BellSouth Classic

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Padraig Harrington to win 16/1 e.w. @ Stan James, BlueSq and BetDirect
Was almost thrust into a playoff when Adam Scott found the water on the last hole at Sawgrass and though it meant yet another 2nd place finish for 'Pod' there is good reason to expect another strong performance this week. He finished in the top-10 here two years ago, as he did in the American Express Championship which was also held in Georgia last year, and he is a grinder. He never looked to have a chance of winning last week's event, particularly after being two-over-par early in his final round, but he kept trying to the end and it very nearly paid off. Can't ask much more of a selection.

Stewart Cink to finish in the top-five 7/1 @ SkyBet
The last two selections would probably require the leader to find water on the last hole for them to win as they have shown themselves to be rather brittle under pressure. A top-5 place seems the best option in this respect. No surprises with Cink as a selection - he has a house by the 14th fairway and will draw strong local support. He has had five top-10 finishes in the last six years and has been showing solid form this season. He should struggle to win, but should go much closer to a top-five finish.

Thomas Bjorn to finish in the top-five 9/1 @ SkyBet
Bjorn can boast a top-5 finish already on the PGA Tour this year and that was in the much stronger Buick Invitational. He can also boast a particularly tournament on the one occasion that he has competed here - in 2002 he was 3rd with just one round to play, but a final round 77 dropped him down the leaderboard; he shot the same final round the following week to fall out of the top-10 in the Masters. So having already finished 2nd as a selection this year (Johnnie Walker Classic) when he only had to avoid water down the stretch to win, he is another who could certainly feature this week.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a few early matches all 9/10 ties lose

Tanaka over Sutton
Donald over Kuchar
Austin over Na

 

[veride]

Bell South Classic

Bell South Classic

okay... I'll try now to bets with a various stakes...

Place Only (First 5) :

Stewart Cink --> 7/1 SkyBet [2 units]
Ben Crane --> 12/1 SkyBet [1 unit]
Lee Janzen --> 16/1 Paddy Power [1 unit]
Tom Pernice Jr. --> 16/1 SkyBet [1 unit]
Kevin Suntherland --> 14/1 SkyBet [1 unit]

Win Only :

Phil Mickelson --> 6/1 Expekt [2 units]
Kevin Suntherland --> 60/1 Centrebet [0,5 unit]
Ben Crane --> 66/1 Expekt [0,5 unit]

 

[veride]

Bell South Classic

Bell South Classic

supplement :

Finish in the Top 10 :

Ben Crane --> 6/1 Paddy Power [1 unit]
Tom Pernice Jr. --> 6/1 Paddy Power [1 unit]
Lee Janzen --> 7/1 Paddy Power [1 unit]

Win Only :

Stewart Cink --> 28/1 Centrebet [0,5 unit]

I have just notice that Ben Crane win is... 69/1
in Unibet (just to be known)...

 

[gethman]

The Sugarloaf will bring the long wayward hitters, who have perhaps been struggling on the Florida swing, back into contention this week. The course has long wide fairways, so you should be seeing a load of 300 yard + drives this week. Players who can find the greens early, and then have a great week of putting will go well, so the long hitters who at least have the ability to have a good weeks putting should have big chances.
Weather forecast seems decent enough, but slight doubts about Thursday afternoon weather, so being out on course early, might prove to be an advantage on Thursday.

Jonathan Kaye, 66/1, Ladbrokes, 1.5 Pt E/W

Harrison Frazar, 100/1, SkyBet, 0.75 Pt E/W

Duffy Waldorf, 80/1, SportsTab, 0.75 Pt E/W

Niclas Fasth, 125/1, Bet365, 0.5 Pt E/W

Also had strong cases for Bjorn (40/1), Pappas (100/1), and Paulson (66/1)

 

[gethman]

Stewart Cink to beat David Toms, 9/10, Stan James, 1 Point

Always risky betting against a good player in Toms, but I dont think he is at the top of his game at the moment. Cink has an obvious big chance this week, as he is local to this course, and has a fine record around here. Toms record is hardly disgraceful either at Sugarloaf, but he is considerably shorter than Cink, and his putting is leagues below that of Stewart Cink, whose putting is amongst the best on tour.

