Betting a Big Favorite that's Trailing at Half...Is it a profitable angle?

[turkoman1963]

you like a -14 favorite but don't bet it. At half, they are down 10 and the second half line is -7. Suddenly, your -14 favorite has become +3 for the game. This seems lika a good angle. Yet, in the past week, I can't tell you the number of games where the big favorite not only couldn't cover the second half spread, but lost outright on the second half ML.

Do people play this angle and have they had success of late?

 

[stwoody]

I have a lot of success playing this angle! It hits at a high %.

 

[stwoody]

Need to add that it seems to be a better angle when the heavy favorite is at home and down at the half........too much pride at home, and like you said, often teams will come back and cover the original spread.

 

[BGFalcon]

Suddenly, your -14 favorite has become +3 for the game.

Not really. That +3 was set based on additional from the first half. Some teams have more quit in them than others, others have not had experience playing from behind, etc. In addition, there are only 20 minutes left in the game so there is less time to cover the number.

 

[s_dooley24]

you like a -14 favorite but don't bet it. At half, they are down 10 and the second half line is -7. Suddenly, your -14 favorite has become +3 for the game. This seems lika a good angle. Yet, in the past week, I can't tell you the number of games where the big favorite not only couldn't cover the second half spread, but lost outright on the second half ML.

Do people play this angle and have they had success of late?

If a 14pt fav is down 10 at home I would expect a halftime line closer to 8 or 9 then 7

 

[SANKS]

example I can think of is Kentucky this wkend, I think they were -5 or so and down I beleive 13 at half at home. They should have covered for the entire game but ended up getting backdoored and only winning by two, but they easily covered for the 2nd half. It seems like this hits at a fairly high percentage.

 

[turkoman1963]

A bunch of games did NOT cover lately. Iona -11 for the game was just one of the latest when it failed to cover. Gonna track this more and more.

 

[HighFlyingKilla]

The main factor in that angle is how well the team your betting responds in those situations.

 

[nole47]

i would say it hits at least 70% for the season with this. play a team that is losing at the half when favored by 10+, AT HOME. teams come back at home, usually not on the road. most people cant bet halftimes, or dont, and miss out on this fabulous trend.

 

[turkoman1963]

will be interesting tonight as some big favorites are struggling again.

 

[Dullamite]

I noticed Iowa -8 against Purdue is down 8 at half time -
The half time line was Iowa -7 so with your philosophy a game line of really Iowa +1.

Took Purdue (+7 2H) - we'll see what happens.

I remember thinking the favorite Indiana would play a strong second half against Minnesota and got smoked.