Best prop on the board?!?!?!?

[Nickelback]

Most pass yards:

Packers minus 145


Any reason to think that Jacksonville will outgain the Packers by the air tonight???

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Originally posted by Nickelback:
Most pass yards:

Packers minus 145


Any reason to think that Jacksonville will outgain the Packers by the air tonight???

My thoughts:

Yes!

(1) If Packers are leading in the fourth quarter (they're favored, right), that means JAX will throw and GB will run more towards the end of the game. I forgot the source of this info, but teams that pass for more yardage in a game only win about 53 percent of the time SU. How often do you see the losing team run up 100+ yards passing in the final 5 minutes against a prevent defense?

(2) Packers have a running game, and will run the ball often. I expect Packers to run-pass about 50-50. Packers are not the same kind of deep pass offense they were 3-4 years ago. In fact, Jimmy Smith is a better WR than anything the Packers have.

(3) JAX has no running game (unless you think Mack is to be taken seriously). This is a team that will pass and must score points tonight to have any chance to win. They are not going to win this in a defensive struggle.

I put the odds of Packers outpassing the Jaguars at about 5-4. That means laying no more than ~120. Laying -145 is way too high, considering Brunnell is having a pretty good year and Jags MUST pass tonight to win this game.

Hope this feedback helps. Other comments welcome.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Nickelback]

Thanks Nolan. . . appreciate your thoughts on this one. . . I'll probably stay away.

I noticed under your free picks section that if you have any props for tonight that you would list them on this board. . . see any that you like?!?!

Good luck with the Pack tonight. . . I'll be on them as well

 

[nighthorse]

On wsex, you can get Brunell +20.5yds at +110. I grabbed it

 

[BAINS]

Jags will out pass the Pack, they will not run the ball tonight. Their gameplan is to pass the ball tonight. Plus Green Bay has a balanced attack with Green and they don't let Favre throw deep anymore because he's prone to throwing the ball to high and getting picked off. I look for the Jags to outpass Gb by at least 75 yards.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Originally posted by Nickelback:
Thanks Nolan. . . appreciate your thoughts on this one. . . I'll probably stay away.

I noticed under your free picks section that if you have any props for tonight that you would list them on this board. . . see any that you like?!?!
___________________

Thanks Nickleback. FWIW, I do like discussing these prop bets because it makes us focus on game plans which in turn leads to several betting options. Often times, the best bet onthe board is not a side or total, but a prop. So, it's good to see some discussion on this.

As far as PROPs tonight, I don't see much that I like. Every play where I think there is a predictability factor has a high moneyline on it. One PROP I do like purely for value is FIRST TOUCHDOWN TO BE SCORED BY: FAVRE 23-1. I am not touting this, but it may be worth a small bet. I can see it now, the Packers on the 1-yard line and Favre bootlegging around the left end for a TD. Favre srambles a bit, and is a tough comeptitor (he won't do a Kerry Collins wuss slide on us). I like Favre priced at 23-1 to score the first TD. I think his chances are much better than that.

Also, there is some dicussion in another thread about going UNDER the 7.5 first quarter total. The history shows that's a very solid play. Again, I'll probably pass on that bet, but it's worth looking at.

Best wishes to all,

Nolan Dalla

 

[yyz]

Favre will NEVER score another rushing touchdown in his carreer.

(Unless he knows it is his last game, and he wants to go out with one.)

I have seen countless times when he could have run the ball in, and tossed it anyway. I think he likes the TD Pass stat.

------------------
"You can't polish a turd."

 

[simonpjc]

Nolan....Farve 25-1 at Sportsbook.com with this added bonus tonight.....

Should Jimmy Smith Score The First TD in Sunday Nights NFL Game, we'll refund all wagers on our "Player to Score First" Future.

I made small plays on Farve @25-1 and Freeman @6-1

GLTA

 

[coldbeer4soul]

A. Green rushing 88.5 yards
over-120 under-110 VIP </b
My rationale for an UNDER:
Jax defense has only allowed more than 89 yards once.
#1 Pitt Bettis 28/16
#2 Tenn George 79/20
#3 Cleve White 64/23
#4 Sea Alexander 176/31
#5 Buff Henry 63/27
#6 Balt Brookins 82/19
#7 Tenn George 70/22
#8 Cinn Dillon 58/17
#9 Pitt Bettis 52/21
#10 Balt Brookins 82/32.
Although I recognize Green has gone over 89 in 4 of his five games.(Vikes,Bucs,Bears and Lions) Atlanta held him to 62.

 

[OMAR]

Now if you're are taking passing yards props, be sure to get Jacksonville, not Brunell.

Brunell will be under much pressure, and may not even finish the game.

 

[Beatrix Potter]

Nolan,

What do you think about the OVER tonight, I'm leaning towards the OVER

 

[simonpjc]

Nolan....Last week McCardell had 6 catches for 80 yds against the best D in the nfl (Balt) With the double team on Smith, that you made mention of, would you think over 5.5 catches at even money would represent good value?

GLTA

 

[yyz]

Originally posted by yyz:
Favre will NEVER score another rushing touchdown in his carreer.

I'm getting tired of eating my words tonight, so I'm gonna shut up!

[This message has been edited by yyz (edited 12-04-2001).]