the ball down your throat and PASS THE BALL VS A YOUNG inexperienced secondary. I'll take Smith, Mcaffrey, Lelie, Sharpe over Baltimore DB's.
Baltimore can only win a game like this with a tremendous effort from Jamal Lewis, Denver can stop the run with Mcgloughton stuffing the middle and with 3 good run stuffing LB's Wilson, Mobley and Gold. Denver will jam the run and force Redman to try and beat us with his arm? Denver will confuse Redman all night and I look for Denver to cover this game.
Shanahan doesen't really care for Billick and this is a perfect opportunity for Payback for the defeat 2 years ago, in that game we had Frerotte at QB, they had Dilfer, Tonight we have Griese, 3 good running backs and they lost 7 of 11 starters on Defense and Quadry Ismail, and there big interior D line combo of Sam Adams and SIragusa.
 
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johnnyonthespot

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Excellent point . . .

Excellent point . . .

By my count, over the last 2 weeks, the spread has only come into play 8 out of 27 games (meaning only 8 times did a favored team win and fail to cover). So basically, there's a very compelling argument to only take an underdog when you're thinking they're going to win the game outright, not just "keep it close".
 

Valuist

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8 out of 27 is actually around 30%; not insignificant. And the majority of those spreads were 4.5 pts or less. I would guess when lines get over a TD, the spread comes into play considerably more. Just look at college football; the "you win you cover" angle just isn't good there because of the bigger lines. I was initially thinking Denver as the side but the more I look at it, the more I can envision a 17-10 type game.
 

jmizeus

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this game is starting to remind me of yesterdays no/detroit game!
yes i had detroit +8' and when i walked into the ralph and seen the line went to +9 i liked it even more-.think it went as high as 9'?
 

gardenweasel

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remind you of detroit?

remind you of detroit?

where`s joey harrington?...he moved the ball up and down the field all day....redman isn`t harrington...and denver isn`t an overrated new orleans club...the only thing that can make a difference here is a griese meltdown...the ravens can`t pull it off on their own....check out the starting lineups...then try and guess how hapless the raven back-ups are...everybody is over analyzing this game....
 

theGibber1

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nice write up, but i think there are a few holes...

better hope the Ravens win the game straight up tonight because when you take a dog they usually win the game straight up.

i dont agree with this statement.. that might have been true for alot of games this week.. but not the entire season..

the way most dogs cover are trash TDs in the 4th qtr..

this is why heavy favs are scary..

lets say your fave -7.5 is up by 17pts in the 3rd qtr.. and your feeling very good about your wager... the problem is, the fav isnt interested in covering the spread.. they want to run the clock out and avoid injury.. they dont try to score again. just the win is enough

in the meantime the team that is down in the fourth is going to try and punch it in all the way to the wire.. boom boom a field goal and a TD......game over, Denver is happy to win by a TD while the heavy fav bettors are tearing up their tickets..

i used to play mostly favs when i started capping.. i cant tell you how many times trash TDs blew winning tickets for me.....





The second sin a Raven bettor is breaking is betting on a BAD QB,

i do agree a team isnt going to win many games w/ out a good field general..... this does not mean the other team is a lock to cover..

Dallas beat the Rams yesterday and are 2-2 compared to the 0-4 Rams...

Pitt beat the Browns..


as far as emotional let downs....no, you dont know for sure.. but you try to get a feel.. teams are do for letdowns every now and then. good cappers can tell when those times are coming (me i just guess??) emotion has a big part in games and not using it as a capping tool is something i dont agree with..

Denver will win. they will probably win easy, but i am hoping for the 4th qtr cover...

though we dont agree, thanks for the info.. sharing thoughts and opinions is what this place is for..

good luck :D
 
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gardenweasel

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here`s hoping we`ll be watching anna nicole after halftime

here`s hoping we`ll be watching anna nicole after halftime

hopefully it`s over by then....as a fellow on another site said(thank`s rog)"she`s like watching a a punch drunk old ex-lineman in a blonde wig"........:nono: :confused: :p :D :D
 

cag

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Were on the same page with this. The way I plan to attack this game is treating it as two seperate games. ;)
I feel Den will come out blazing in the 1st half,:firing:
then start giving their regulars a rest in the second half.:sleep:
Thus I'm taking Denver 1st half and Ravens 2nd half, looking for that last minute garbage TD. :jump:
Anyway, that's what I'm doing tonight.
And a Bud :drinky:

GLTA
Carl
 

vchipsliu

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quote:
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this game is starting to remind me of yesterdays no/detroit game!

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To me, this game remind me of yesterday's oak/titans game !
The line was Oak-6.5 dropped to Oak-8.5 before gametime.
I know monday night home dogs took advantages in history.
But not this Ravens team. The Ravens are really BAD this year.
Denver will win at least a TD !!!

:nono:
 

acehistr8

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This is a duplicate of the Cincy-TB game to me.

People were saying how scary home dogs getting 7 are. Getting 8 even better! Oh yeah? Well not when you have a team like the Bungles/Ravens.

Denver even has the #1 Run D in the league. Are you really worried about Redman picking them apart through the air? Also think Denver has more offensive weapons than TB.

Therefore I line these games up similarly, 27-6 Denver.
 

theGibber1

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anyone else want to argue Denver wont be flat for this game?

im torn here, cause Denver is my fav team.. but i sure love money..

i want the cover, but i dont want them to get blown out.:shrug:

but the money helps:D
 
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