Mike Weir to beat David Toms, 5/6, Bet365, 1 Point

Opposing Toms again. Forgiving Weir his missed cut last week, and expecting a big showing a week ahead of the Masters from Weir. Neither player are long off the tee, but Weir is always accurate, and his fairway to green shots are probably the best in the game. This matchup may well be decided on the putting surface, and will take Weir every time against Toms.

Kevin Sutherland to beat Lee Janzen, 10/11, SkyBet, 1.5 Points

Probably the best matchup available on the entire tournament. While Sutherland is not one to back to win tournaments, he is very consistent, and should always be supported in match bets. He holds a 9-2 h2h record against Janzen in his previous eleven tournaments, and has gone well here over the last three years. Janzen did finish 13th at Sugarloaf last year, but he was in better form than he is now. Not paticularly long off the tee, neither accurate, it is hard to see how he can finish ahead of the more tidy tee to green player in Sutherland.

Harrison Frazar to beat Paul Stankowski, 11/10, SportingOdds, 1 Point

Plenty of value in this one. Not expecting a bad tournament off Stankowski who went well at the Players, but it is hard to justify his odds of 8/11 to beat Frazar.
The course set up should suit the big hitting of Frazar this week, and he is longer and more accurate than Stankowski. With a big emphasis on putting, Frazar holds the shots in that department too.

 

[veride]

Tournament Matches

Tournament Matches

Stewart Cink bt Briny Baird --> 4/5 Sportingbet [2 units]
Phil Mickelson bt David Toms --> 20/33 Unibet [3 units]
Scott McCarron bt Rory Sabbatini --> 10/11 Sportingbet [1unit]
Kevin Sutherland bt Lee Janzen --> 10/11 SkyBet [1unit]
Kevin Sutherland bt Briny Baird --> 9/10 Stan James [1unit]
Kevin Sutherland bt John Huston--> 10/11 BlueSquare [1unit]
Tomas Bjorn bt John Huston --> 20/23 Pinnacle [1unit]
Skip Kendall bt Heath Slocum--> 9/10 Ladbrokes [1unit]
Ben Crane bt Luke Donald --> 17/20 Expekt [1 unit]

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Might be some longer ones get in the thick of it this week as with last year--some lesser knowns on short list Z Johnson and Hensby--Flesch and Paulson are also considerations but heading out today and out of puter access so will have none officially.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Bet365 finally got me back online on Wednesday morning. I think they were getting tired of my phone wagers of $20 e.w. here, and $6 e.w. there, and let's add $2 e.w. back over there. A special bit of thanks to Stan for the link on your site that informed me of the odds being offered, which were always current.

Thomas Bjorn(40/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet 365
Simply put, I've had my eye on Bjorn for this week since his debut in America this season at Torrey Pines, when I posted, "A change in continent may be a crushing obstacle for the No. 19 rated player in the world golf rankings, and my No.1 rated chump most overdue for a win on the face of the earth. Regardless, the simple fact I can't shake is how well the course(s) will fit the game and the eye of the Bjorn I know if he is going well." Significant bits of that apply here in what I consider a sweet spot to pop ahead of Augusta . . . Until this Monday morning when the digging started, I had no recollection of his history in this event from 2002 . . . Bjorn talked last Thursday about being very determined, and I was absorbed in what he was saying, and right then I was 98% sure he would be in my Sunday lineup of matches at Sawgrass, and despite Stewart Cink closing him out 69-70, closing birdies by Bjorn on 16 and 17 were in keeping with what I was after . . . Then there's this: On the Golf Channel on Monday morning I heard that after waiting out the finish at Sawgrass, Thomas Bjorn was one of the first to embrace Adam Scott after his win. With Bjorn much on my mind, that really intrigued me. Then I read this in a Monday newspaper: " . . . Scott's longtime girlfriend, Marie Kojzar, just happens to be Swedish and was the nanny of Tour golfer Thomas Bjorn." Que sera, sera.

Stewart Cink(25/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
In theory, I came into this season believing that "home cooking" angles often find players trying too hard and getting in their own way, and that I have been overplaying the situation before the events (especially the well known situations like this one that are obviously reflected in the available lines), but that if a guy gets untracked there is usually something genuine to build on, and there was money to be made in-running despite the greatly reduced prices. In practice, I think I'm still grabbing too many of these duds at the start. Cink's work with Butch Harmon and some nice play on Sunday at Sawgrass has suckered me in once again.

Hank Kuehne(80/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
My usually slow trigger was too late for any of the 100/1 offerings. I think this dog can hunt when the time is right.

