Betting in Talladega
By Bodog
Who?s the most successful driver in NASCAR? Jimmie Johnson may be the four-time and defending Sprint Cup champion, not to mention AP?s Athlete of the Year for 2009, but last year?s highest-paid driver was none other than Dale Earnhardt Jr. He earned an estimated $30 million on salary, endorsements and licensing according to Forbes magazine. Johnson did quite well for himself with $23 million, but Earnhardt is entrenched as the sport?s No. 1 attraction ? even if he hasn?t beaten the NASCAR odds in two years.
If Earnhardt is going to end his losing streak, Talladega Superspeedway is the place to do it. Earnhardt performs better on tracks with long straightaways where restrictor plates are mandated for safety; he has five victories in 20 Cup appearances at Talladega, although none in his last 10. Moving from DEI to Hendrick Motorsports in 2008 has yet to change matters. Earnhardt has a better vehicle with the No. 88 Chevrolet Impala, and he?s starting higher up on the grid than he was before the move, but Junior only has a second-place finish at last year?s Aaron?s 499 to show for it. He?ll get another crack at it this Sunday (1:00 p.m., FOX).
Earnhardt finds himself atop the NASCAR betting lines for Sunday at 10-1, tied with Kyle Busch of Joe Gibbs Racing and Tony Stewart of Stewart Haas Racing. None of these three men has won a Cup race thus far in 2010. Busch and Stewart can?t claim to have Earnhardt?s fan base or his reputation for restrictor-plate brilliance, but Busch has taken the checkered flag eight times since Junior?s last Cup victory, including the 2008 Aaron?s 499. Stewart has five wins in that span including the 2008 AMP Energy 500 at Talladega.
Busch and Stewart also don?t have the weight of the betting public on their shoulders. ?Expectations are so high with (Earnhardt) that if he?s not winning, then the world is not right,? former Cup champion and current television analyst Darrell Waltrip said last month. Texas Motor Speedway president Eddie Gossage echoed those remarks earlier this week. ?If Dale Jr. won some races, things would be better,? Gossage told ESPN before Denny Hamlin spoiled things by taking Monday?s Samsung Mobile 500 in Fort Worth. Earnhardt finished eighth. Stewart crashed out, Busch was third and Johnson was second, narrowly missing out on his fourth points race win of the season.
Now that they?ve been racing on the same team in the same unibody Chevrolet, the results speak for themselves ? Johnson and his crew are outperforming Earnhardt. So is the team surrounding Jeff Gordon. He?s the one man who can measure up historically to Junior on the superspeedways, winning six of 34 races at Talladega (most recently the 2007 UAW-Ford 500) and six out of 35 at Daytona. That?s a profitable return rate at odds of 11-1. Johnson is next on the market at 12-1; he tends to perform better on mid-size tracks like Texas, but Johnson won this event in 2006 and he leads the 2010 Sprint Cup standings by a healthy margin.
Mark Martin (20-1), the other (and too often ignored) member of Hendrick?s Four Horsemen, is enjoying a career renaissance at age 51 after leaving DEI in 2009 and winning five Cup races to end a four-year slump. However, none of those five victories was on a superspeedway. This just isn?t Martin?s cup of tea ? he?s 2-for-44 lifetime at Talladega, last winning there in 1997, and he?s 0-for-50 at Daytona dating back to 1982.
Believe it or not, there is life outside Hendrick Motorsports. Hamlin is Busch?s teammate at Joe Gibbs Racing and the winner of two of the last three Cup events. The third was won by Stewart?s teammate, Ryan Newman. Their success has opened up the second tier of the betting market ? Hamlin is available at 16-1 as we go to press, and Newman is priced at 20-1. Jamie McMurray is also available at 16-1 in his Earnhardt Ganassi Racing Chevrolet; of his four Cup victories since his 2002 debut, three were in restrictor-plate races, most recently the 2010 Daytona 500. The fact that McMurray has enjoyed superspeedway success on two different teams (Roush Racing was his home until this year) suggests he does have some facility for this specific environment. And working with Junior?s former team can?t hurt, either.
