Betting Run Lines (-1.5)

[Dr Raider]

Guys,

Betting the favorite on the run line of -1.5 looks like it should be a good long term play. . . .

Please post your opinion

It may work better for certain teams than others. . . .
The question that always comes up is, "Will history repeat itself ?"
Not always

Teams that score a lot of runs or are outscored by a lot of runs should be a good play
The first one that comes to mind in the WSox
They have outscored their opponents in their wins by more than 100 runs so far, while in their losses, they have been outscored by more than 100 runs

The reason I think this is important is because it is so hard to dig yourself out of a hole or to win long term if you have to lay the wood betting favorites

Your thoughts ?

 

[taoist]

As Jack would say...run lines are EVIL!!!

 

[nighthorse]

You're gonna need a helluva lot of Xanax if you drop a couple of 1 run wins in a row............

I don't know how the real pros around here feel about it......but I like to do it every now and then. I'm trying it today against Stein for KC only because I've seen him fail miserably in a starting role so often. I would think it would be safer to do runlines in games where you expect a lot of runs.......like a White Sox/Rangers game.

 

[superbook]

I am no pro, but FWIW I play the runline when I like a -250 or higher favorite and the Total on the game is double digits.

Or it's the Yankees vs TB.

- Jon

 

[Wolf SJD]

I play runlines when I think a team will win the game and I can get +150 or higher. Other than that I stay away.

 

[Dr Raider]

nighthorse,

one of the reasons I asked is because the first few times I have tried it, my teams have won but not covered -

so far, i am off to a terrible start but long term, it may pay off -
that's why I asked

run lines may be evil,
but betting chalk may be more evil

GL

 

[BASON]

Don't post often, but will add my two cents here.

Run lines can offer good value versus the money line in many games. I think too many players use the run line to reduce the vig on large favorites. Personally, I think this is a losing play over time and not the right reason to play a run line.

I do not play the bases nearly as much as I used to, but I used to look for value in small ML favorites (-120 to -140), especially at home for teams that have better bullpens than others. If you have the time, look at the run line versus different ML plays over a two or three week period and you can start to see the differences based on home/away, pitching staffs and even umpires. If you are a stat nut, this becomes an interesting analysis.

The problem I have with being a consistent run line player is taking the +1.5 runs. In my opinion, if you consistently play the run line, you need to play both sides and taking the 1.5 can be ard to swallow for most bettors.

Overall, run lines can be very good plays, but I say focus on certain situations and play them. For example, when I was a heavier player, I used to play -1.5 run lines in the +140 to +170 range and parlay them.

 

[Valuist]

I rarely play run lines and when I do, its usually a road dog against an offensively challenged favorite (i.e. the Cubs at home on a day the wind is blowing in). Then getting a run and a half is huge. There's only a handful of pitchers bad enough where I'd lay a run and a half; and I'd only do it if that team was on the road and guaranteed 9 at bats.