Bell Canadian Open

[steved]

alright then, I will start...
Different from last week, only one first time winner in last 20 years..
1 ew Cink 40/1 (Bet365)..played well in PGA
0.5 ew Damron 125/1 (VChandler)..Ladbrokes go 50/1, though not entirely sure why..
0.5 ew Scherrer 150/1 (VChandler)..Exemption runs out this year for 2000 win..6th last week, lying 138th in money-list..just needs one more good finish to be safe from qualifying for next year..this week please...

 

[milpalm]

Not getting too heavily involved but have placed two small bets.
Howell 25/1 Bet365. The course should suit as it is long and has wide fairways. Had a top 20 finish in the PGA and was 3rd in the Reno-Tahoe Open.

Estes 33/1 Sportingodds. Has struggled a bit since his win but had a top 20 finish in the NEC. Estes has a good record in Canadian events.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

anyone else having probs accessing their bet365usa account????

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

outrights to place
Tway 12/1 (5 places) 5dimes
Hnatiuk 25/1 (4places) Oly

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Charles Howell to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365 or Sporting Odds
In great form and the move to Angus Glen should suit his game. With finishes of 22nd, 19th, 17th and 3rd in his last four starts, he is moving nicely into the form that was expected of him at the start of the season and he is hitting the ball a very long way at the moment. In the Reno-Tahoe Open, his drives averaged 326 yards. With the wide-open fairways at Angus Glen, he looks well-suited this week.

Mike Weir to win 33/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes (.5 units to win & .5 units to finish in the top-5), though available generally
Did look at Justin Leonard, but opted for the home player instead. His form is not good and he has yet to record a top-10 finish all season, despite having won in each of the last three seasons. But the move to the new venue is decisive. While the rest of the field try to acquaint themselves with a new course, Weir will be returning to his birthplace and to a course on which he won junior and amateur championships.

Steve Flesch to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler or BetInternet
Not expected to win this week, though he must win eventually, but he does come into this event in good form. His last three finishes have been 10th, 17th and 6th and he did finish 6th in this event last year. He is not regarded as one of the longest hitters, but in two of his last three starts, his drives have averaged over 300 yards and he looks a decent prospect to contend on this course at least.

 

[lostinamerica]

DTB:

I received an e-mail annonuncing that bet365 was revamping their site. Unfortunately, my computer has had problems accessing them via Internet Explorer or Netscape Communicator, while I have had no problem accessing with another computer in our office. My computer has seemed to have glitches of late with all the cookies and viruses and whatnots going about, and I assume this is more of the same. I'll work around the problem for a couple of weeks and hope it is a problem at their end before I look into it further.

I hope you return to your best form in short order.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks L.I.A Back into 365 but still can't get to far away from bathroom.

 

[milpalm]

While the rest of the field try to acquaint themselves with a new course, Weir will be returning to his birthplace and to a course on which he won junior and amateur championships.

I'm not sure if Weir won amateur events on this course as it opened in 1995. According to Dave Tindall of Sportinglife Weir hadn't played the full course until this week.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes all -115 @ 5dimes
Omeara over Sauers
Hart over Daly
Rollins over Sabbatini
Hnatiuk over Kutcher

 

[Stanley]

Milpalm, I read the info from Keith Elliott's book about Weir's winning championships on this course. Still rushing to catch up so I hadn't double-checked the info myself

However, I do know he has played this course before this week and he does like it. I remember watching the 2001 Canadian Skins on Sky Sports and it was held at this course. Vijay mopped up the cash in that event.

 

[milpalm]

The 2001 Telus Skins Game was played at Angus Glen but not on the South course which is used this week. Nevertheless I'm sure Mike Weir has more local knowledge than most of the field.

 

[Stanley]

Fair enough. Caught out again

It was the North course that was used last year. It was my first and only bet on a Skins game. Five Dimes offered matchups and I took Garcia over Duval. The guy had just won the British Open the day before and the champagne had been reported to be free-flowing on Duval's flight over the Atlantic. Easy money

Tindall is right. Weir has admitted to having never played the full 18 before Monday, but he had played holes "here and there" on the course.