Briny Baird(50/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Taking it to a course that suits, the three stretches of form/results that I see in his career that were most similar to the present were followed by 2nd, 5th and 8th place finishes.

On Saturday I had my eye on Paul Casey for this week, but he had other plans . . Other than sticking with a schedule that was set in advance, I don't know what Mickelson accomplishes here, win or lose. But just as I felt about Watson last year, I think Phil is back with the right putter in his bag, and when the time comes, the holes at Augusta should look about the biggest he has seen all year . . . Harrington seems the leading candidate among several to sustain the run of players getting right back in contention on the weekend after doing it the prior week, but other than wishing I could have a go with Casey, I seem to be thinking and looking in a different direction here . . . I also have a small interest in Pettersson, Tway, Price, Waldorf (84??) and Sutherland, with delusions of finessing something on Frazar in-running.

GL

 

[rrc]

One of my books has some interesting props this week...

One of my books has some interesting props this week...

Over/Under total birdies...

Mickelson 19 1/2
Huston 17 1/2
DiMarco 18 1/2
Scott 18 1/2
Toms 16 1/2
Cink 16 1/2
Baird 17 1/2
Kaye 18 1/2

Almost every under is plus $$$, obviously if your player may not make the cut that would be a huge plus.

Cut line 145
Winning score 274 1/2

I'm thinking on blanketing the unders at plus $ and hoping I get a missed cut or two.

Any thoughts are appreciated. glta

 

[veride]

Which book offers under/over lines for golfist performances ?

 

[grey]

would you golf experts not reccomend using Pinnacle for golf bets? i'd like to get in on the action but don't want to open up an account at skybet where the minimum wager is $15. right now, bet365 looks like a possible option...

 

[Agent 0659]

Have never posted my picks here. I have beeen a regular browser though. Ready to join you biys in making a little money. I have a unique perspective as I have been out there.

All bets are in units, $10.00 is 1 unit

Weir -105 vs Scott-1 unit
VanPelt Even vs Hensby-3 units
Frazar -102 vs Pappas-2 units
Petrovic -120 vs Elkington-2 units
Bjorn -125 vs Houston-1 unit
Cink +115 vs Scott-1 unit
Kuehne -115 vs Pernice-2 units
Bjorn -110 vs Baird-1 unit
Flesch -110 vs Micheel-2 units

Odds to finish in the top 3
Frazar +2100-10 to win 210

Odds to win
Beem +8000-10 to win 800

Good luck!!!!

 

[Stanley]

Welcome aboard and good luck Agent 0659

Grey, I would certainly recommend using Pinnacle for matchups. The only issue with matchups is that the more outs that you have, the greater the range of matchups available to choose from

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Mike Weir to beat Thomas Bjorn -170 @ WSEX
Opposing the two place-only outright selections with a player who is simply in a different class. Weir has a win and three top-5 finishes in six starts this year, plus two top-5 finishes in his last four visits to Sugarloaf. Bjorn represented good value for his place odds, but he should struggle to beat the Canadian on the PGA Tour.

Mike Weir to beat Stewart Cink -130 @ WSEX
Similar hedge-type play here and at better odds. Cink is a course specialist, but very rarely seals the deal. Weir has not only won this year, but is the defending Masters champion and leads Cink 8-3-0 h2h over the past year. Even in Cink's backward, Weir's class should prevail.
(also available at Five Dimes)

Shaun Micheel to beat Ben Crane -125 @ Stan James
Class should also prevail in this matchup. The reigning PGA champion has finished ahead of Crane in four of five common events this year and in his current form - a best finish of 59th in his last five events - Crane shows very little promise of putting up a stout defense of his title.

Chris DiMarco to beat Scott McCarron -140 @ Five Dimes
Opposing another winner of this event who is struggling with his game. McCarron has a best finish of 53rd in his last four events (since the Tour moved away from the West Coast) and missed the cut last year. BY contrast, DiMarco has finished in the top-10 in three of the last five years at Sugarloaf and has a number of top-10 finishes already this season.

Duffy Waldorf to beat Niclas Fasth -145 @ WSEX
Take away his final round 84 in the Players Championship and this has been a very encouraging start to the season for Waldorf. There has been no such promise from Fasth and his current h2h deficit of 1-10-0 to Waldorf looks like being extended this week.