By Bodog
Who?s the most successful driver in NASCAR? Jimmie Johnson may be the four-time and defending Sprint Cup champion, not to mention AP?s Athlete of the Year for 2009, but last year?s highest-paid driver was none other than Dale Earnhardt Jr. He earned an estimated $30 million on salary, endorsements and licensing according to Forbes magazine. Johnson did quite well for himself with $23 million, but Earnhardt is entrenched as the sport?s No. 1 attraction ? even if he hasn?t beaten the NASCAR odds in two years.
If Earnhardt is going to end his losing streak, Talladega Superspeedway is the place to do it. Earnhardt performs better on tracks with long straightaways where restrictor plates are mandated for safety; he has five victories in 20 Cup appearances at Talladega, although none in his last 10. Moving from DEI to Hendrick Motorsports in 2008 has yet to change matters. Earnhardt has a better vehicle with the No. 88 Chevrolet Impala, and he?s starting higher up on the grid than he was before the move, but Junior only has a second-place finish at last year?s Aaron?s 499 to show for it. He?ll get another crack at it this Sunday (1:00 p.m., FOX).
Earnhardt finds himself atop the NASCAR betting lines for Sunday at 10-1, tied with Kyle Busch of Joe Gibbs Racing and Tony Stewart of Stewart Haas Racing. None of these three men has won a Cup race thus far in 2010. Busch and Stewart can?t claim to have Earnhardt?s fan base or his reputation for restrictor-plate brilliance, but Busch has taken the checkered flag eight times since Junior?s last Cup victory, including the 2008 Aaron?s 499. Stewart has five wins in that span including the 2008 AMP Energy 500 at Talladega.
Busch and Stewart also don?t have the weight of the betting public on their shoulders. ?Expectations are so high with (Earnhardt) that if he?s not winning, then the world is not right,? former Cup champion and current television analyst Darrell Waltrip said last month. Texas Motor Speedway president Eddie Gossage echoed those remarks earlier this week. ?If Dale Jr. won some races, things would be better,? Gossage told ESPN before Denny Hamlin spoiled things by taking Monday?s Samsung Mobile 500 in Fort Worth. Earnhardt finished eighth. Stewart crashed out, Busch was third and Johnson was second, narrowly missing out on his fourth points race win of the season.
Now that they?ve been racing on the same team in the same unibody Chevrolet, the results speak for themselves ? Johnson and his crew are outperforming Earnhardt. So is the team surrounding Jeff Gordon. He?s the one man who can measure up historically to Junior on the superspeedways, winning six of 34 races at Talladega (most recently the 2007 UAW-Ford 500) and six out of 35 at Daytona. That?s a profitable return rate at odds of 11-1. Johnson is next on the market at 12-1; he tends to perform better on mid-size tracks like Texas, but Johnson won this event in 2006 and he leads the 2010 Sprint Cup standings by a healthy margin.
Mark Martin (20-1), the other (and too often ignored) member of Hendrick?s Four Horsemen, is enjoying a career renaissance at age 51 after leaving DEI in 2009 and winning five Cup races to end a four-year slump. However, none of those five victories was on a superspeedway. This just isn?t Martin?s cup of tea ? he?s 2-for-44 lifetime at Talladega, last winning there in 1997, and he?s 0-for-50 at Daytona dating back to 1982.
Believe it or not, there is life outside Hendrick Motorsports. Hamlin is Busch?s teammate at Joe Gibbs Racing and the winner of two of the last three Cup events. The third was won by Stewart?s teammate, Ryan Newman. Their success has opened up the second tier of the betting market ? Hamlin is available at 16-1 as we go to press, and Newman is priced at 20-1. Jamie McMurray is also available at 16-1 in his Earnhardt Ganassi Racing Chevrolet; of his four Cup victories since his 2002 debut, three were in restrictor-plate races, most recently the 2010 Daytona 500. The fact that McMurray has enjoyed superspeedway success on two different teams (Roush Racing was his home until this year) suggests he does have some facility for this specific environment. And working with Junior?s former team can?t hurt, either.
