Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)
David Toms to win 16/1 e.w. available generally
With the high winds on Saturday and the baked greens on Sunday, the Players Championship played rather more like a U.S. Open than a 5th major of previous years and so it should be of some gain to have not played at the weekend, particularly with the Masters next week. So Toms does not suddenly become out-of-form because he missed a cut for the third time in four years at Sawgrass (and was 68th on the other occasion). He had finished 13th, 1st, 19th, 9th, 2nd and 3rd in his previous starts in 2006 so there can be no argument about his form. And having been a regular top-20 finisher on this course in the past - his missed cut last time out was in the midst of a run of missed cuts - he should be set for a much better week this week.
Luke Donald to win 20/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and Ladbrokes
The same goes for Donald who had won on his previous start before Sawgrass and had shown very good form throughout 2006 before missing the cut last week. And, like Toms, it was his third missed cut in the last four years at Sawgrass so it can be easily ignored. He was a top-10 finisher last time out in this event (following a missed cut at Sawgrass) and with the course rough much tougher this year than in previous years, this should suit Toms and Donald even more.
Charles Warren to finish in the top-ten 7/1 @ Stan James and Paddy Power
Warren is very much the exception here. He did play well at Sawgrass and only a double-bogey at the last hole prevented him from finishing in the top-10. He did improve his leaderboard position in every round and with a top-20 finish the previous week at Bay Hill, he comes into this event with very good momentum (bar that last hole on Sunday). With Warren not playing at the Masters next week, there should be no problem with focus. And while 100/1 at Ladbrokes is a very good price, he is a player who seems more suited to the top-10 place market, which he achieved in this event last year.
David Toms to win 16/1 e.w. available generally
With the high winds on Saturday and the baked greens on Sunday, the Players Championship played rather more like a U.S. Open than a 5th major of previous years and so it should be of some gain to have not played at the weekend, particularly with the Masters next week. So Toms does not suddenly become out-of-form because he missed a cut for the third time in four years at Sawgrass (and was 68th on the other occasion). He had finished 13th, 1st, 19th, 9th, 2nd and 3rd in his previous starts in 2006 so there can be no argument about his form. And having been a regular top-20 finisher on this course in the past - his missed cut last time out was in the midst of a run of missed cuts - he should be set for a much better week this week.
Luke Donald to win 20/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and Ladbrokes
The same goes for Donald who had won on his previous start before Sawgrass and had shown very good form throughout 2006 before missing the cut last week. And, like Toms, it was his third missed cut in the last four years at Sawgrass so it can be easily ignored. He was a top-10 finisher last time out in this event (following a missed cut at Sawgrass) and with the course rough much tougher this year than in previous years, this should suit Toms and Donald even more.
Charles Warren to finish in the top-ten 7/1 @ Stan James and Paddy Power
Warren is very much the exception here. He did play well at Sawgrass and only a double-bogey at the last hole prevented him from finishing in the top-10. He did improve his leaderboard position in every round and with a top-20 finish the previous week at Bay Hill, he comes into this event with very good momentum (bar that last hole on Sunday). With Warren not playing at the Masters next week, there should be no problem with focus. And while 100/1 at Ladbrokes is a very good price, he is a player who seems more suited to the top-10 place market, which he achieved in this event last year.