And I can't find any sources to confirm Keith Elliott's claim that Weir won championships as an 18- and 20-year-old on this (or any other) Ontario course. What a waste of money!!

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Charles Howell to beat John Daly -149 @ Sporting Odds [2 units]
Steve Flesch to beat Len Mattiace -125 @ Five Dimes, though available generally
Brian Gay to beat Pat Perez -118 @ Easybets
Brent Geiberger to beat Adam Scott -111 @ BetandWin
Lee Janzen to beat Rory Sabbatini -118 @ Easybets
Loren Roberts to beat Graeme McDowell -125 @ Sporting Odds or Sportingbet

Still no time for explanation/reasons/excuses ...

 

[lostinamerica]

YTD ON ALL TOURS
Outrights: 20-120 (-10.01*)
Matchups: 60-56 (-4.11*)
3 Balls, Groups & Props: 20-28 (-1.90*)

I never made it over the hump.

Approximate wagers of 225*/33 weeks = 6.82* wagered per week.

Losses of (-16.01*)/225* = 7.12%. At least that is within the range of 11/10." I hope I've learned a useful thing or two.

With the NFL and NCAA football seasons to handicap, the Packers getting me geeked every week, and only the Ryder Cup left on the calendar of golf events of lasting importance, I'm not sure what kind of effort I'll make to contribute in this forum. I know I won't be risking 6.82* per week in posted plays. But I'll be hanging around, paying attention, dabbling at least, maybe looking to piggyback something sweet.

For this week, I'll try these outrights for 0.15* e.w.:
Weir(33/1)
Gamez(150/1)
Goosen(10/1)
Romero(30/1)
Thorpe(30/1)

And I'll add one more play for now.
The Ryder Cup
The Tie(9/1) for 1*
Why ask why?

There is not a better crew on any of the forums at Madjacks. I won't be boycotting the Masters in April.

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Not much to my liking and plays so far not looking good with Omeara and Tway shooting +5 ans +4 respectively opening rd.

Will play one 2nd rd match
Sabbatini -105 over Leggett @ Cascade

While normal mode is to short leaders,Sabbatina has been in this position twice this year with opening rds of 68 and 67 and has improved in 2nd rd in both with 67 and 64 so will give him a shot here.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Charles 'IOU' Howell might do it again eh?

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Howell/Daly Leads by 4
Flesch/Mattiace Leads by 4
Gay/Perez Trails by 1
Janzen/Sabbatini WON by 8
Roberts/McDowell All Square

Adam Scott didn't play this week.

Howell 7th
Weir 17th
Flesch 13th

With just one matchup decided at the cut and none of the outrights in a top-5 position, there is everything to play for at the weekend. Looks promising though!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

at the cut 2nd rd 0-1 72 holes 1-1

2nd rd
Sabbatini over Leggett Loss by double digits

72 holes all -115 @ 5dimes
Omeara over Sauers loss
Hart over Daly all square
Rollins over Sabbatini win
Hnatiuk over Kutcher canceled>Kutchar did not start

Outrights Tway cut Hnatiuk in 37th

With poor take on this tourney so far I should sit back but got some I'm liking today so will give it a go.

3rd rd
Chalmers -115 over Waite @ $plays
Senden -115 over Begay @ 5dimes
Pampling -110 over McDowell @ Cascade
Janzen +100 over McDowell @365 (ties lose)
Roberts -110 over K Jones @ 365 (ties lose)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

3rd rd results 4-1

3rd rd
Chalmers -115 over Waite @ $plays win
Senden -115 over Begay @ 5dimes loss by 1
Pampling -110 over McDowell @ Cascade win
Janzen +100 over McDowell @365 (ties lose) win
Roberts -110 over K Jones @ 365 (ties lose) win

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

4th rd plays
Got 3 matches with two things in common. Player has edge in ratings and significant edge in 4th rd scoring ave.

Pampling -125 over Jordan @ 365 (ties lose)
4th rd scoring ave ranks 61 vs 193

Estes -110 over Flesch
24th vs 150th

Geiberger -105 vs Daly
4th vs 137th

Would love to be wrong on Flesch and see him fire a 62 today!!
He's due. Right Stan