Baltimore Ravens not on my Super Bowl screen

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This week: AFC Tidbits from Week 8


Baltimore Ravens

Why are the Baltimore Ravens being ranked in the Top 5 in many NFL Power Ratings? I?m not seeing a Super Bowl contender here, on either side of the football. Joe Flacco doesn?t seem have much chemistry with his receivers. The offensive line isn?t giving Flacco time to throw downfield and the wide receivers are basically non-factors.

Anquan Boldin had a huge second half against his former team Arizona, but his big games have been the exception and not the rule. Defensively the pass rush is strong, but I?ve still got all kinds of questions about the Baltimore Ravens ability to cover receivers downfield when they don?t get to the opposing QB.

Why on earth is an aging plodder like Ricky Williams taking carries from Ray Rice? Why is this team so sloppy? Yes, the Baltimore Ravens rallied from down three touchdowns, but questions persist.



Buffalo Bills

The offense keeps getting better. The Bills are the 2011 shocker that isn?t coming back to earth. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was a tired retread who didn?t cut the mustard for a bad Bengals team. Fred Jackson was undrafted out of college. This offensive line was bottom five on paper. Head coach Chan Gailey was another tired retread, as was assistant Dave Wannstedt.

Luck has certainly been a factor ? the Buffalo Bills had been the only NFL team not to lose a fumble (the streak ended against Washington). The no-name receiving corps is really stepping up, whether it?s Namaan Roosevelt, Stevie Johnson, David Nelson or tight end Scott Chandler, who caught a pair of TD?s here.

The Buffalo Bills are tough to get off the field on third downs, even third and longs. I didn?t think this defense was capable of pitching a shutout, but nine sacks (they had five all year) go a long way towards accomplishing that feat. If this ?D? can play like this weekly basis, the sky is the limit.



Denver Broncos

Tim Tebow wasn?t very good in his starting debut last week before the late rally, completing four passes for 40 yards through the first 55 minutes of game action. Again, Tebow wasn?t very good (7-21 for 80 yards) against Detroit with Denver Broncos trailing 38-3 at the start of the fourth quarter.

Denver Broncos went 0-10 on third down conversions to open the game, a stat that speaks volumes about bad quarterback play. Tebow has taken a whopping 13 sacks in his two starts. Even with Champ Bailey finally healthy, the secondary continues to blow coverages.

The Denver Broncos did a decent job at the line of scrimmage. They weren?t pushed around up front, while both Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil had modest success rushing the passer. But until the secondary improves, good passing teams are going to force the Broncos to play from behind.



Indianapolis Colts

It?s amazing to think that the Indianapolis Colts special teams ? an area of weakness dating back to the Tony Dungy era ? still haven?t been fixed. They had three special teams penalties and a blocked punt in the first half. That?s no way for a winless team to get off the schnied.

The offense is really regressing, perhaps due to a lack of effort from the veteran receivers. Three first downs in the first half against a mediocre Titans defense is simply not acceptable. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark look like they?d rather be anywhere but here.

When you can?t cross midfield in a full half of football, clearly there?s something wrong. When Indy finally reached the red zone, Curtis Painter was timid, settling for a field goal while trailing by 20 in the second half. This is a passionless team. Don?t be fooled by the box score numbers that say Indy was competitive against Tennessee.



Jacksonville Jaguars

Let?s start giving some credit to Jack Del Rio?s defense. This is a bottom-5 offense ? lots of three-and-outs. The Jacksonville Jaguars don?t have much explosive big play ability and ranked dead last in numerous categories including yards per play and trips to the red zone.

The defense keeps the Jags hanging around, holding half of their opponents to 17 points or less. It was more of the same against Houston ? stifling receivers, stuffing the run, getting pressure on the QB. The Jacksonville Jaguars had forced an NFL best 28 ?three-and-outs? through last week and produced five more against the Texans.

Jacksonville Jaguars has some point spread potential for the back half of the season. They won?t be on TV again, aren?t going to the playoffs, play in a small market and playing pretty good defense.



Miami Dolphins

Matt Moore did some very positive things against the Giants. Instead of taking sacks, Moore escaped pressure and had four positive gains with his feet in the first half alone. Moore was savvy enough to look for the Miami Dolphins three legitimate weapons ? Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess and Reggie Bush.

The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks simply aren?t serviceable at the NFL level. Even with a decent pass rush (Cameron Wake is a monster, Jason Taylor still has something in the tank) receivers are running uncovered on nearly every passing play. Jimmy Wilson, a seventh round draft pick out of Montana making his first career start, was exploited repeatedly. Veteran Will Allen on the other side wasn?t much better.

Things got worse every time the Miami Dolphins blitzed, never reaching the QB and the corners killed in single coverage. Big injury was center Mike Pouncey down with a neck injury. The offense stopped moving after he got hurt. Richie Incognito was inactive, leaving the OL without two key contributors.



