Bet of the year for me. . . Final Four

[Nickelback]

Perhaps I shouldn't be so ready to say this will be my bet of the year, but I seriously doubt that we will see as much value with the other Final Four game as we do with Indiana/Oklahoma.

I will be scrambling around for all available reserves (nothing too overboard, but enough) and placing a wager on the Sooners no matter the line. I have seen the line at 4.5 and is has already been bet up to 5.5 and higher. I will take this line as high as 8. Anything over 8 and I'll probably play this one as a strong wager (I assume the line will not even be close to 8 this early, but wouldn't be surprised if it jumps throughout the week). Will probably spend some time tomorrow looking for the best possible line and taking it before the line climbs.

I'll be sure to list my thoughts and reasoning behind this play in the next couple days. . .

Confidence is VERY HIGH!

 

[ddubs]

I think Coverdale's status is going to be a HUGE factor. His ankle looked bad on TV, but in truth that's what all our ankles look like when we sprain it playing b-ball, we just don't have instant replay playing pick-up. The problem with him, though, is that he's already nursing the same sprained ankle. But I'd imagine unless he totally ripped his ligaments, he'll be playing in the game. Tough call.

GL, Nickel.

 

[ddubs]

As much as I wish IU was eliminated right off the bat, and want to just unleash my bankroll on Oklahoma. Don't you think that's exactly what the public will be doing? Especially with that unbelievable shooting performance, they've got to cool down from beyond the arc, right? But I've seen plenty of IU games in the Big10 this year, these boys can seriously light it up, and keep it up for 3, 4 games. It wouldn't surprise me to see them shooting 50% or better in the next game.

Not knocking on your pick, bud, just a friendly thoughts and information exchange.

 

[west coast guru]

Nickel I definetly agree with this. I am hammering and will be hammering this one big. I have been on the oklahoma bandwagon every since I saw them shut down a great kansas team in the conference tourney. This game has a blow out written all over it. Oklahoma has way to much d. They contest every shot and will be way to quick for indiana to handle. Indiana could not stop gates how are they going to stop oklahomas inside game. I disagree ddubs I think Indiana will be lucky to shoot 30% from the three point stripe in this game. This d is for real and they will suffocate Indiana. Indiana turned the ball over when kent put any kind of pressure on them. Oklahoma will roll easy in this one. This is a 10+ point game. The hoosiers have not seen this kind of quickness before. The brothers are to quick for the white boys and thus dominate.

 

[Nickelback]

No ddubs, I appreciate your thoughts on the game. . .

First thoughts on this game are that Indiana is incredibly well coached and do not make very many mistakes. However, they don't have that spark. They beat Duke because the Devils let down slightly with the lead they had thinking the Hoosiers would settle for the loss. I expected Duke to be a little more physical against the Hoosiers which probably would have done them in, but they weren't. We will not have to worry about this from the Sooners. They will play tough D for 40 minutes. No chance the Hoosiers shoot over 50% against this defense for the entire game.

Once again, always the slight possibility that the Sooners have just a horrible day. But I think the chances of this are very slim. The Sooners are too physical and too quick for this Hoosier team IMO.

Still more thoughts to come. . .

 

[ddubs]

Well, I'll add more thoughts as you add more, as well, then. I want to go with Oklahoma a great deal, just like you. But I want to make sure that I'm backing Oklahoma because it's a solid play, not because I'm a Purdue die-hard. Since there will be 2 games left come next week, we can really pick this game apart.

Hoosiers' D ain't so shabby, either. Allowing 62 ppg, 40% shooting. The last time an opponent shot over 45% was Feb 2, in Minny where they collapsed in the 2nd 1/2 and blew a DD lead at 1/2 time. But Minny's been known this year for being a team that couldn't win away from home, so I won't hold that against IU.

W / L ATS H A CONF AF AA
Indiana 24-11 19-14-1 16-4 8-7 12-6 70.9 62.5
Oklahoma 31-4 16-15-0 23-0 8-4 17-3 78.4 64.4

Defense Agst. FG% 3P% Reb.
Indiana 62.4 41.0 36.6 30.0
Okl. 64.4 40.3 29.2 30.6

Pardon the terrible cut and paste. Couldn't get them lined up.

 

[mcity]

real nice....

real nice....

that is a real slick analysis there "west coast guru"....why don't you keep your racial angles to yourself. I too think Indiana is in trouble in this game because of the health of coverdale...I don't need you telling me it is because of Indiana's "white boys." As a resident and alum of this great state and institution, I find it rather insulting. I totally understand that Oklahoma is very physical...but you cannot tell me that there quickness is anymore impressive than Duke's, who by the way starts 4 black players. If coverdale is healthy, Indiana has shown that they are more than capable of hanging with anyone in the country, period. Obviously if coverdale isn't 100% and able to handle the ball, Oklahoma could roll.....but it will be because Indiana doesn't have another solid and experienced ballhandler at pointguard....not because the "brothers" beat up on the poor 'ol "white boys."

