Betting the Bullshxt Game

[Nolan Dalla]

Okay, now FIFA gives us the most ridiculous sporting contest devised since synchornized swimming and the Playoff Bowl (the NFL used to pit the losers in a third place game back in the 1960s). We get that earth shattering spectacle of sporting drama -- "THE LOSERS CUP" comprised of Souoth Korea and Turkiye.

Seriously, both of these teams should be very proud of their accomplishments making it to the semi-finals (with a break or two, both teams could very well have won). But now, they play a meaningless game that only three types of people on planet earth will be interested in -- Koreans, Turks, and gamblers. Okay, maybe insomniacs, too.

That's where we come in. Before dismissing this soccer match as un-cappable, keep in mind that South Korea will be at home playing in front of a sea of red. The national team may very well use this as an exhibition and open up the scoring. Turkiye, famed for it's great defense, could also very well experience a loss of defensive intensity and try to go all out with a dramatic finish in front of the world stage.

There is some precedent for a higher scoring games in the consolation game, than ususal. The Losers Cup has produced SIX overs in the last SIX games. That means every game has produced 3 goals or more, with the scoring average at 4 goals.

Here are past results:

1998 Croatia 2 Holland 1
1994 Sweden 4 Bulgaria 0
1990 Italy 2 England 1
1986 France 2 Belgium 2
1982 Poland 3 France 2
1978 Brazil 2 Italy 1

The downside is that I have been burned looking at historical precedents to determine future outcomes in World Cup handicapping. The trend of betting OVERS in the first round put me $1500 in the hole. But in this case there does seem to be a decent argument that the defenses will lose some of their focus and both teams will concentrate on finding the net. Neither team has anything to gain with a scoreless tie. The Koreans in particular should be aiming for the net to throw a big party for the home fans.

Looking to go OVER 2.5 goals.

Any thoughts or counterarguments?

Nolan Dalla

 

[Cartman88]

Nolan,

We all seem to be thinking alike on this game.

I was going to look at some historical data on the 3rd vs 4th playoffs but Anders beat me to it.

Here his a post he made a couple of days ago which backs up what you have said and adds a couple of other factors eg fatigue/motivation.

I am loathe to play any "overs" after the past couple of weeks but it certainly looks the value play here.

Thought smugly to myself _ well, only an absolute sucker would have a bet on the 3rd v 4th place match at the World Cup. After all, no one's interested in kissing their sister (unless your sister is Angelina Jolie...) and there are a lot of intangibles to work with.
Then I started really thinking. Does the bookmaker think the same way and put out a line that may be able to be exploited? Are there angles and trends that we can find that may give us an edge?
So I did a little homework looking at three of factors _ motivation, fatigue and totals as I went back thru the last seven 3 v 4 playoffs off the modern era.

TOTALS:
In that time, the key fact to emerge which I'm sure most of us strongly suspected, is that the OVER is very dominant if there is a 2.5 goals line.
The last six games have all gone over the total _ the last under was Poland's 1-0 win over Brazil at West Germany '74.
Since then the goal tallies have been 3, 5, 4 (6 incl extra-time), 3, 4 and 3.
The reasons are fairly obvious too _ the fear of losing that drives teams particularly thru the knockout stage no longer exists. Defence goes out the window priority-wise in preference to providing a spectacle for the fans and displaying the skills that have been reined in until now (unless u r Brazil).
Another ingredient _ unfamiliarity. No longer will most sides field their first choice defence which has developed a trusted understanding of each other's roles. Instead, the whole side could be virtual strangers to each other as a combination. This may also hinder the fluidity off the offence but can be balanced by off-the-cuff sparks of flair and illuminated by defensive lapses.

FATIGUE: Most semifinal matches _ or the last game of group play when the 2nd rd used to work under that system _ are played on the same day, unlike this year's tournament.
In the 2 instances of teams playing on different days in the past 7 tournaments, there's been a win and a loss to the team with the extra day's rest _ Holland lost to Croatia in '98, Italy bt England in '90.

MOTIVATION: Usual theory is that one team may have a little more to play for in this game. It occurs when u may have a team favoured to win the World Cup or at least a real contender gets knocked out in the semi and faces a team that was an upstart in the last four and is delighted with what it has done already.
Team A, the favoured side, doesn't give a rats ass about this game after having its dream shattered, but Team B, the lesser light, is still on a high and wants to celebrate one last fling at its memorable big dance.
So how does the theory work on holding water?
By my amateur reckoning, the "Most Devastated" (MD) team has lost two and won one of the 3 v 4 playoffs when u could definitely separate the two sides into the above categories. That is: Holland lost to Croatia in '98, France lost to Poland in '82, while the win went to France in extra-time over Belgum in '86.
I don't think we can categorise a MD team here _ both teams did better than expected. So it's not a great help for handicapping this match but useful info to keep around for 2006...lol...
I nominated a favourite (without past prices/lines) for the past 7 matches as another exercise and came out with, somewhat surprisingly, 4 wins for the favourites and three for the dogs.

CONCLUSION: Is there any edge here for us bettors in this match?
I believe there is on the total, with an OVER play.
The line has been set (approx) at $2.13/$1.75; based mostly on what has gone previous in recent matches.
Sth Korea's totals in the playoffs were 3 goals in 3 games (not incl extra time) and 5 in 3 1st rd games _ every single game has gone under!
Turkey went over in 2 of 3 of their group matches then when the pressure heated up there were three consecutive unders (1, 0, 1).
But remember the unders were a standout 12-2 in the playoffs _ a number/percentage well out of synce with the past two Cups and one that should come back to the mean in time.
And as has been discussed, this game should see a totally different approach taken by both sides.
Yes, there'll be a lot of the 'stars' missing _ inJured, rested, suspended. But there'll be bench players busting a gut to impress and that likelihood of disorganised defences.
With the last 6 games going over, my onl fear is that this total could resort to the mean too. But the nice price sways me towards a value bet.

PLAY OVER 2.5 GOALS $2.15/+115 (best price I found)

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Cartman:

Thanks for the repost of Ander's thoughts. It was very helpful.

ND

 

[vanbasten]

came in here to post on playing over the 2.5 in the 3rd place match @ +100. looks like everyone is thinking alike.

good luck.

 

[Bandit HVG]

thanks for the post guys, i found it at +130 at wagerstreet:
Sat, 6/29/02 6:47 AM World Cup Soccer
Straight Wager: Over 2.5 [+130] (Entire Game)
Risk: 120.00 Pays: 156.00 Status: PENDING
South Korea vs. Turkey to be held on Sat, 6/29 at 7:00 AM ($120.00)

before that at carib +105:
6/29 5:12 am -$200.00 Placed Straight Bet to win $210.00
South Korea vs Turkey (World Cup 3rd Place)(Regulation Time Only) Over 2.5 +105



thank you