New England Patriots

Leigh Boddin certainly wasn?t a top notch NFL cornerback, but I?m not sure how cutting him is going to improve this struggling defense. The New England Patriots secondary got torched at Pittsburgh, particularly over the middle. On a yards-per-play basis, this is the single worst defense in the NFL through the first eight games.

New England lacks a speedy downfield receiving threat. The passing game, while dynamic for sure, is still missing some big play ability and physicality. These receivers simply aren?t getting separation against tight, man-to-man coverage. Where?s Ocho Cinco?

Brady is forced to dink and dunk to his running backs and tight ends. Crazy as it sounds with all of their 30+ point efforts, the Patriots don?t have a single downfield playmaker. This offensive line isn?t what it was during the championship runs. Very discouraging to see them manhandled.



Pittsburgh Steelers

After scoring opening drive TD?s in each of the last three weeks, the Pittsburgh Steelers came out of the gate clicking on all cylinders offensively. They marched down the field into the end zone for the fourth consecutive game.

Big Ben (Roethlisberger) is really in tremendous rhythm with his receiving corps; every bit the QB that Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers are these days. The Pittsburgh Steelers opened the game 5-5 on third downs conversions and finished with 10.

The veteran coaching staff devised a great game plan, keeping Brady off the field with a ball control offense. All five scoring drives lasted at least 10 plays. It was a confidence inspiring performance for a team needing to shed that ?old and slow? label defensively.
 

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Baltimore Ravens typify home/road change

Baltimore Ravens typify home/road change


Well, how about those Baltimore Ravens!

In back-to-back games they looked like world beaters, shutting down the New York Jets (34-17) and the Dallas Cowboys (29-14), covering both with ease. That put them at 3-0 both straight up and against the spread at home this season, including that opening day shellacking of the Steelers, 35-7.

Then again, a different Baltimore Ravens team can show up on the road, as we saw on Monday night in a 12-7 loss at Jacksonville Jaguars?as a 10-point road favorite! That?s common with some pro and college football teams as the home/road disparity in sports is often remarkable.

Look at the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle Seahawks started this season with two losses, both on the road, giving up 57 points. The Seattle Seahawks came home and got their first victory as a dog, allowing just 10 points.

Seattle is situated in the northwest, so road trips can be long affairs as when playing at Pittsburgh. The reverse is true, of course, when Seattle Seahawks are at home and many opponents have to travel a long way.

Their next four home games are against teams traveling quite a distance ? Baltimore, Washington D.C., Philadelphia and St. Louis. In fact, those last three games are part of a nice three-game home stand for Pete Carroll?s squad.

When they were a playoff team, the Seahawks went 9-3 SU/8-4 ATS at home covering two seasons, but 3-10 SU/4-9 ATS on the road during that same stretch. The offense on the road has been particularly pitiful this season, scoring 10, 6, 17 and 10 points.

Historically, the Seahawks have had an excellent home field edge with their outstanding fan base known as the "12th man." Seattle had a four-year run of 25-6 SU, 20-10-1 ATS in home games.

Naturally teams want to play better in front of the home folks. Part of it is pride and fans paying good money for entertainment. No team wants to send the locals home unhappy, like the Jaguars did last Monday night against the Ravens.

Jacksonville started winless on the road this season scoring 3, 10 and 13, but played like a very different team in beating the Titans and Ravens, the latter on national TV with the whole country watching. Home field combined with other incentives (rivalry, revenge, national TV, coaching changes) can make a team even more fired up.

Visiting teams have to spend time in airports, sleep in unfamiliar hotel rooms, have their sleeping patterns disrupted. Home teams get to spend the week working at their own practice facilities, sleeping in their own bed, eating home-cooked meals, driving to the stadium on familiar routes.

Any coach can get his players to give it their all in front of 60,000 screaming fans. The really good coaches can get their players to perform just as effectively on the road.

The Patriots under Bill Belichick have a history of playing well no matter where the venue, a sizzling run of 45-22 ATS on the road.

Many times young teams, or ones with new coaches, will play their best football at home, but look like a very different team on the road. New Orleans started 3-0 at home this season, but 2-2 away.

The Saints are a team built for speed on the artificial indoor carpet of the Superdome. The fast offense can be hindered on natural grass on the road, such as in a 23-10 win at Jacksonville and a 26-20 loss at Tampa Bay. Not much offense from one of the most explosive in the game.

It?s important from a handicapping angle to carefully break down home and road stats. The Detroit Lions just dropped two straight at home to the 49ers and Falcons. Road games at the Bears, Saints and Packers are on deck.

You can see why NFL teams play hard to secure the home-field edge for the playoffs. Sometimes who you?re playing is not as important as where.


 
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