Dennis Paulson to beat Steve Lowery -161 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Having lost his Tour Card last season, Paulson has shown great resolve in seizing his limited opportunities this season. He gave away promising positions after the second and third rounds in his first two events of the year respectively, but has since stayed in contention throughout the weekend. He has finished in the top-25 in his last four starts. With Lowery having missed four of last six cuts and both his cuts in this event (Paulson has finished 3rd and 12th in his last two starts here), there is plenty of reason to side with Paulson this week.

Bo Van Pelt to beat Kevin Na -167 @ NordicBet
There is also good reason to wide with Van Pelt this week. He has had four top-15 finishes in nine starts this year and has finished in the top-30 in both of previous visits. That compares very well to Na three of his last four cuts and has never played on this course until this week.

Bo Van Pelt to beat John Rollins -149 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
On the basis of course form, Rollins should have a good week. He has finished 5th and 6th in the last two years, but having missed his last five cuts and exited from the WGC Matchplay Championship in the 1st round, he will surely struggle to find his very erratic game this week. If he starts well, he has shown that he is a good player in contention, but he has yet to shoot a sub-par first round in 2004 so it can easily be discounted.

Paul Stankowski to beat Heath Slocum -102 @ Five Dimes [3pts]
After struggling to find anything but favourites that I like in these week's matchups, it is a relief to find one underdog that I think is wrongly priced. Slocum did win the Chrysler Classic of Tucson in February, but has not shown a great deal of form otherwise and Stankowski has finished higher in three of their five common events this year. But his advantage is much greater in relation to this course. Whereas Stankowski has made the cut in four of his last six visits, Slocum has never made a cut in any Georgia event, let alone his attempts on this title in the last two years. Stankowski should be the clear favourite in this matchup.

 

[Another Steve]

Bell South Play

Bell South Play

Mike Weir WINS BELL SOUTH CLASS +14.00

Like the fact Mike missed the cut last week. Believe he will focus to get his game in line for next weeks defense. Can't get the right match up so just go with the Outright.

 

[Spalding]

Once again gotta go with the man!

Bo Van Pelt over Mark Hensby -110 1st Round


Bo Van Pelt over Mark Hensby +100 Tourney




Usually has fast starts, sucks on Friday, gets it back on Saturday and Sunday for a solid finish!!

GL all!

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Just could not resist Cink this week. Debated for a few days if I should place an ew wager or place only. Lets live a little this week.

Cink 25 2u ew
BPappas 80 0.5u ew
ZJohnson 66 0.5u ew
Kaye 66 0.5u ew
Frazar 125 0.5u ew

I had to place a small wager on Stan's #1 ranked golfer on the euro tour.

Rashall 80 0.25u ew

Good luck everyone and remember to get your Masters wagers in on Campbell or Mickelson. Maybe if I say it enough it will come true?

 

[lal2000]

Outrights ? all ? unit ew

H Kuehne 100/1 @ Bet365
S McCarron 50/1 @ Sporting Odds
D Paulson 66/1 @ Sporting Odds
H Frazer 125/1 @ Sporting Odds
Kevin Na 150/1 @ Bet365
C Pavin 150/1 @ Victor Chandler
T Pernice 125/1 @ Bet365
JJ Henry 150/1 @ Paddy Power

Also interested in Kuchar, Barnes, Sabbatini and Lowery. Found this a very particularly difficult selection process this week.

Good Luck!

 

[lostinamerica]

MATCHUPS:

Bjorn(+140) over Cink (Tournament) for 1* @ Infinity

GL

 

[JCoverS]

Hey Spalding,

I have noticed you have been on BVP almost every week he is available. I was just wondering if it is because of his rock solid play thus far, or for some other reason, like you know him.

The reason I ask is that I am a friend of his from college and have followed his career for years now. I have been in the gallery for him at several events since he turned pro (Buy.com, Nationwide, etc.). Actually, I got to follow him around over the weekend at this very event (Bell South at Sugarloaf) in 1999 with three other buddies of mine. That was his first year on Tour and was one of only a few cuts he made that year. Needless to say, he has made great strides since then. I feel this course suits him very well and I expect another solid week out of him. Anyway, I am so happy to see his success this year, he is just a great guy. I know for a fact, he finally feels like he truly belongs out there playing with the best and his game is showing it. Just curious about your obvious "like" for Bo.

-JC