 

[dr. freeze]

OU differs from Duke in many respects......they play good all around defense and have physical presence down low.....Boozer is a "soft" player in my opinion and has no concept of how to guard the post -- well maybe he has a concept but he cannot do it....Duke had no matchup for Jeffries while OU has about 4 guys that can guard him....

OU just suffocates people and at the same time can score with almost anyone....Duke played pathetic defense all year and it finally caught up with them....that is how Indiana came back.....that and Duke missed lots of shots down the stretch....

I would be careful though.....this game has GTown Villanova written all over it and those white boys just may be able to pitch the perfect game.......

Big 12 teams play unreal perimeter defense and challenge most shots.....if Kansas cannot get their offense going against OU I have a hard time seeing how Indiana can.....Indy is gonna have to shoot a high percentage from outside the arc to stay competitve and fi they do not, it will be blowout time......already we have seen Gilbert and Gardner for all practical purposes shut down and likely Indiana's guns will hae a very difficult time getting things going.....

Do not see OU overlooking this team....they are as mentally tough as they come -- have to be to get through Sampson's practices......Indiana plays good defense too -- but playing good defense is not enough against OU....OU hangs onto the ball and more than likely will not shoot a high percentage anyway so that is not a big factor.....

One other factor that will loom large is how OU can go to the glass.....will refs let them play, or will they call tickytack fouls....Mizzou was able to stay close with closely called game even with bad freethrow shooting and Gilbert being off....Indy should be able to hang if refs get OU guys in foul trouble and call this one close.....I doubt OU will rebound like Kansas did against Oregon because IU is a little more funamentally sound and actually will block out -- something we did not see from Oregon, but OU sends 3 guys to glass as opposed to 2 from Kansas.....

 

[Nickelback]

Question:

When has Indiana played a team this year with a decent defense?

Answer:

I can't find one! Perhaps Marquette. . . but certainly none of them are as talented on D as the Sooners.

Oklahoma has been able to shut down teams (especially from 3 point range) like Missouri and Kansas. . . both of these teams have offenses far superior to Indiana. What are the Hoosiers gonna bring to the table in order to put enough points on the table? I've been looking for an answer but can't find one! The Sooners were able to hold Missouri to 32% shooting from three point range. I can't find a reason why the Hoosiers should be expected to top this percentage.

I feel the shooting performance by Indiana is enough for the Sooners to make sure that this doesn't happen on Saturday. If Indiana shot horrible yet found a way to beat Kent St, then I would be worried that the Sooners may not get up for this game on the defensive end and may look ahead. But if anything, Indiana's last game has to be considered a wake up call for opposing defenses and none better than Oklahoma's.

With a week to prepare for this game, I find it HIGHLY unlikely that the Hoosiers will be able to come even close to their offensive performance against Kent St. However, even if they do, the Sooners find a way to stay in games. For example, Arizona. . . first half the Cats shoot an incredible percentage yet are only ahead by 4 at the half.

Both teams are VERY well coached. . . Indiana executes their game plan without a lot of turnovers. The Sooners crash the boards and force other teams to take shots with a hand in their face as they can't always find open looks. I believe the difference will come from speed and talent which both favor the Sooners huge.

In the end, one could believe it to be a miracle that the Hoosiers were able to take down the Duke Blue Devils. . . but I submit that a similar performance against the Sooners will STILL not be enough to win this game. I honestly can't find a reason to believe that the Hoosiers stay in this game. . . they were able to find ways to win in the Big 10, but it is apparent to me that this conference was below standards this year. It is also rare for "mediocre" teams to find a way to beat decidedly superior teams more than once in a short time span. Arizona in 97 is one of those rare occasions when they took down three #1 seeds on the way to winning it all. I just see the odds decidedly against the Hoosiers given the large amount of time to prepare for this game and the fact that Indiana is coming off an incredible shooting performance. Perfect spot for a blowout IMO and this one should be over midway through the 2nd half.

Sorry for the long post, but a lot to add!

 

[dr. freeze]

that Az team mediocre????

Terry, Simon, Bibby, Dickerson????

3 very solid NBA players and Simon perhaps was the best on the team???

lol.....give your team some credit Nickelback.......thought they had someone on low post too that was not too bad but forgot who it was....i remember edgerson coming off the bench, but they had another guy that held his own against LaFrentz that year.....

 

[Nickelback]

That other guy was AJ Bramlett. . . stepped it up huge!

I guess I look at the tournament as teams that are fortunate enough to side step a few land mines! If you step on enough, one is bound to go off. For Arizona to face three #1 seeds and beat them all is something that took a lot of luck and obviously solid basketball. When I think about Indiana in this same/similar position, I just think it is highly unlikely that we will see this Hosier team beat another top team like Oklahoma which probably should have been the #1 seed in the West.

I didn't mean to beat down my team! Just wanted to show that sure it has been done once, but for Indiana to even get to the final game will take even more than the shooting performance they had against Kent St. IMO!

I'm also looking hard at taking the Sooners at 2:1 odds to win the championship. They should be able to take down this Hoosier team and then face a Kansas or Maryland team which will have to survive their own war on Saturday to get to Monday.