Reasons to bet Miami:
They are the overall better team, should win straight up, and the points have only come into play on Monday night once this year.
The Bears are extremely banged up (O and D) and Urlacher and Traylor are both questionable.
Bears can't stop the run, and Ricky Williams is awesome.
Miller can't throw the ball over 20 yards.
Miami D = good, Bears O = bad (you do the math)
Anthony Thomas is out (not that he did much when he was in there).
MNF games tend to be blowouts, especially when it's a non-division matchup where the home team is clearly the superior one.
Miami is 7-4-1 ATS, Bears are 4-8
Reasons to bet Bears:
The one time points did come into play on Monday night, it was the last time the Bears were on MNF (lost 21-16 at the Rams as 10 point dogs).
Miami is legendary for having terrible Decembers (lost last weekend, are a combined 9-12 in December since 96, and almost all those years they were in first place heading into the month.)
Miami QB Fiedler is getting his first start after injury and will be rusty.
Bears have only lost by double digits 3 times this year out of 9 (2 to GB, and once to Minn)
Bears played Eagles, Rams, and Pats close and beat the Falcons
Of the two cases, I can defuse the reasons to bet the Bears more easily. The Rams, as they have shown since the Bears win, aren't really all that good, but the public perception was really high on them at the time, as they'd just won 4 in a row. Line really probably should have been 4 or 5, which is how it ended up. Miami does have terrible Decembers, as do the Bucs, but much moreso when they're playing on the road and in cold weather (as they were last week in Buffalo). Plus, I love trends, but I try not to put all that much stock into trends from year to year, especially when a team's makeup is quite a bit different than last year (Miami is completely different with Ricky Williams in there). Fiedler will be rusty, but Miami shouldn't even need him, as Williams should have a HUGE day. While the Bears have kept the majority of their games close, they're also getting more and more injuries seemingly by the hour, on both sides of the ball. Plus, now that the season is officially toast, you've got to wonder about motivation. The Bears did play the Eagles, Rams, and Pats close but Eagles and Pats games were at home (sort of) and as I said before I don't think the Rams are all that good. Bears did beat the Falcons but that was very early in the year when the Bears were relatively healthy, and they were a missed Feely FG away from losing that one anyway.
The total of 37.5 is very tempting towards the over, because somehow someway the Bears always seem to end up lucking their way into 20 points, and I know that the Bears D will give up at least 20. However, with the terrible O line the Bears have, I could easily see them getting shut down completely by Miami, who has a very good D. Also, right now both Bears QBs are hanging by a thread, and each of them could get knocked out with one shot, so there's a chance we might see Henry Burress tonight. Also, if this game's a blowout by halftime, Jauron may put in Burress anyway. All in all, I could definitely see something like a 28-6 route. I think the best strategy to take is probably Miami and the over (bought down to 37). I don't see any way that both of those will be losers (and they have a decent shot at both winning). The only way that both of those lose is if the Bears hold Miami to under 24 points (not likely) while at the same time scoring 14-17 points. If Miami wins in a route, like 28-3, then you get Miami -10, and if the Bears keep it close and lose 24-21, you've got your over. And if Miami wins 34-14, you've got both. What I'm thinking that I will do is put 4 units on Miami -9.5 (will buy it down), 4 on Miami/Chi over 37 (also bought down) and 1 unit on the Bears ML. Also a parlay on Miami and the over. Basically, the only way I get completely f'd is with something like a 17-14 or 10-7 or 13-10 Miami victory, but at least in those scenarios I'll have the Bears ML to root for.
GL to everyone.
They are the overall better team, should win straight up, and the points have only come into play on Monday night once this year.
The Bears are extremely banged up (O and D) and Urlacher and Traylor are both questionable.
Bears can't stop the run, and Ricky Williams is awesome.
Miller can't throw the ball over 20 yards.
Miami D = good, Bears O = bad (you do the math)
Anthony Thomas is out (not that he did much when he was in there).
MNF games tend to be blowouts, especially when it's a non-division matchup where the home team is clearly the superior one.
Miami is 7-4-1 ATS, Bears are 4-8
Reasons to bet Bears:
The one time points did come into play on Monday night, it was the last time the Bears were on MNF (lost 21-16 at the Rams as 10 point dogs).
Miami is legendary for having terrible Decembers (lost last weekend, are a combined 9-12 in December since 96, and almost all those years they were in first place heading into the month.)
Miami QB Fiedler is getting his first start after injury and will be rusty.
Bears have only lost by double digits 3 times this year out of 9 (2 to GB, and once to Minn)
Bears played Eagles, Rams, and Pats close and beat the Falcons
Of the two cases, I can defuse the reasons to bet the Bears more easily. The Rams, as they have shown since the Bears win, aren't really all that good, but the public perception was really high on them at the time, as they'd just won 4 in a row. Line really probably should have been 4 or 5, which is how it ended up. Miami does have terrible Decembers, as do the Bucs, but much moreso when they're playing on the road and in cold weather (as they were last week in Buffalo). Plus, I love trends, but I try not to put all that much stock into trends from year to year, especially when a team's makeup is quite a bit different than last year (Miami is completely different with Ricky Williams in there). Fiedler will be rusty, but Miami shouldn't even need him, as Williams should have a HUGE day. While the Bears have kept the majority of their games close, they're also getting more and more injuries seemingly by the hour, on both sides of the ball. Plus, now that the season is officially toast, you've got to wonder about motivation. The Bears did play the Eagles, Rams, and Pats close but Eagles and Pats games were at home (sort of) and as I said before I don't think the Rams are all that good. Bears did beat the Falcons but that was very early in the year when the Bears were relatively healthy, and they were a missed Feely FG away from losing that one anyway.
The total of 37.5 is very tempting towards the over, because somehow someway the Bears always seem to end up lucking their way into 20 points, and I know that the Bears D will give up at least 20. However, with the terrible O line the Bears have, I could easily see them getting shut down completely by Miami, who has a very good D. Also, right now both Bears QBs are hanging by a thread, and each of them could get knocked out with one shot, so there's a chance we might see Henry Burress tonight. Also, if this game's a blowout by halftime, Jauron may put in Burress anyway. All in all, I could definitely see something like a 28-6 route. I think the best strategy to take is probably Miami and the over (bought down to 37). I don't see any way that both of those will be losers (and they have a decent shot at both winning). The only way that both of those lose is if the Bears hold Miami to under 24 points (not likely) while at the same time scoring 14-17 points. If Miami wins in a route, like 28-3, then you get Miami -10, and if the Bears keep it close and lose 24-21, you've got your over. And if Miami wins 34-14, you've got both. What I'm thinking that I will do is put 4 units on Miami -9.5 (will buy it down), 4 on Miami/Chi over 37 (also bought down) and 1 unit on the Bears ML. Also a parlay on Miami and the over. Basically, the only way I get completely f'd is with something like a 17-14 or 10-7 or 13-10 Miami victory, but at least in those scenarios I'll have the Bears ML to root for.
GL to everyone.
