Bell Canadian Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Charles Howell to win 25/1 e.w. @ Tote
This is a tight course that requires accuracy off the tee and so that should rule out Howell straightaway, but he did finish in the top-10 in the PGA Championship around a tight course three weeks ago and is in good form. He had finished in the top-10 at the International the previous week and finished 21st in the NEC Invitational the week after the PGA Championship. He is a low as 12/1 elsewhere and so long as he keeps his drives on the fairway, he looks a very good player in a very ordinary field.

Chris Riley to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Victor Chandler
Riley is also not one of the more accurate drivers, but he is certainly one of the very best around the green and he is a good player for outright markets. He is not a very consistent player, but he has had two top-5 finishes in his last four starts, including against a very strong field in the NEC Invitational and he has won on Tour (2002 Reno-Tahoe Open). Funk also appeals on this course, but it has been a very long time since he won so sticking with Riley at the same odds.

Loren Roberts to win 50/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Roberts was also a winner last year (Texas Open), but had struggled this year with a niggling elbow injury until he took a month off. He said he needed to recharge his batteries and it certainly worked: he finished 7th in the PGA Championship on his return. This is another tight course and a much weaker field so this looks a decent price.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Tom Pernice to beat Guy Boros -111 @ BetandWin
Boros was a surprise contender for the Reno-Tahoe Open when he eventually finished 10th, but the Nationwide Tour player missed the cut last week. That is something that Pernice has done only once in his last six starts and the better player should win this match.

Glen Day to beat Robert Damron -111 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]
Day may have missed two of his last three cuts, but he had been 5th in the B.C. Open before that and returned back to form with a 13th place finish in the Deutsche Bank Championship last week (Damron was 68th). This tight course should suit him and when he does make a cut, he does tend to finish fairly high up the leaderboard.

Kevin Sutherland to beat Carl Paulson -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Sutherland has the better record in this event and holds a clear head-to-head lead over Paulson - 3-1-0 in the last three months and 11-3-0 in the last year. Sutherland is clearly the better player and should win this match.

Tim Petrovic to beat Grant Waite -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Waite has a good record in this event: he was 2nd to Tiger Woods in 2000 and 6th in 2002, but his form since that event has been miserable. In the 35 PGA and Nationwide Tour events since last year's Canadian Open, Waite has made the cut only ten times. It is no surprise that he has not finished ahead of Petrovic in any event in the last three months and trails 3-11-0 h2h over the past year.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

one outright
Verplank 9/1 to place @ Skybet (top 5)

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1 unit):

Hidemichi Tanaka to beat Aaron Baddeley -111 @ Ladbrokes
Tanaka missed his first cut since March (16 PGA Tour events) last week, but still finished four shots ahead of Baddeley whose best finish since March has been 33rd (The International). With narrow fairways on view this week, Baddeley should struggle to improve on that mark.

Kevin Sutherland to beat John Rollins -111 @ Ladbrokes and SIA
Opposing the defending champion as this is the first time that he has had that honour on this Tour. A missed cut in the PGA Championship and 67th in the limited-field NEC Invitational is not encouraging for Rollins; Sutherland is the more consistent player.

No 1st round plays.

 

[Stanley]

2nd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Mike Weir to beat Charles Howell -138 @ Five Dimes
Loren Roberts to beat Fred Funk -118 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Bob Tway to beat Glen Day -124 @ Five Dimes

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 2-1-0; +1.62 units

Weir/Howell LOST by 1
Roberts/Funk WON by 1
Tway/Day WON by 3

Final update:

Matchups: 5-1-0; +5.89 units

Pernice/Boros WON by 16
Day/Damron WON by 7
Sutherland/Paulson WON by 2
Petrovic/Waite WON by 5
Tanaka/Baddeley WON by 9
Sutherland/Rollins TIED (Lost)

18-holes: 2-1-0; +1.62 units

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Howell 14th
Riley 23rd
Roberts 8th

Profitable event, but had hoped for more. Howell had been the tournament leader after 36 holes and was in the joint lead with nine holes to play. He then dropped six shots in six holes! Riley and Roberts also started the final round in the top-10, but neither played well in the final round. Could have had the sweep in the matchups, but Sutherland bogeyed his last two holes to only tie with Rollins and that means a loss at Ladbrokes/SIA. Profitable event, but should have been much more.

PGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 126-78; +35.38 units
18-holes: 104-111; -38.21 units
Outrights: 30-84; +66.24 units

All Tours ytd
Matchups: 329-330; +153.46 units
18-holes: 260-241; -12.73 units
Outrights: 79-287; -1.59 units